Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1084 Location: Everywhere
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Ferretlover wrote:
I am so, so sorry that you have to leave your great home!
Aye I was pottering around in the garden today & wishing things could be some other way. The kids had built themselves a den down by the duck-pond & had done their usual trick of evading me when I called for lunch-time. But who can blame them for that when there's big lumps of mud to throw at each other and trees to climb and the days are getting so long and hot...
But we have to leave - I know that. It would be foolish to try and stretch things out in a foreign land, now that everything's going wierd. If it was just my wife & I, well we would stay, but we have to think about the children.
And anyhow, we can build again. Life isn't something that happens to you from outside. It comes from within, or it isn't life at all, IMHO. Everything that we REALLY need for the future we take with us. Something that's very small, very portable, but also bigger than the whole world...
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1084 Location: Everywhere
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 6:07 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Ludi wrote:
JPL wrote:
I'd thought about ways in which the greenhouses could be heated (wood, mainly) but even then you are fighting against the natural climate of the area.
I agree. It's much more sensible to go with some kind of permacultural approach as you point out.
Most of the permaculture people in the UK - as far as I can figure - are now talking about re-forestation as the best way forward. Unfortunately this is currently impossible because of population density & land issues. So we're kind-of stuck right-now.
I personally think that fossil fuel depletion will make standard 'British' farming techniques obsolete in the next 10 years or so and then natural regeneration of the woodlands will take place, but it does rather highlight the issue of what to say to all those people in the cities (groan).
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6349 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:28 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Reading through the Professors recent papers (linked to above I came across This One:
Quote:
The 2007 Word of the Year was “Locavore,” according to the Oxford University Press. “The past year saw the popularization of a trend in using locally grown ingredients, taking advantage of seasonally available foodstuffs that can be bought and prepared without the need for extra preservatives” (http://blog.oup.com/2007/11/locavore/). However, the locavore movement is not just about eating seasonally; it is the latest phase in a transition from an industrial to a sustainable food economy. The local foods movement began in the United States in the 1960s among the “back to the landers.” They began the “natural foods” movement, not only as a rejection of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides but also a rejection of the industrialization of agriculture.
Not only do we have this trend to consider, but also The Green Bubble stemming from global warming threats and the too real situation of increasing transportation cost but the dawning realization among the general population of the Rich World that others are starving.
Against the background of the typhoon in Burma and the tornadoes that killed a few folks the next county over Susan said an interesting thing this morning listening to a story about the earthquake in China:
"Mother Nature seems to be getting pissed at us."
My question here is simply this:
Is there a dawning realization that we (the human race) might need to change what we are doing and GW is just the popular face at this point?
Will such change the buying habits at the grocery store, which of course is the demand side of the supply and demand equation in Ag? _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 335 Location: Mississippi Delta
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 3:40 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
[quote="Pops"]Reading through the Professors recent papers (linked to above I came across This One:
Quote:
My question here is simply this:
Is there a dawning realization that we (the human race) might need to change what we are doing and GW is just the popular face at this point?
Will such change the buying habits at the grocery store, which of course is the demand side of the supply and demand equation in Ag?
I was discussing something like this with a bank trust officer who manages a lot of farm land the other day. Right now, there are just a lot of forces driving commodity prices up. The flooding in the midwest, the ongoing drought in Australia, even the cyclone in Myanmar have taken a lot of grain production out of the mix. There's a sort of slow panic going on, and I think GW and other environmental concerns may have added to some of the fear that has driven some of the interest in local, better food.
Pollan's book, and the aging of the population are also factors, I'm sure.
The feds are even earmarking some dollars toward what they call "food security" as I'm sure you're aware as a small farmer. This has included some pretty good programs for smaller production and distribution such as farmer's markets.
That all being said, I'd like to think that a higher ethic is growing, but no one ever went broke underestimating the ethics of the global consumer... _________________ OK, I give up. If they want to sell us real stuff for our Monopoly money, who am I to argue?
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Lets not forget that ethanol/biodiesel were all pushed big time by the enviro weenies. Without a thought to the unintended consequences. PC feel good Liberal policies. And our weak minded spineless politicians bought into it, hook line and sinker. So did many right here at first. Me I would still go for bio/waste oil diesel. But only using the scraps and waste from farming.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:21 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
deMolay wrote:
Lets not forget that ethanol/biodiesel were all pushed big time by the enviro weenies. Without a thought to the unintended consequences. PC feel good Liberal policies. And our weak minded spineless politicians bought into it, hook line and sinker. So did many right here at first. Me I would still go for bio/waste oil diesel. But only using the scraps and waste from farming.
Yes I think you are right because I am one of those as you describe above, although I'm not really an enviro-weenie. I did think it was a great idea before I was educated about the folly of biofuels. To my own credit, I held reservations as to it's real effectiveness pending an assesment of EROEI. Now that I know, I admit it and have moved on. The madness is in the people, some around here, that still defend it.
Joined: Mar 07, 2007 Posts: 281 Location: Holland, United Kingdom (of the seven Netherlands)
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 11:49 am Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
deMolay wrote:
Lets not forget that ethanol/biodiesel were all pushed big time by the enviro weenies.
