Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 12:46 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
threadbear wrote:
It is so not going to happen, for a variety of reasons.
Of course it isn’t going to happen; even if it was considered, where would the $100 trillion come from in the first place. The US doesn’t have $100 trillion, the world doesn’t have a $100 trillion. I think Simmon’s was telling us politely ....... we are screwed!
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 1:03 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
Novus wrote:
See you at the bottom of the rabbit hole.
You're on!! Enjoy the ride. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2886 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 4:04 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
$50-100 trillion?
My guess of $20-50 trillion was a bit on the low side then.
Still, you get this feeling that Simmons want more money to flow into the oil&gas business, which just might have something to do with a certain person leading and owning the biggest investment bank for the oil&gas industry... _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2886 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 4:08 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
kpeavey wrote:
article quotes $50-100 trillion
$50 trillion divided by a global population of 6.5 billion =$7692 for every human alive on the planet.
it aint gonna happen
Let's say the cost will be $65 trillion. Global GDP is $65 trillion. Spending 10 % of GDP over ten years or 5 % over 20 years hardly seems impossible.
Especially considering the extreme growth such a massive investment program will result in. For details on that effect, see the second Hirsch report. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
Starvid wrote:
Let's say the cost will be $65 trillion.
You are making an assumption here, and that is that the world GDP will stay at $65 trillion for the next 10 years. In actuality it is about $57 trillion and the chances of it staying there for 10 years is now approaching zero.
10% is equal to the food budget of the entire planet. With the world economy unraveling at a frightening rate, spending 10% on oil infrastructure guarantees that someone is going to have to starve. That is a position that is certainly not going to be politically acceptable.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2886 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
shortonoil wrote:
Starvid wrote:
Let's say the cost will be $65 trillion.
You are making an assumption here, and that is that the world GDP will stay at $65 trillion for the next 10 years. In actuality it is about $57 trillion and the chances of it staying there for 10 years is now approaching zero.
10% is equal to the food budget of the entire planet. With the world economy unraveling at a frightening rate, spending 10% on oil infrastructure guarantees that someone is going to have to starve. That is a position that is certainly not going to be politically acceptable.
According to Wikipedia, the world economy is $48 trillion or $54 trillion. I checked those numbers when I wrote that post I could've been damned that the numbers said $65 trillion. Anyway, it doesn't matter much.
Will world GDP grow or shrink going forward? On one hand we have a growing energy crisis, on the other hand the world economy is growing at a good speed, even great, in spite of these energy prices. Speculating if the economy will grow or shrink, or by how much, is not doable with any degree of certainty. So using the current number is as good as any.
And I wonder what you mean by "world economy unraveling at a frightening rate"?
There are problems in the US, but Europe and Asia are doing perfectly fine, and with our strong domestic markets we don't really need the US anymore. This is especially true for the emerging markets in Asia, who get about 90-95 % of their growth from domestic demand. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4715 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
I wonder where that $100 trillion number comes from.
Unless he can give us some information about what exactly he's talking about...I'm inclined to call this an exaggeration. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2256 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 7:00 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
I don't know where the $100 trillion comes from, but the 2006 IEA world energy outlook said it would take $20 trillion to develop new energy resources between 2005-2030 to meet increasing demand. So, if it takes $20 trillion to build new infrastructure (ain't going to happen), $100 trillion to replace the existing may not be that unreasonable.
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 8:47 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
If, as Simmons says, "Peak oil is a reality. In 2005 we had peak production..." , then the $50-100 trillion he is proposing be spent rebuilding the oil industry is at best just going to produce a less severe decline. But still a decline. Two steps forward, three steps back.
And how long would the $50-100T investment keep us going for: another 10 or 20 years? He can't be serious, IMHO Simmons is just using another way of highlighting the corner into which we have painted ourselves.
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 9:25 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
Starvid wrote:
Net Exports now represent under 1/20 of GDP growth in China
Which has little to do with the fact that, according to the CIA World Factbook CIA Fact Book
37.5% of their GDP is generated from exports. Which is the highest in the world of any industrialized nation (if not any nation).
Quote:
There are problems in the US, but Europe and Asia are doing perfectly fine,
If you want to call the collapse of Northern Rock, the $36 billion dollar loss for Credit Sussi, the upcoming bankruptcy of Spain, the 16% unemployment rate in Germany, the 44% increase in food cost in the UK, 5% of China’s power plants shut down for lack of coal, the Asian food crisis, and etc. doing fine, OK.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1407 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 10:27 pm Post subject: Re: OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructu
Quote:
The oil and gas industry will need to invest $50-100 trillion to rebuild its ageing infrastructure within the next 7 years and stave off a serious drop in oil and gas production, Matt Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International, told OGJ May 5 at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston.
Uh, yeah. What else do we expect Matt Simmons to say? _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
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