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Gandalf_the_White
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Nov 21, 2007
Posts: 511
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 Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:28 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote: | BWAAAaaaa!1!!
CNBC just said we're all over reacting to the high price of oil. Seems oil is getting so expensive because "We denominate the value of oil in Dollars and so oil has risen by 100%. But if we denominated oil in Euros, you would see that oil has only increased by 50%, which is only half of the value of oil denominated in Dollars."
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Which helps us out alot. There is a feedback on the dollar from it's connection to oil. But it is a deeper set of problems than simply that oil is denominated in dollars. It's the size of the Us economy and the impact of higer prices on that. It's the way we have structured our economy around particular modes of life that rely so hevaily on cheap oil. I am tending now to think that most of the problems for the US are related the way we have implemented oil technology, the lifestyle we have chosen for ourselves basd upon being the first really big player in the cheap oil era. I think we would have seen the euro drop if oil were denominated in it as well but not as severely as the dollar has dropped.
Of course I am talking about a small effect here, probably a few tenths of a percent annually, definitely not the near 10% drop we have seen in the last few years. Even if they start denominating oil in euros today there is no remedy for the pain of America.
I like how they are now finding scapegoats though instead of looking directly at the real problems: scarcity, waste, greed, an oil based model for society that is not sustainable.
_________________
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Last edited by Gandalf_the_White on Fri May 09, 2008 2:31 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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dblk
Coal
Joined: Dec 12, 2007
Posts: 15
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:30 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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~$126 just wow. $150 by the end of June?
Last edited by dblk on Fri May 09, 2008 2:32 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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threadbear
Expert
Joined: Jan 22, 2005
Posts: 6906
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:31 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| joeltrout wrote: | | Novus wrote: | | This run only has a few more dollars to go before we see another pull back. Whenever something goes up $10 in a week that is speculators. Fundamentals support slow increases over a long period of time. Going back from $30 to $60 took two years and going from $60 to $120 took two more years. |
I agree we will see a pull back but $10 is only an 8% move with these prices. That is definitely not unheard of.
joeltrout |
The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility, providing the American dollar doesn't weaken appreciably. |
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threadbear
Expert
Joined: Jan 22, 2005
Posts: 6906
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:34 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote: | BWAAAaaaa!1!!
CNBC just said we're all over reacting to the high price of oil. Seems oil is getting so expensive because "We denominate the value of oil in Dollars and so oil has risen by 100%. But if we denominated oil in Euros, you would see that oil has only increased by 50%, which is only half of the value of oil denominated in Dollars."
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Why is this funny? They're trying to make a point about general inflation and devaluing of the American dollar. |
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joeltrout
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Sep 19, 2007
Posts: 919
Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| threadbear wrote: |
The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility, |
40% retracement would equal $75/bbl. When do you predict this will happen? And do you think a strengthing dollar will take oil to $75? It seems that you would need to have the reverse of a perfect storm. A perfect calming of oil markets.
I just don't see this.
joeltrout
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ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people. |
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threadbear
Expert
Joined: Jan 22, 2005
Posts: 6906
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| joeltrout wrote: | | threadbear wrote: |
The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility, |
40% retracement would equal $75/bbl. When do you predict this will happen? And do you think a strengthing dollar will take oil to $75? It seems that you would need to have the reverse of a perfect storm. A perfect calming of oil markets.
I just don't see this.
joeltrout |
Demand destruction and political intervention. I don't thing it's highly likely, just a possibility. If prices remain where they are, alternatives will get a major boost, as well. |
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Eli
Fusion
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Posts: 3679
Location: In a van down by the river
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:49 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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CNBC is a bunch of media whore cheerleaders, they are not making a point they are just trying to keep spirits up.
Actually if they would think about what they are saying they would realize how truly dire the situation is right now.
The dollar is the worlds reserve currency, and sure if Oil was priced in Euros it would be numerically cheaper than in dollars. Too bad we would still have to pay in dollars and our dollars are worth less and less. If they would think for half a second about what would happen if oil does start being priced in Euros around the globe what happens then?
