Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 4:31 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
chris-h said:
Quote:
The goal of teaching to kids is to make them obey.
You must obey .
You must learn to obey.
If you cannot learn to obey well they call it a disease adhd and give you drugs.
Unlike the amateurs of social control the government of the soviet union that sent people to siberia for social control the pros simply give drugs to the little children when they disobey authority.
Bravo .Good job.
Apparently you have never seen or worked with a child who has to go home every night to be beaten by a drunken father or crack-head mother. Our school system is vastly overwhelmed by social conditions that have become endemically destructive. Home for many of these kids is not a refuge, it is a place of brutal adversarial challenges. The system is attempting to manage, with limited resources, a social perversion of unprecedented magnitude. Although I abhor the use of drugs to control these children’s behavioral problems; problems that usually arise from a lack of parental attention, there are times when no other option is available. This society, which is now based on self-serving nihilism has all to often, become a society that has abdicated its future. Its children.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5167 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 4:49 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
I didn't know the title of this thread had changed to "Housing, Economic, and Schooling Collapse"!
Anyway, with no disrespect to anyone here or even in the media, I am still completely unimpressed that some are blaming speculators for high oil prices. Generally, those blaming speculators are focusing narrrowly on US gasoline demand - which is growing very slowly - but this ignores the explosion of demand in the rest of the world - especially for diesel as electrical grids fail or fall behind demand.
Granted short term speculation does have some influence on supply. However after reveiwing many energy industry earnings reports, energy companies almost universally went short the energy markets last year and lost literally billions by misjudging how high the price of energy would go. As these energy companies go from net short positions to even just net neutral market positions, they are effectively adding to the price gains for energy.
Last year I asked - can anyone prove that speculators were not net short - and not net long the energy markets - and no one gave a sophisticated response. My conclusion was that speculators were net short - and they actually were pushing down prices last year at the same time many were saying they were pushing prices up.
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 5:22 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
DantesPeak said:
Quote:
I didn't know the title of this thread had changed to "Housing, Economic, and Schooling Collapse"!
Sorry for the interruption to the thread, but the subject is, and should be for most people a highly emotional one. But I agree, we should take our rants elsewhere.
Quote:
Last year I asked - can anyone prove that speculators were not net short - and not net long the energy markets - and no one gave a sophisticated response. My conclusion was that speculators were net short - and they actually were pushing down prices last year at the same time many were saying they were pushing prices up.
I have also given every argument, including the above which I probably got from you, to the case that speculation has little to do with long term price. Still, many people seem to WANT to be convinced that speculators are driving up the prices. I have come to the conclusion that these assessments are totally emotionally based, and result from nothing more than mimicry of media releases. This has gotten to be so bad that some idiot proposed a bill in Congress to control it. All I can say at this point is; PATHETIC!
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 5:37 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
The SpeculatoRZS are guLTY as CHarged LOL
Our eLite Leaders are not LOLZ !!!!
BecaUSe who ELZE coLD be GUILTZZZ ?
For exampole WE HAVE the Most WISE PRESIdenTE of ALL
TIMEZ LOLZ !!!
And the most INTepeNTENT from INDUSTRY coNGRess ever
LOLZ !!!!
And our moST infoRMATIVE FAUx media everz LOLZ !!!!
PLUS we are NOt guilty !!!!
We needz that SUVA and big HOMA to FeeLZ gooDZ lolz !!!
SpoilED 50 yeARZ olDZ chilDREN are CuTE theY caNNOT be guilTY LOLZ !!!!!
ITS ALL faulT of THose BAD BIG UGLY sPECulaTORZZZZZ ePIC lOLZZZZ !!!!!! _________________ IMHO great war will happen soon.
Start preparing now.
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 5:56 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
shortonoil wrote:
This society, which is now based on self-serving nihilism has all to often, become a society that has abdicated its future. Its children.
That should be carved in stone. There are all kinds of reasons some kids shouldn't be in the traditional school system. Teachers shouldn't have to make medical choices, because it is their only way of coping with the child in a crowded classroom.
This is also why fundamentalist religions, which I usually slam, are gaining ground. They see the problems with unhappy messed up kids, and aren't afraid to speak up about it.
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 6:01 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
DantesPeak wrote:
I didn't know the title of this thread had changed to "Housing, Economic, and Schooling Collapse"!
