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joewp Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1567 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
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Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 6:22 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (Apr 28) |
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Glad to help, pup.
And also glad/sad that PO.com posters are doing much, much better than the so-called "experts".
Hey, maybe we should be getting paid for this???  _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb |
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sparky Tar Sands


Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 98
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 1:10 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (Apr 28) |
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should we have a mid year update for those who had a change of mind !
the reward ( punishment ) would be the original post  |
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whereagles Intermediate Crude


Joined: Aug 17, 2005 Posts: 572 Location: Portugal
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 3:38 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (Apr 28) |
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| joewp wrote: | glad/sad that PO.com posters are doing much, much better than the so-called "experts".
Hey, maybe we should be getting paid for this???  |
That'll be 50 bushels of corn, sir. I'll fax you the delivery address  |
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davep Expert


Joined: Jun 21, 2006 Posts: 1138 Location: Burgundy, France
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 3:57 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (Apr 28) |
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Ok, I'm late but this seems like fun...
Low 88
High 215
End 188 _________________ All that we are is the result of what we have thought. The mind is everything. What we think we become. - Buddha |
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pup55 Expert


Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3444
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 6:46 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (Apr 28) |
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| Quote: | | should we have a mid year update for those who had a change of mind |
Go for it. I will just note the updated predictions appropriately somehow, and keep the old ones around just to keep everyone humble.
This is about the love, respect and admiration of the PO.com community, so the original entries will get precedence, of course. But, this is kind of a laid back game, and if any newcomers want to join, or any revisionism is needed, feel free. |
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pup55 Expert


Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3444
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Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 1:31 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (Apr 28) |
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| Code: |
High Low Close Avg Hi Diff Low DiClose Overall
dbruning 122 84.56 116 0.16 2.43 5.84 8.43
Art_Vandelai 132.66 88.4 118.04 10.82 1.41 3.8 16.03
Snowstorm 134.97 83.16 122.49 13.13 3.83 0.65 17.61
morph 125 82 110 3.16 4.99 11.84 19.99
whereagles 125.21 88.55 105.23 3.37 1.56 16.61 21.54
Bas 139.5 85 125 17.66 1.99 3.16 22.81
skyemoor 128 84 108 6.16 2.99 13.84 22.99
Shannymara 138 84 118 16.16 2.99 3.84 22.99
eastbay 135 85 130 13.16 1.99 8.16 23.31
mekrob 142.92 87.86 123.83 21.08 0.87 1.99 23.94
Big Tex* (March 117 84 103 4.84 2.99 18.84 26.67
ColossalContrar 119.87 82.31 101.51 1.97 4.68 20.33 26.98
thuja 122 73 105 0.16 13.99 16.84 30.99
SteinarN 112.3 90.7 102.7 9.54 3.71 19.14 32.39
DantesPeak 146 78 122 24.16 8.99 0.16 33.31
wisconsin_cur 145.32 82.63 115.55 23.48 4.36 6.29 34.13
Gerben 119 75 102 2.84 11.99 19.84 34.67
pup55 120.49 75.23 97.1195.27 1.35 11.76 24.73 37.84
Doly 137.67 69.64 115.54 15.83 17.35 6.3 39.48
FishAreBest 140 80 105 18.16 6.99 16.84 41.99
dust_farmer 140 70 130 18.16 16.99 8.16 43.31
TheDude 130 120 125 8.16 33.01 3.16 44.33
MrBill 137.22 80.42 99.29 15.38 6.57 22.55 44.5
zzzpeakoil 109.5 79.6 95.5 12.34 7.39 26.34 46.07
Lumpy 163 81 121 41.16 5.99 0.84 47.99
SpringCreekFarm 166 88 127 44.16 1.01 5.16 50.33
zensui 160 88 136 120 38.16 1.01 14.16 53.33
Pops 149 91 98.6 27.16 4.01 23.24 54.41
Concerned 109.75 72.24 88.75 12.09 14.75 33.09 59.93
mkwin 98.5 82 90 23.34 4.99 31.84 60.17
basil_hayden 109 69 89 12.84 17.99 32.84 63.67
xarkz 100 78 88.14 85.1 21.84 8.99 33.7 64.53
cat 152 70 104 30.16 16.99 17.84 64.99
Narz 164 89 152 42.16 2.01 30.16 74.33
joewp 175 89 145 53.16 2.01 23.16 78.33
LoneSnark 120 50 80 1.84 36.99 41.84 80.67
sparky 167 89 160 45.16 2.01 38.16 85.33
Twilight 101.7 60.58 77.03 20.14 26.41 44.81 91.36
MC2 107 62 64 14.84 24.99 57.84 97.67
kmann 105 55 60 16.84 31.99 61.84 110.67
Tanada 166.23123.77 82.3 44.39 36.78 39.54 120.71
mididoctors 200 90 180 78.16 3.01 58.16 139.33
Hans_Blix 199 45 99.5 104 77.16 41.99 22.34 141.49
davep (May 8) 215 88 188 93.16 1.01 66.16 160.33
careinke 213.47 78.34 184.56 91.63 8.65 62.72 163
GreyGhost 220 95 200 98.16 8.01 78.16 184.33
roccman 600 95 475 478.16 8.01353.16 839.33
sjn 752 87 500 630.16 0.01378.16 1008.33
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I'd say there will be a lead change at about 126 |
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arretium Heavy Crude