Most of the environmentalists have been making their reservations for a long time. They said: we should move to sustainable energy, but only if we can guarantee that it will not affect the food supply. The politicians just ignored the food supply part. Same with sustainable use of land and not chopping down rain forests.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6349 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:13 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
We seem to be rambling a bit here. Lets go back to the question of textiles. While certainly wool in an option in some places it isn't great everywhere. Flax and hemp are both less input intensive than cotton and have a larger growing region.
But the fact is we use lots of petroleum based textiles and we in the US ship raw material to China and finished goods back home. Of course with less disposable income the demand for textiles will decrease greatly but if we are to re-localize then we will also need to reinvent the textile manufacturing process as well as the production of the raw material
.
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:37 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Heineken wrote:
Big Ag must die off and replaced by small ag, 19th century style.
The essential shift that is taking place is that instead of producing food that is incredibly cheap and abundant, Big Ag will be producing food that is incredibly expensive, and with a supply and distribution system that is increasingly unreliable and uneven. Although I don't believe in straight-line extrapolations, it's easy to see how the current arrangement is headed for certain collapse.
Farming as we have it is all about giant machinery, herbicides, pesticides, chemical fertilizers, immense processing plants, refrigeration, and the trucking industry and its associated infrastructure. All almost completely dependent on oil and other fossil fuels.
It can't continue; but the changes that are needed in agriculture must be accompanied by a total revolution in how people live and work.
We need a world of small, walkable towns, surrounded by cottage industries, surrounded in turn by small farms run by people and not corporations, surrounded in turn by forest and wilderness. All connected by trains. I've been saying this for years, but we haven't moved one inch closer to that world, at least not in the US. Other than the ethanol craze, some windmills and solar panels, and greater awareness and application of various conservation measures, I don't see any revolution happening, Pops. The corn planters are getting greased up and ready to roll, just as always this time of year.
Like any other mega-business, Big Ag will resist REAL change with all the power and bucks at its disposal. Institutions don't let go, they are crushed by factors they eventually can no longer control.
This pretty much says it all. It's an issue of gigantic scale enabled by cheap addictive petroleum and the absolute lack of alternatives for people trapped in cities and suburbia. As the economy falters and energy becomes more dear things we take for granted will change. For the worse. Organic needs the same or more energy than conventional and so will not fix anything.
I believe grains will be farmed. But all food supplies in general will be less dependable. Long haul trucks will occasionally be parked for lack of fuel. High energy costs mean less refrigeration and fresh vegetables and packaged meats. It also means less processed and packaged convenience foods. Fewer products, less choice, empty shelves.
More grains. Porridge in the morning, gruel for lunch, and mush at night. Yum
The alternative universe that Heiny envisions, however beautiful and sustainable, will never come to pass because the wealthy own the land and do not want you or I anywhere near it. A real economy is a threat to the industrial resource-extraction machine that we live inside. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:38 pm Post subject: Re: Agriculture Response to Peak Oil
Heineken wrote:
Big Ag must die off and replaced by small ag, 19th century style.
The essential shift that is taking place is that instead of producing food that is incredibly cheap and abundant, Big Ag will be producing food that is incredibly expensive, and with a supply and distribution system that is increasingly unreliable and uneven. Although I don't believe in straight-line extrapolations, it's easy to see how the current arrangement is headed for certain collapse.
Farming as we have it is all about giant machinery, herbicides, pesticides, chemical fertilizers, immense processing plants, refrigeration, and the trucking industry and its associated infrastructure. All almost completely dependent on oil and other fossil fuels.
It can't continue; but the changes that are needed in agriculture must be accompanied by a total revolution in how people live and work.
We need a world of small, walkable towns, surrounded by cottage industries, surrounded in turn by small farms run by people and not corporations, surrounded in turn by forest and wilderness. All connected by trains. I've been saying this for years, but we haven't moved one inch closer to that world, at least not in the US. Other than the ethanol craze, some windmills and solar panels, and greater awareness and application of various conservation measures, I don't see any revolution happening, Pops. The corn planters are getting greased up and ready to roll, just as always this time of year.
Like any other mega-business, Big Ag will resist REAL change with all the power and bucks at its disposal. Institutions don't let go, they are crushed by factors they eventually can no longer control.
This pretty much says it all. It's an issue of gigantic scale enabled by cheap addictive petroleum and the absolute lack of alternatives for people trapped in cities and suburbia. As the economy falters and energy becomes more dear things we take for granted will change. For the worse. Organic needs the same or more energy than conventional and so will not fix anything.
I believe grains will be farmed. But all food supplies in general will be less dependable. Long haul trucks will occasionally be parked for lack of fuel. High energy costs mean less refrigeration and fresh vegetables and packaged meats. It also means less processed and packaged convenience foods. Fewer products, less choice, empty shelves.
More grains. Porridge in the morning, gruel for lunch, and mush at night. Yum
The alternative universe that Heiny envisions, however beautiful and sustainable, will never come to pass because the wealthy own the land and do not want you or I anywhere near it. A real economy is a threat to the industrial resource-extraction machine that we live inside. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