Anyway, with no disrespect to anyone here or even in the media, I am still completely unimpressed that some are blaming speculators for high oil prices. Generally, those blaming speculators are focusing narrrowly on US gasoline demand - which is growing very slowly - but this ignores the explosion of demand in the rest of the world - especially for diesel as electrical grids fail or fall behind demand.
Granted short term speculation does have some influence on supply. However after reveiwing many energy industry earnings reports, energy companies almost universally went short the energy markets last year and lost literally billions by misjudging how high the price of energy would go. As these energy companies go from net short positions to even just net neutral market positions, they are effectively adding to the price gains for energy.
Last year I asked - can anyone prove that speculators were not net short - and not net long the energy markets - and no one gave a sophisticated response. My conclusion was that speculators were net short - and they actually were pushing down prices last year at the same time many were saying they were pushing prices up.
They misjudged the price, because they couldn't predict the actions of hedge funds, and Opec, and demand was easily being met by supply. Also, you mention rising demand for gasoline in the U.S. when I've read it's actually shrinking.
Here is an article I'm reposting about SWF. (Not single white female ) but sovereign wealth fund in the oil futures markets.
By placing bets in futures markets, these sovereign-wealth funds are no different than hedge funds, pension funds and other institutional investors, with one exception: at the same time they profit by trading "paper" barrels, their governments' oil companies also reap huge sums pumping black gold for consumers worldwide.
Canadian Business:
While there is no public data proving that sovereign wealth funds invest in oil futures contracts, energy analysts say it's likely they're making financial wagers on oil — and other commodities — for the same reasons as other institutional investors: to take advantage of rising global demand and to cushion them from the falling dollar.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1560 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 7:15 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
threadbear wrote:
Also, you mention rising demand for gasoline in the U.S. when I've read it's actually shrinking.
Actually, it's pretty much flat over the last three years.
It's pretty impressive that a 50% run up in prices over the last three years hasn't really dented usage. I hear people say it all the time, "I have to drive to live". _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 8:36 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
threadbear said:
Quote:
They misjudged the price, because they couldn't predict the actions of hedge funds, and Opec, and demand was easily being met by supply. Also, you mention rising demand for gasoline in the U.S. when I've read it's actually shrinking.
Here is an article I'm reposting about SWF. (Not single white female Laughing) but sovereign wealth fund in the oil futures markets.
Anyone can predict the actions of who ever is in the market. The statistics are plastered all over the net. One can tell at any moment just what the volume is and what is being paid for it. Like:
Code:
NYMEX futures market is showing Put/Call ratios of 2
CBOE options are showing Put/Call ratios of 2.1
DB oil fund options Put/Call ratios are 4
No one misjudged the price - it is advertised world wide every instant. Right now the market is very bearish. Let’s see what happens over the next week!
joewp said:
Quote:
It's pretty impressive that a 50% run up in prices over the last three years hasn't really dented usage. I hear people say it all the time, "I have to drive to live".
That is what one would call inelastic, vertical, a straight up and down line, infinite slope! This will only change when they don’t have a job anymore. Since it has to change because of PO, that means that soon they won’t have a job anymore!
We could tell them, but they wouldn’t listen, so why bother!
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
INDIA - Realty does reality check, prices fall 15-20% in Q1
Quote:
NEW DELHI: If high prices have been holding you from buying your dream house all these years, here’s something to cheer about. In the first quarter of this year, there has been a 15-20% price correction in markets across the country, especially in the residential segment.
As PO reduces world energy supplies, world economies slow. India is now the next on the list of countries with crashing real estate prices. If they follow the US pattern, banks will be next!
Prime Stars Blowing UP
Quote:
Mortgage crisis seeps to prime loans
The first concrete evidence that delinquencies on mortgage bills have spread well beyond those with subpar credit shows that even prime borrowers have increasingly fallen behind on their house payments.
The figures remain relatively small so far. But if they rise further, delinquencies on prime loans — given only to those with good credit — could prolong the housing crisis.
Well, surprise, surprise - inventory is still going up, interest rates are going up, consumer costs are skyrocketing and prime mortgages begin turning down. The institutions holding mortgages as assets are toast. But don’t worry, “its contained”.
Quote:
Shanghai Bourse to Crack Down on Illegal Stock Sales
China's securities regulator last month tightened the rules for the sale of locked-up shares to help revive the country's stock market, which has plunged 27 percent this year. Shares worth 1.7 trillion yuan ($243 billion) will become eligible for trading this year and 4.3 trillion yuan in 2009 as lock-up periods end, the Shanghai Securities News said on Jan. 9.
