Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 896 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:11 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
Currently, Russia is building a port for the Black Sea Fleet in Tartus, Syria, but still need access to the Black Sea and the Mediteranean. Abkhazia will be like a Soviet satellite state. Which will be fine to the leaders of Abkahazia, who would not be able to remain in power otherwise. It is already obvious this is of strategic importance to Russia and the western world can do nothing about it without igniting a world war. _________________ In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
- George Orwell
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 2:22 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
No doubt that what the West did in Kosovo was both stupid and illegal under international law. You might remember that I didn't defend that.
But I don't agree with the line "if they do it then we can do it too".
That is unsustainable approach.
Well behaving nations would end up marginalized or in some cases disassembled, should they join in.
Some dose of Realpolitik or tit for tat approach is sometimes the only way forward.
That would also discourage further misbehavior from your competitors/adversaries by allowing them to realize, that they cannot get away with it for free.
Quote:
The fact that your neighbor might kill people at night doesn't mean that you are justified to do so as well.
That is not a situation in Kosowo or Abkhazia.
In fact ambitions of self determination of small local populations there are supported by big international players.
Quote:
After all the US is illegally detaining and torturing people in Guantanamo, so why shouldn't Poland do the same ?
Because Poland is US satellite state at the moment and US asked Poland to do so.
Quote:
Wait, I seem to remember some allegations to that effect...
Btu
Oh, well...
These were unconfirmed...
And those [detained and tortured] peoples are terrorists (or freedom fighters, if you prefer to name them this way), you know...
These are not covered by Geneva convention.
To be covered by provisions of Geneva convention, you have to wear uniform, carry arms in open and you have to serve under recognized command structure.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
Keith_McClary wrote:
You could make a similar list for the USA. About 95% of them died because white christian colonists expelled them from the land they subsisted on. Or just plain massacred them.
Russia and the US both have a criminal history.
The crimes of the US do not excuse the crimes of Russia, and the crimes of Russia do not excuse the crimes of the US.
Why is it so difficult to understand that the response to one form of evil is not another form of evil ?
You cannot cast out the devil with Beelzebub.
Btu _________________ only the paranoid survive
Last edited by btu2012 on Thu May 08, 2008 6:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 6:22 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
Ta_Tyana wrote:
In international practice territorial conflicts between Abkhazia and South Ossetia received the status of inter-ethnic in the early 1990s, although actually deep-seated inter-ethnic strife between Tbilisi and the autonomous districts was a reality even back at the time when Georgia was a Soviet republic.
May I ask you what is Russia doing there in the first place ? Those territories were acquired by Tsarist Russia via imperial expansion, under the excuse of fighting Turkey. Why was Georgia incorporated by force into the Soviet Union, just after its independence had been recognized by Russia as well as internationally in the 1920's ?
Ta_Tyana wrote:
]As for Abkhazia, the region's population struggled to regain the statehood the region lost in 1931 when Abkhazia, initially a separate republic in the Soviet Union, was integrated on autonomy terms into the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic.
A Soviet Republic formed by illegal territorial conquest:
Quote:
In February 1921 Georgia was attacked by the Red Army. Georgian army was defeated and the Social-Democrat government fled the country. On February 25, 1921 the Red Army entered capital Tbilisi and installed a puppet communist government led by Georgian Bolshevik Filipp Makharadze. Nevertheless the Soviet rule was firmly established only after the 1924 revolt was brutally suppressed. Georgia was incorporated into the Transcaucasian SFSR uniting Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The TFSSR was disaggregated into its component elements in 1936 and Georgia became the Georgian SSR.
Ta_Tyana wrote:
]Southern Ossetian citizens pushed for a proclamation of independence and at the same time for entry into the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of which is Northern Ossetia with inhabitants of the same ethnic group. Both internal conflicts of 1992-1993 were marked by serious military campaigns with many people killed and which were "frozen" only after peacekeeping troops with a CIS mandate stepped in.
All of which is a consequence of the forced denationalization, colonization and population transfer policies carried out by the Russian Empire and continued by the Soviet Union. For which Russia refuses to acknowledge any responsibility whatsoever.
Ta_Tyana wrote:
Meanwhile, it can be said with a fair degree of probability that de jure Moscow will not take a step to declare Abkhazia and South Ossetia independent, since in this case it would forfeit the chance to appeal to international law and deny such precedence of the idea of a "self-determination" of the nation as a dangerous phenomenon for any federal state.
Well international law seems to mean nothing. The US invaded Iraq without a UN mandate, the borders of Serbia have been redrawn by fiat against the UN Charter, Russia does whatever it pleases in Chechnia ....
It's not like any of the major powers takes "international law" to be worth the paper it's written on.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Well behaving nations would end up marginalized or in some cases disassembled, should they join in.
Or they could ally into a mutual self-defense block sufficiently powerful to deter any aggressor.