Joined: Apr 04, 2005 Posts: 465 Location: Seattle, WA
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Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 2:26 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (May 6) |
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Hopefully it's not to late for to join in.
High $ 215
Low $ 89 (or whatever the lowest price has been so far this year)
Closing $208
Oil continues its steady rise upward and doesn't look back.
And because I can't help it:
Rush Limbaugh and the conservative media blames the Democrats for record oil prices.
Democrats blame the oil companies and OPEC.
Holiday (related) spending declines in the U.S. during the Christmas Holiday season in 2008 when compared to 2007.
The fed retinkers with the CPI to show that inflation is under check at only 2% per year because instead of factoring out just energy and food, the feds decide to also exclude durable goods, manufacturing, services, and any other form of spending.
Bush announces he has an aggressive 2009 January session planned where he will pass social security reform and more tort reform or, in the alternative, Bush declares marital law and appoints himself Emperor for life. Rush blames the Democrats for Bush's mental instability and blames San Francisco for ruining the republic. Bill Kristol calls for war against Iran and the rest of the middle east... He laments on FOX News, "Oil....the precious...It's OURS! OURS!"
George Lucas decides to have another Star Wars Trilogy, this time set 30 years after the fall of the Empire. George casts Mark Hamiliton as Luke Skywalker wielding his lightsaber from his hydrogen powered wheelchair. |
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GoghGoner Heavy Crude


Joined: Apr 10, 2008 Posts: 181
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Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 8:51 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (Apr 28) |
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| pup55 wrote: | | I'd say there will be a lead change at about 126 |
That's awesome, pup55. Like watching a horse race where you know the strongest horse is back in the pack (~200) just waiting for the last quarter to blow the field away ' ' |
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pup55 Expert


Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3444
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Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 5:27 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (May 6) |
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| The real excitement will be in the last week of the year, when the high and low are already in, and the standings will depend a lot on the close, which will change daily. |
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sjn Intermediate Crude


Joined: Mar 09, 2005 Posts: 524 Location: UK
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Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 5:43 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (May 6) |
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| pup55 wrote: | | The real excitement will be in the last week of the year, when the high and low are already in, and the standings will depend a lot on the close, which will change daily. | Yeah, like who will it be? Me or Rocc?  |
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mkwin Intermediate Crude


Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 544
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Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 1:02 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (May 6) |
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| sjn wrote: | | pup55 wrote: | | The real excitement will be in the last week of the year, when the high and low are already in, and the standings will depend a lot on the close, which will change daily. | Yeah, like who will it be? Me or Rocc?  |
If you or rocc are right we will proberbly have no internet or food for that matter! |
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pup55 Expert


Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3444
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Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 9:28 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (May 6) |
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| Code: |
High Low Close Hi DiffLow DifClose DOverall
eastbay 135 85 130 9.04 1.99 4.04 15.07
Art_Vandelai 132.66 88.4 118.04 6.7 1.41 7.92 16.03
Snowstorm 134.97 83.16 122.49 9.01 3.83 3.47 16.31
dbruning 122 84.56 116 3.96 2.43 9.96 16.35
Bas 139.5 85 125 13.54 1.99 0.96 16.49
mekrob 142.92 87.86 123.83 16.96 0.87 2.13 19.96
morph 125 82 110 0.96 4.99 15.96 21.91
skyemoor 128 84 108 2.04 2.99 17.96 22.99
Shannymara 138 84 118 12.04 2.99 7.96 22.99
whereagles 125.21 88.55 105.23 0.75 1.56 20.73 23.04
DantesPeak 146 78 122 20.04 8.99 3.96 32.99
wisconsin_cur 145.32 82.63 115.55 19.36 4.36 10.41 34.13
Big Tex* (March) 117 84 103 8.96 2.99 22.96 34.91
dust_farmer 140 70 130 14.04 16.99 4.04 35.07
ColossalContrarian 119.87 82.31 101.51 6.09 4.68 24.45 35.22
TheDude 130 120 125 4.04 33.01 0.96 38.01
thuja 122 73 105 3.96 13.99 20.96 38.91
Doly 137.67 69.64 115.54 11.71 17.35 10.42 39.48
SteinarN 112.3 90.7 102.7 13.66 3.71 23.26 40.63
FishAreBest 140 80 105 14.04 6.99 20.96 41.99
SpringCreekFarm 166 88 127 40.04 1.01 1.04 42.09
Gerben 119 75 102 6.96 11.99 23.96 42.91
MrBill 137.22 80.42 99.29 11.26 6.57 26.67 44.5
zensui 160 88 136 34.04 1.01 10.04 45.09
pup55 120.49 75.23 97.11 5.47 11.76 28.85 46.08
Lumpy 163 81 121 37.04 5.99 4.96 47.99
zzzpeakoil 109.5 79.6 95.5 16.46 7.39 30.46 54.31
Pops 149 91 98.6 23.04 4.01 27.36 54.41
cat 152 70 104 26.04 16.99 21.96 64.99
Narz 164 89 152 38.04 2.01 26.04 66.09
Concerned 109.75 72.24 88.75 16.21 14.75 37.21 68.17
mkwin 98.5 82 90 27.46 4.99 35.96 68.41
joewp 175 89 145 49.04 2.01 19.04 70.09
basil_hayden 109 69 89 16.96 17.99 36.96 71.91
xarkz 100 78 88.14 25.96 8.99 37.82 72.77
sparky 167 89 160 41.04 2.01 34.04 77.09
LoneSnark 120 50 80 5.96 36.99 45.96 88.91
Twilight 101.7 60.58 77.03 24.26 26.41 48.93 99.6
MC2 107 62 64 18.96 24.99 61.96 105.91
kmann 105 55 60 20.96 31.99 65.96 118.91
Tanada 166.23123.77 82.3 40.27 36.78 43.66 120.71
mididoctors 200 90 180 74.04 3.01 54.04 131.09
Hans_Blix 199 45 99.5 73.04 41.99 26.46 141.49
davep (May 8) 215 88 188 89.04 1.01 62.04 152.09
careinke 213.47 78.34 184.56 87.51 8.65 58.6 154.76
arretium (May 9) 215 89 208 89.04 2.01 82.04 173.09
GreyGhost 220 95 200 94.04 8.01 74.04 176.09
roccman 600 95 475 474.04 8.01 349.04 831.09
sjn 752 87 500 626.04 0.01 374.041000.09
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May 13 data |
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dohboi Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1027
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Posted: Mon May 19, 2008 1:50 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (New Leader) |
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| I predicted that oil would reach $160 this year about a year ago on a different thread. Now I think we're heading into hyperbolic price growth, so I would say the high this year should be closer to $240 (we'll call that the end price, too--and no new lows), with things quickly getting astronomic in the early months of '09. |
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anagami Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Jul 26, 2006 Posts: 1636 Location: Sudavasa Abodes
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Posted: Mon May 19, 2008 2:47 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (May 6) |
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| pup55 wrote: | | The real excitement will be in the last week of the year, when the high and low are already in, and the standings will depend a lot on the close, which will change daily. |
The closing price should be a range... it varies too much. Or make the avarage day closing price in the last month (so that predictions don't have to change) the "close"... or something. _________________ anagami.net |
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eastbay Moderator


Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 3864 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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Posted: Mon May 19, 2008 6:36 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (New Leader) |
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If the year ended today I would be the winner. But we have seven months more to go!
If Bush attacks Iran or something insane like that happens, and the price of oil reaches stratospheric levels, maybe we can change our estimates around 01DEC08?
Or.... heh... dig this, maybe you could then simply double all the estimates just to be fair.  _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
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