For all of you who think that China’s economy is sound, you should know that it is a bigger house of cards than anything in the US. It is also run by a bigger set of crooks. When it goes, the explosion will be heard around the world. What you will hear will be the new Chinese revolution going off!
Europe cracking up also? Looks like it!
Quote:
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, tomorrow will announce a writedown of $4.6 billion linked to losses against mortgages, credit cards and other loans to U.S. consumers, the Observer reported, without saying where it got the information.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 2951 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
I've now seen, several times, items mentioning that house inventories are increasing, but the reason is never mentioned.
It seems to me that as people lose their homes and those homes are back on the market, that could account for the "rise in inventory." _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 10:16 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Ferretlover wrote:
I've now seen, several times, items mentioning that house inventories are increasing, but the reason is never mentioned.
It seems to me that as people lose their homes and those homes are back on the market, that could account for the "rise in inventory."
The more important reason is new construction. Right now there is a rush to complete projects commenced last year, as a skeleton will sell for nothing, while an unwanted house will eventually sell for something. Construction workers will work for as long as their wages are paid, whether or not it makes any kind of macroeconomic sense. So you will see new build additions to inventory right through this year. New developments not yet started though, even in the UK they are being canned now. So this year or the next will be the year of mass layoffs in that sector. So far we haven't really seen as much as we will. _________________ "The American people are watching the numbers climb higher and higher at the pump and they're waiting to see what the Congress will do." - George W Bush
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5167 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 11:04 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
[quote="shortonoil"]
Quote:
Mortgage crisis seeps to prime loans
The first concrete evidence that delinquencies on mortgage bills have spread well beyond those with subpar credit shows that even prime borrowers have increasingly fallen behind on their house payments.
The figures remain relatively small so far. But if they rise further, delinquencies on prime loans — given only to those with good credit — could prolong the housing crisis.
Apparently those with the lowest amount of equity (value of home less the amount of mortgage) and the lowest income were the first to default.
Those with higher incomes and higher mortgages have been able to refinance their mortgages (before mid-2007) to pay off escalating interest charges. From what I've heard, some incurred substantial refinancing costs to prevent from being foreclosed in 2007.
Due to the fact that home values are dropping, the refinancing window has now been closed on high income borrowers. When those with larger mortgages default, the amount of foreclosure losses per default will be much greater than those experienced with sub-prime borrowers.
As I've said before, anyone who thinks the mortgage crisis is over - and who doesn't see the most rapid debasement of the US (Federal Reserve) dollar in history - just doesn't want to look at the facts.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 6:09 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
DantesPeak said:
Quote:
As I've said before, anyone who thinks the mortgage crisis is over - and who doesn't see the most rapid debasement of the US (Federal Reserve) dollar in history - just doesn't want to look at the facts.
Quote:
Brian Pretti: "Treasury auctions of the last month or so have experienced a paucity of foreign buyers show up to bid. Let's put it this way, if this trend of lackluster response to Treasury auctions on the part of the foreign community were to continue near term for whatever reason, we could indeed be looking at a serious issue for Treasury yields (meaning they have fallen too far to the downside to attract foreign interest). We'll just have to see what happens."
The housing market is beginning to look like a perpetual motion machine. At least it will look that way until its nuts, bolts and screws fall out. Weakness for Treasuries will mean higher long bond rates in general, which will mean higher mortgage rates, which mean that more people will find themselves underwater on their home, which means that more people will default, which will put more homes on the market, which will push housing prices down, which will mean more people will be underwater on their homes..........etc.
Round and round she goes. The bottom could be a long, long, long way down!
The fallout from the housing crisis is still grinding on.
Quote:
The outlook for the rest of the year remains unusually difficult to foresee in the current environment,'' Chairman Stephen Green said today in a Regulatory News Service statement.
HSBC is huge in Asia so that helps insulate it at the moment from the UK US economic slowdown.
Quote:
HSBC, which makes about two thirds of its profit in emerging markets, said in March that the U.S. economy and credit outlook may deteriorate before it improves. The London-based bank set aside about $12 billion for U.S. loan losses last year and an additional $5.2 billion for the rest of the world. Net income rose 21 percent in 2007 to $19.1 billion, helped by loan growth in Asia and Latin America.
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) but sovereign wealth fund in the oil futures markets.
