Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6610 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 8:33 pm Post subject: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
I wanted to start a thread regarding the state of modern ag around the world and the situations and changes people here at PO.com see/read taking place.
We have more than one thread about the various causes, effects and proposed solutions but this thread is about the current state of affairs affecting our food supply from the PO perspective. Please, lets keep to the current state of affairs and not proposed solutions.
There has been a big shift in food production in the last couple of years in the US. We here at PO talk about this and that but people with their lifes' work at stake have went out on a limb to buy land, equipment and invest in distilleries because of a War on Foreign Oil.
I think we are feeling the effects of subsidized ethanol consumption in our food prices but what I fear more is an abrupt cutting of the subsidies . _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:03 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Pops wrote:
There has been a big shift in food production in the last couple of years in the US. We here at PO talk about this and that but people with their lifes' work at stake have went out on a limb to buy land, equipment and invest in distilleries because of a War on Foreign Oil.
I think we are feeling the effects of subsidized ethanol consumption in our food prices but what I fear more is an abrupt cutting of the subsidies .
That is so true Pops. It's a shame and it goes to show what can happen when the hysteria of finally making big bucks on a commodity can shadow the need to look at all the angles before you jump in. I didn't learn of the folly of biofuels and their effect on food prices until I got here and looked around. I was very excited about biodiesel and even considered making some at one point. It's too bad those people that did invest didn't look closer into the details or were better informed.
It's probably because those selling it to them either didn't know or wouldn't tell the truth. It's hard to say. I see a number of farms with the signs at the road that they're proud to be part of the local biofuel co-op and I wonder how that's working for them now.
I was at a farm dealership in the Brantford area the other night and I asked the counter help what the current spring crop buzz was like and he replied 'dismal'. Everyone is afraid to commit to the crop.
A cousin of mine that is a cash cropper isn't moving too fast to get started this year but I haven't talked to him recently to see why. I might do that but I'd hate to see a grown man cry.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:12 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Don't these people ever learn? Cellulosic is a bigger joke than starch-based gimmicks. It doesn't work period. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:38 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
With a population growing at 75 million a year, it shouldn't be too long before corn farmers are getting $100 a bushel anyway just based on pure demand.
Joined: May 09, 2005 Posts: 97 Location: Western Washington
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 12:15 am Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
They may not need to pull the plug on the ethanol sub. - http://www.slate.com/id/2190878/?from=rss
With the price of corn going up and the price of fuel going up, it is a difficult business to be in right now. Energy/money invested is as much as the return or more.
Joined: Aug 11, 2005 Posts: 736 Location: Eastern NC
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 7:35 am Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Aside from ethanol, your question was about changes people here at PO.com see/read taking place. I think history will give us some perspective. Not looking at solutions but problems faced. As we all know here diesel fuel drives the modern farm. I think there will be less tillage depending on cost of ag chemicals. Probably more crop rotation. Looking at the fields here in eastern NC folks are planting from fencepost to fencepost, sometimes actually planting up to the edge of the road.
What I fear is the escalating loss of the trees. I just can't seem to get past the thought that using living plants for fuel will and is stupidly killing those things that provide the oxygen we need to exist. _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6492 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 9:33 am Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Big Ag must die off and replaced by small ag, 19th century style.
The essential shift that is taking place is that instead of producing food that is incredibly cheap and abundant, Big Ag will be producing food that is incredibly expensive, and with a supply and distribution system that is increasingly unreliable and uneven. Although I don't believe in straight-line extrapolations, it's easy to see how the current arrangement is headed for certain collapse.
Farming as we have it is all about giant machinery, herbicides, pesticides, chemical fertilizers, immense processing plants, refrigeration, and the trucking industry and its associated infrastructure. All almost completely dependent on oil and other fossil fuels.
It can't continue; but the changes that are needed in agriculture must be accompanied by a total revolution in how people live and work.
We need a world of small, walkable towns, surrounded by cottage industries, surrounded in turn by small farms run by people and not corporations, surrounded in turn by forest and wilderness. All connected by trains. I've been saying this for years, but we haven't moved one inch closer to that world, at least not in the US. Other than the ethanol craze, some windmills and solar panels, and greater awareness and application of various conservation measures, I don't see any revolution happening, Pops. The corn planters are getting greased up and ready to roll, just as always this time of year.
Like any other mega-business, Big Ag will resist REAL change with all the power and bucks at its disposal. Institutions don't let go, they are crushed by factors they eventually can no longer control. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6610 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 12:31 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Thanks for all the thoughtful replies, I've heard that the planting progress on corn is quite a bit behind right now because of all the wet weather.
The problem with corn planted late is it then matures in the dry hot season substantially reducing harvest since the ears don't fill out and even the kernels don't get as big.
----
Increased farm income, rising inflation,
readily available credit, and low to negative
real interest rates led to sustained
increases in farmland values and in outlays
for farm machinery and equipment.
