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dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 05, 2007
Posts: 1004
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 Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 5:40 am Post subject: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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Basicaly after Shell pulled out of the Kent coast windfarm and with the worlds largest windfarms costs doubling Centrica, a major UK energy firm is warning that the economics of windpower in the UK are deeply unclear.
The UK is pretty close to being one of the worlds prime wind power slots due to its location with a huge coastline and regular strong winds.
The costs are the same as we find in every industry, rising raw materials and energy costs. Inflation. Slow to the point of embarrasing the UK has dragged its feet on CO2 emisions as its huge loss of industry and move from coal to gas in the 80s meant on paper things looked good. Now the gas is going and the power demand rising meets the hungry demand for energy from round the world.
Unfortunetly we cannot fertilise the fields with the rhetorical bullshit we get from the government on this issue or global food prices would be in for a huge drop. |
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cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
Posts: 3387
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 6:28 am Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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why wind power is ridiculously expensive: Capacity factor
| Quote: | | The net capacity factor of a power plant is the ratio of the actual output of a power plant over a period of time and its output if it had operated at full nameplate capacity the entire time. |
lets use Germany as an example:
wiki says in 2006
Annual Wind Power Generation (TWh) = 30.7 TWh
Installed windpower capacity (MW) = 20,622
Theoretical maximum energy production in one year if wind was 100% perfect
20,622MW x 24hr x 365days/1000/1000 = 180.6TWh
capacity factor of wind mills
30.7TWh/180.6TWh == 17%
ouch! That's $$$
///
you get different numbers with different nations. anyone have an explanation? |
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Nano
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jan 16, 2005
Posts: 294
Location: Delft, Netherlands
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:14 am Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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| A 17% capacity factor for wind is actually pretty good. The 'normal' capacity factor for wind that I've heard pop up now and then is 10%. So it appears that Ze Germans are doing quite well. |
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aahala2
Tar Sands
Joined: Mar 25, 2008
Posts: 67
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 9:51 am Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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| cube wrote: |
you get different numbers with different nations. anyone have an explanation? |
Of course, wind varies.
Germany installed much of its capacity before the US did, and
the capacityof turbines have increased rather dramatically over the
last 5-8 years. Turbine capacity is positively related to the length
of the blades, therefore the height as well. Wind speeds and
the consistency of the speeds are almost universally higher the
further from ground level you get.
The capacity ratio of the entire existing US windforce in 2007 was
over 30%. Some of newer, larger turbines had capacity ratios exceeding 35%. These higher ratios can have significant downward
impact of average production costs. |
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energycity
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 22, 2008
Posts: 121
Location: UK, EU
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 10:24 am Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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| dorlomin wrote: | | Unfortunetly we cannot fertilise the fields with the rhetorical bullshit we get from the government on this issue or global food prices would be in for a huge drop. |
Yep, I can just see the multinationals racing in to bottle and market 'Rhetorical Bullshit'. I can think of a few folk just right for advertising it too. It is one of the only resources in the world that is virtually inexhaustible and never likely to peak!  |
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TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 2974
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 11:32 am Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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Here's a video of the Fastcat North Hoyle Offshore Wind Farm. Gives one a sense of scale, both of the size of the things and the huge amount of fossil fuel inputs that went into building them, and that will have to go into maintaining them as well.
Wonder when the economies of scale begin to taper off with WTs. Maybe we should be building them the size of the Sears Tower? 
_________________
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine. |
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cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
Posts: 3387
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:10 pm Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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here's how you move a 5 mega-watt windmill, or at least the bottom section of just the hub!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mHnjb2wo1A
Whoever thinks we're going to be doing this kind of stuff post PO - I'd just like to know what type of recreational drugs you're taking because I'd like to have some of it too!
I wonder if they'll build larger windmills or did we just hit "peak wind power"  |
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DR_STU
Tar Sands
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Posts: 21
Location: North of 49th parallel
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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| Yeah, I guess we should just do nothing, even those things that have a chance of easing our transition to a lower energy/lower carbon future. |
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Hagakure_Leofman
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jan 02, 2008
Posts: 403
Location: out dispatching ronan...
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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| dorlomin wrote: | | Unfortunetly we cannot fertilise the fields with the rhetorical bullshit |
lol! |
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cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
Posts: 3387
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| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 3:20 am Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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| DR_STU wrote: | | Yeah, I guess we should just do nothing, even those things that have a chance of easing our transition to a lower energy/lower carbon future. |
How much do you think it would cost to move something like that using battery powered trucks?
How much would a windmill cost if every truck, ship, construction equipment needed to produce a windmill from iron ore extraction to manufacturing and placement were ALL battery powered!
Do you still think this can be done without cheap oil? |
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Twilight
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Joined: Mar 02, 2007
Posts: 2971
Location: UK
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Tanada
Expert
Joined: Apr 28, 2005
Posts: 3455
Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
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| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 7:05 am Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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| cube wrote: | | DR_STU wrote: | | Yeah, I guess we should just do nothing, even those things that have a chance of easing our transition to a lower energy/lower carbon future. |
How much do you think it would cost to move something like that using battery powered trucks?
How much would a windmill cost if every truck, ship, construction equipment needed to produce a windmill from iron ore extraction to manufacturing and placement were ALL battery powered!
Do you still think this can be done without cheap oil? |
I kind of doubt shipping will ever be battery powered, at worst they will go back to sail/wind power and at best a small fission reactor is all any ship needs for power and freshwater.
_________________
Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov |
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Homesteader
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 12, 2007
Posts: 1162
Location: Central NC
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| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 7:17 am Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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| cube wrote: | here's how you move a 5 mega-watt windmill, or at least the bottom section of just the hub!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mHnjb2wo1A
Whoever thinks we're going to be doing this kind of stuff post PO - I'd just like to know what type of recreational drugs you're taking because I'd like to have some of it too!
I wonder if they'll build larger windmills or did we just hit "peak wind power" |
That was not reassuring at all. How in god's name are they supposed to do routine work on them 5 or 10 years down the road as they start showing their age during a north Atlantic winter when the wind is blowing 20 kts? etc, etc, etc. . .
But the soothing music was nice. |
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Homesteader
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 12, 2007
Posts: 1162
Location: Central NC
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| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 7:19 am Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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| cube wrote: | here's how you move a 5 mega-watt windmill, or at least the bottom section of just the hub!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mHnjb2wo1A
Whoever thinks we're going to be doing this kind of stuff post PO - I'd just like to know what type of recreational drugs you're taking because I'd like to have some of it too!
I wonder if they'll build larger windmills or did we just hit "peak wind power" |
No prob cube. Get a bunch of slaves and some logs. Just like how they built the pyramids. Besides, how many of those will the elites really need? |
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cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
Posts: 3387
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| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 7:29 am Post subject: Re: Economics of UK wind 'uncertain' |
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| Tanada wrote: | ...
I kind of doubt shipping will ever be battery powered, at worst they will go back to sail/wind power and at best a small fission reactor is all any ship needs for power and freshwater. |
To be honest I have this theory that so long as society hasn't collapsed into the dark ages there will always be oil....but it will be mighty expensive. It will be reserved for either ultra critical functions like (farm tractors, police cars, military, etc...) and not for soccer moms to drive their SUV's.
Either the car of the future is powered by oil or there will be no cars period. Electric cars will never become viable.
yeah I know it's not a popular theory on this site. |
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