I will tell you, Oil is no longer 126 a barrel it is 226 and rising. Nations around the globe would dump the dollar and quit holding it. Our National Government would be rendered insolvent and other nations would quit buying our debt. Interest rates on everything would shoot up over night and the US economy would be done. |
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anagami
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 26, 2006
Posts: 1636
Location: Sudavasa Abodes
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:55 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| dblk wrote: | | ~$126 just wow. $150 by the end of June? |
Wow, my $160 high by the end of the year may be optimistic... 
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anagami.net |
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UncoveringTruths
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Nov 04, 2004
Posts: 825
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:59 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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What is causing the run up?
1. Speculators and hedge fund managers bidding up the price of oil on the World Markets. Spank their wankers says the lawmakers. 
2. The value of oil denominated in the lagging dollar. The .75 cent dollar bill. 
3. Peak Oil supply not meeting demand. The end is nigh! So drink heavily. 
4. Lack of investment into future projects. How much do you want for that piece of scrap steel. 
5. It doesn't matter the stuff is just going to get more expensive. 
6. It’s the aliens fault for not coming sooner. 
7. All the above. 
I probably have missed a few other speculations of why the run up is happening. But one thing is for sure the signals are ominous.
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It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes. |
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PeakingAroundtheCorner
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 08, 2007
Posts: 437
Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| threadbear wrote: | | PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote: | BWAAAaaaa!1!!
CNBC just said we're all over reacting to the high price of oil. Seems oil is getting so expensive because "We denominate the value of oil in Dollars and so oil has risen by 100%. But if we denominated oil in Euros, you would see that oil has only increased by 50%, which is only half of the value of oil denominated in Dollars."
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Why is this funny? They're trying to make a point about general inflation and devaluing of the American dollar. |
Duh....
I thought it was kinda funny that they want us to think of oil prices in Euros so that it won't seem like it's going up so much. But we here in the States think in Dollars, not Euros. It's the value of our Dollar we're dealing with, not the value of the Euro. The point being made was a "Duh!" moment and stupid as hell.
What would they have me do? Am I supposed to be pumping fuel and thinking "Gee, it's really not all that bad if I just think of it in Euros. Hmmm...I should take a drive out to the state park on this lovely day." |
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RedStateGreen
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 16, 2007
Posts: 1003
Location: Oklahoma City, USA
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:08 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| dblk wrote: | | ~$126 just wow. $150 by the end of June? |
I'd say August.
_________________
What, so I'm in no end game
Move my piece right off the board |
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heroineworshipper
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 14, 2006
Posts: 481
Location: Calif*
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:44 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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Bernanke's April 30 statement is priceless.
> The Committee expects inflation to moderate in
> coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out
> of energy and other commodity prices
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People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement & cannibalism. |
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Gandalf_the_White
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Nov 21, 2007
Posts: 511
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 4:05 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| threadbear wrote: | | joeltrout wrote: | | Novus wrote: | | This run only has a few more dollars to go before we see another pull back. Whenever something goes up $10 in a week that is speculators. Fundamentals support slow increases over a long period of time. Going back from $30 to $60 took two years and going from $60 to $120 took two more years. |
I agree we will see a pull back but $10 is only an 8% move with these prices. That is definitely not unheard of.
joeltrout |
The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility, providing the American dollar doesn't weaken appreciably. |
Nope.
_________________
I return to you now at the turning of the tide. |
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TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 2625
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 4:15 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote: | | I thought it was kinda funny that they want us to think of oil prices in Euros so that it won't seem like it's going up so much. |
Yeah, psyops. Maybe they'll try discussing the cost of oil at 1,166,256 Indonesian Rupiahs/barrel!
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Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The god damn plane has crashed into the mountain! |
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oowolf
Expert
Joined: Nov 09, 2004
Posts: 1205
Location: Big Rock Candy Mountain
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 5:11 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20) |
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| $150: July 28 |
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