Because financial assets lose value with
inflation while real assets gain value, rising
inflation encourages investors to shift
their holdings from financial to real
assets. Such a shift exacerbates the loss
for financial assets but strengthens the
gain for real assets, including farmland.
Sound familiar?
Here is the situation that lead to the bust of the '80's:
Quote:
By the early 1980’s, many of the factors
that spurred the boom were reversing.
Commodity prices fell, input prices and
interest rates rose, export demand turned
down, and farm income declined. Many
farmers who had bought land or made
other long-term investments—especially
those who used debt financing—now had
difficulty meeting their other financial
obligations or even making a living.
Colorado Valley mentioned the increasing population generating demand. Today there is big demand for pork both here and abroad and it is no surprise since pork is fantastically cheap. The last report I saw said hog farmers are getting $75-$90 a head on hogs they paid more than $200 to raise.
They were fat and sassy until corn went through the roof and I'd bet they took on a good deal of debt for capital improvements. Even thought the packers can't get enough the price hasn't budged.
So one of two things will happen:
The producer goes broke, the supply goes down, consumer prices rise and demand falls.
or
The farm gate price goes up, the consumer price goes up and demand falls.
Looks to me like either way consumer prices rise, affecting demand for pork and because piggies like corn and lots of it; directly impacting the corn market.
Just because there are more people doesn't necessarily mean they will be all eating the same expensive foods, probably the opposite considering the negative influence higher energy prices are bound to have on food budgets. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6492 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 12:40 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Just as an aside, in warmer, Japanese beetle zones, planting corn late may be the way to go (this applies to small-scale growers, not huge farms, of course). The idea is to push the silking period as late as possible, deep into August, when the beetle is on the wane. Otherwise the beetle eats the silk as fast as it grows and you get stunted ears. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3423 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 1:45 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Heineken wrote:
Big Ag must die off and replaced by small ag, 19th century style.
The essential shift that is taking place is that instead of producing food that is incredibly cheap and abundant, Big Ag will be producing food that is incredibly expensive, and with a supply and distribution system that is increasingly unreliable and uneven. Although I don't believe in straight-line extrapolations, it's easy to see how the current arrangement is headed for certain collapse.
Farming as we have it is all about giant machinery, herbicides, pesticides, chemical fertilizers, immense processing plants, refrigeration, and the trucking industry and its associated infrastructure. All almost completely dependent on oil and other fossil fuels.
I'm more convinced by arguments that Big Ag will pull through, owning to efficiencies of scale, and that their ultimate fuel requirements are reasonable - and will undoubtedly be subsidized if need be. People can be unemployed and without gas for cars, but the last thing we want is to have them starving as well. Say what you will about modern ag, it is good at producing huge quantities of crops, and is the system in place - like modern inefficient car engines, it's what we have to work with for the time being. Distribution of food will undoubtedly receive premiums in rationing as well, until more transport can be electrified.
Quote:
It can't continue; but the changes that are needed in agriculture must be accompanied by a total revolution in how people live and work.
I believe this will undoubtedly be true for city dwellers, more community/backyard gardening. Millions of urban unemployed will make for Heinberg's nation of farmers, building a surplus on top of existing ag.
Quote:
We need a world of small, walkable towns, surrounded by cottage industries, surrounded in turn by small farms run by people and not corporations, surrounded in turn by forest and wilderness. All connected by trains. I've been saying this for years, but we haven't moved one inch closer to that world, at least not in the US.
The price of gas hasn't gone high enough to force people to change from BAU. Rebuilding the urban landscape in toto would require decades, and funding it all in a declining energy world will be a massive task. Already it is pulling teeth in most states to get modest LR projects going, never mind an interurban rail system. What you're hoping for sounds quite idyllic but I see a rather depressing burnt out landscape of makeshift structures, cracked pavement, grime. Watch some videos of urban Cuba for a taste.
In the face of PO I'd hope for drastic changes in approval/funding/development of passenger rail - the big paradigm shift will come when never ending decline in oil supply is plain as the face on your nose. Right now it's some obscure technical point hardly anyone is aware of, including Congress from the looks of things. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Could you slide your shorts down please?
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 382 Location: Mississippi Delta
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 1:56 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
The rising commodity prices are causing a major increase in ag land prices and rents. The trend has already been toward larger holdings and absentee owners. You would think it would be easier for a small owner to make a living these days, but I guess the higher acreage values are just too high for a lot to resist.
It's interesting to look at the drop in residential land values and the pull-back in the building sector while ag land values are ballooning. This might be a tough time for those who have been thinking of unloading their suburban properties for that little hobby horse ranch, rural residential, peak-oil farmstead (pick your fantasy or distopia). Oops. Timing is everything. _________________ Sarah Palin: Because what we really need right now is another inexperienced, inarticulate, personable, fundamentalist governor of an oil-dependent state for president.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