Quote:
That would also discourage further misbehavior from your competitors/adversaries by allowing them to realize, that they cannot get away with it for free.
Which is why Georgia wants to join NATO.
Quote:
That is not a situation in Kosowo or Abkhazia.
In fact ambitions of self determination of small local populations there are supported by big international players.
I was talking about the dismembering of Serbia, which was pushed for by the US/EU in violation of the US charter. My point is that this does not justify the dismembering of Georgia.
Quote:
Oh, well... These were unconfirmed... And those [detained and tortured] peoples are terrorists (or freedom fighters, if you prefer to name them this way), you know...
These are not covered by Geneva convention. To be covered by provisions of Geneva convention, you have to wear uniform, carry arms in open and you have to serve under recognized command structure.
Terrorists and freedom fighters don't qualify.
Bien sur.
Of course none of those people was brought to trial so we know that they are guilty as hell just because the infallible US services told us so. Only a little detail, of course.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:32 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
May I ask you what is Russia doing there in the first place ? Those territories were acquired by Tsarist Russia via imperial expansion, under the excuse of fighting Turkey. Why was Georgia incorporated by force into the Soviet Union, just after its independence had been recognized by Russia as well as internationally in the 1920's ?
If you follow on this kind of logic, you should call for US to surrender their land to Red Indians, who are rightful owners of it after all and you should also call for Australian land to be surrendered for Aborigines.
One can give much more similar examples.
White populations from these continents should be sent home, from where they came in the first place and if there is no recognizable home, they should be loaded on ships and expelled to high seas.
I think, one guy in Zimbabwe is actually close to do just that.
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 806 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
I still think that the Russians will do anything they have to do to keep the lane to the ME open even if they aren't planning on using it. They will do that and use intrigue amongst the various states there in order to gain enough of a position so that they can opportunistically take advantage of any breaks that come their way.
This is all posturing for now.
The one country that probably really needs to think about what might happen is Israel. Providing a US loss or Vietnam style capitulation in the ME they could wind up with the Russians or the Arabs tacitly backed up by the Russians on their doorstep. They aren't doing much right now to avoid that, rather investing in being able to react to it. I should think avoiding it altogether is a better option. _________________ "Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 1:19 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
If you follow on this kind of logic, you should call for US to surrender their land to Red Indians, who are rightful owners of it after all and you should also call for Australian land to be surrendered for Aborigines.
The situation is not the same in that Georgia still does exist as an independent state. The aboriginal/indian nations were essentially exterminated.
Quote:
White populations from these continents should be sent home, from where they came in the first place and if there is no recognizable home, they should be loaded on ships and expelled to high seas.
White populations on these continents should at least openly recognize their responsibility and provide meaningful compensation.
Quote:
I think, one guy in Zimbabwe is actually close to do just that.
Well the situation there is complex. I don't like Mugabe but it's abnormal for most of the land of a country to be held by a tiny ethnic minority, especially after a history of brutal civil war. Some form of land redistribution is necessary in Zimbabwe. Of course, not through the current methods.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:26 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
Nice gmin, you forgot to mention that Georgians are people too, or they don't figure on your list of humans ?
Perhaps they deserve to be bombed because they don't share your ideology. Maybe Russia ought to bomb the USA instead, to address the problem at its origin.
Btu
how do you convince ppl that they made the wrong choice? let them experience the negative consequence.
it's a form of education. effective on both humans and animals.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 6:52 am Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
gmin wrote:
how do you convince ppl that they made the wrong choice? let them experience the negative consequence.
it's a form of education. effective on both humans and animals.
A form of education which should be applied first to all believers in Pavlovian conditioning.
I strongly support the idea of making sure that everyone gets a taste of their own medicine, just so that that they understand it properly.
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 2:43 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
gmin wrote:
how do you convince ppl that they made the wrong choice? let them experience the negative consequence.
it's a form of education. effective on both humans and animals.
A form of education which should be applied first to all believers in Pavlovian conditioning.
I strongly support the idea of making sure that everyone gets a taste of their own medicine, just so that that they understand it properly.
Btu
That is, how world works [by Pavlovian conditioning].
You cannot change it.
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia-Russian Conflict Looms
btu2012 wrote:
The situation is not the same in that Georgia still does exist as an independent state. The aboriginal/indian nations were essentially exterminated.
I have marked a keyword in italic.
Quote:
White populations on these continents should at least openly recognize their responsibility and provide meaningful compensation.
Exterminated nations will find no use of compensations.
Few survivors will hardly benefit of these as well (eg, they will assume Western life standards with new found money and soon end up with diabetics).
Quote:
Well the situation there is complex. I don't like Mugabe but it's abnormal for most of the land of a country to be held by a tiny ethnic minority, especially after a history of brutal civil war. Some form of land redistribution is necessary in Zimbabwe. Of course, not through the current methods.
Btu
So what kind of methods would you propose?
To be more precisive, who should get a land to farm?
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