Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:28 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
BWAAAaaaa!1!!
CNBC just said we're all over reacting to the high price of oil. Seems oil is getting so expensive because "We denominate the value of oil in Dollars and so oil has risen by 100%. But if we denominated oil in Euros, you would see that oil has only increased by 50%, which is only half of the value of oil denominated in Dollars."
Which helps us out alot. There is a feedback on the dollar from it's connection to oil. But it is a deeper set of problems than simply that oil is denominated in dollars. It's the size of the Us economy and the impact of higer prices on that. It's the way we have structured our economy around particular modes of life that rely so hevaily on cheap oil. I am tending now to think that most of the problems for the US are related the way we have implemented oil technology, the lifestyle we have chosen for ourselves basd upon being the first really big player in the cheap oil era. I think we would have seen the euro drop if oil were denominated in it as well but not as severely as the dollar has dropped.
Of course I am talking about a small effect here, probably a few tenths of a percent annually, definitely not the near 10% drop we have seen in the last few years. Even if they start denominating oil in euros today there is no remedy for the pain of America.
I like how they are now finding scapegoats though instead of looking directly at the real problems: scarcity, waste, greed, an oil based model for society that is not sustainable. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Last edited by Gandalf_the_White on Fri May 09, 2008 2:31 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:31 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
joeltrout wrote:
Novus wrote:
This run only has a few more dollars to go before we see another pull back. Whenever something goes up $10 in a week that is speculators. Fundamentals support slow increases over a long period of time. Going back from $30 to $60 took two years and going from $60 to $120 took two more years.
I agree we will see a pull back but $10 is only an 8% move with these prices. That is definitely not unheard of.
joeltrout
The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility, providing the American dollar doesn't weaken appreciably.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:34 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
BWAAAaaaa!1!!
CNBC just said we're all over reacting to the high price of oil. Seems oil is getting so expensive because "We denominate the value of oil in Dollars and so oil has risen by 100%. But if we denominated oil in Euros, you would see that oil has only increased by 50%, which is only half of the value of oil denominated in Dollars."
Why is this funny? They're trying to make a point about general inflation and devaluing of the American dollar.
Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 914 Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
threadbear wrote:
The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility,
40% retracement would equal $75/bbl. When do you predict this will happen? And do you think a strengthing dollar will take oil to $75? It seems that you would need to have the reverse of a perfect storm. A perfect calming of oil markets.
I just don't see this.
joeltrout _________________ ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
joeltrout wrote:
threadbear wrote:
The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility,
40% retracement would equal $75/bbl. When do you predict this will happen? And do you think a strengthing dollar will take oil to $75? It seems that you would need to have the reverse of a perfect storm. A perfect calming of oil markets.
I just don't see this.
joeltrout
Demand destruction and political intervention. I don't thing it's highly likely, just a possibility. If prices remain where they are, alternatives will get a major boost, as well.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3667 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:49 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
CNBC is a bunch of media whore cheerleaders, they are not making a point they are just trying to keep spirits up.
Actually if they would think about what they are saying they would realize how truly dire the situation is right now.
The dollar is the worlds reserve currency, and sure if Oil was priced in Euros it would be numerically cheaper than in dollars. Too bad we would still have to pay in dollars and our dollars are worth less and less. If they would think for half a second about what would happen if oil does start being priced in Euros around the globe what happens then?
I will tell you, Oil is no longer 126 a barrel it is 226 and rising. Nations around the globe would dump the dollar and quit holding it. Our National Government would be rendered insolvent and other nations would quit buying our debt. Interest rates on everything would shoot up over night and the US economy would be done.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:59 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
What is causing the run up?
1. Speculators and hedge fund managers bidding up the price of oil on the World Markets. Spank their wankers says the lawmakers.
2. The value of oil denominated in the lagging dollar. The .75 cent dollar bill.
3. Peak Oil supply not meeting demand. The end is nigh! So drink heavily.
4. Lack of investment into future projects. How much do you want for that piece of scrap steel.
5. It doesn't matter the stuff is just going to get more expensive.
6. It’s the aliens fault for not coming sooner.
7. All the above.
I probably have missed a few other speculations of why the run up is happening. But one thing is for sure the signals are ominous. _________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 430 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
threadbear wrote:
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
BWAAAaaaa!1!!
CNBC just said we're all over reacting to the high price of oil. Seems oil is getting so expensive because "We denominate the value of oil in Dollars and so oil has risen by 100%. But if we denominated oil in Euros, you would see that oil has only increased by 50%, which is only half of the value of oil denominated in Dollars."
Why is this funny? They're trying to make a point about general inflation and devaluing of the American dollar.
Duh....
I thought it was kinda funny that they want us to think of oil prices in Euros so that it won't seem like it's going up so much. But we here in the States think in Dollars, not Euros. It's the value of our Dollar we're dealing with, not the value of the Euro. The point being made was a "Duh!" moment and stupid as hell.
What would they have me do? Am I supposed to be pumping fuel and thinking "Gee, it's really not all that bad if I just think of it in Euros. Hmmm...I should take a drive out to the state park on this lovely day."
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:44 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
Bernanke's April 30 statement is priceless.
> The Committee expects inflation to moderate in
> coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out
> of energy and other commodity prices _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement & cannibalism.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 4:05 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
threadbear wrote:
joeltrout wrote:
Novus wrote:
This run only has a few more dollars to go before we see another pull back. Whenever something goes up $10 in a week that is speculators. Fundamentals support slow increases over a long period of time. Going back from $30 to $60 took two years and going from $60 to $120 took two more years.
I agree we will see a pull back but $10 is only an 8% move with these prices. That is definitely not unheard of.
joeltrout
The prices have doubled in less than 2 years, and have gone up 40% in just a few months. A 40% retracement is a strong possibility, providing the American dollar doesn't weaken appreciably.
Nope. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2599 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 4:15 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.20)
PeakingAroundtheCorner wrote:
I thought it was kinda funny that they want us to think of oil prices in Euros so that it won't seem like it's going up so much.
Yeah, psyops. Maybe they'll try discussing the cost of oil at 1,166,256 Indonesian Rupiahs/barrel! _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
This aggression will not stand, man.
"We can find a needle in a haystack, but it is still a needle." - Colin Campbell on oil exploration.
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