Joined: Dec 09, 2004 Posts: 492 Location: Around somewhere
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 12:17 am Post subject: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
So far It's not a disaster but if the rain doesn't let up it could get ugly. Many fields in the area I live haven't even been tilled yet. Some are under water.
Quote:
Even with 30 percent of this year's expected harvest going toward ethanol, corn must contend with a far more difficult factor this week: weather.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday blamed wet weather for late plantings in parts of key corn growing states. As a result, predictions are that corn production could be down as much as 7 percent from last year's record harvest.
Martin Barbre in Carmi, Ill., about five hours south of Chicago, has planted only about a third of his 2,000 acres of corn. Rain this week put him three weeks behind his usual schedule in the season.
"As wet as the ground is now, we're going to need four to five days just to dry out," Barbre said Friday. "We need 10 straight days of dry weather actually."
Each day after May 15 without any corn in the ground could trim yields by about one bushel of corn per acre at harvest time. With 86 million acres of corn expected to be planted nationwide, the losses could be devastating and further tighten supplies months from now, said Ray Grabanski, president of Progressive Ag Marketing in North Dakota.
"It's a race against the weather," Grabanski said. "The later the crop is planted the more you become susceptible to other weather losses. One is heat during pollination, the other is freezing before harvest."
Joined: Aug 07, 2005 Posts: 302 Location: Columbia, MO
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 4:54 am Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
It just keeps raining here. It is likely that many farmers in MO and IL/IN will not be able to plant. It's also been cold, and things that are planted are not growing as fast as they should.
At least we will have peaches and apples this year.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 5:49 am Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
dooberheim wrote:
It just keeps raining here. It is likely that many farmers in MO and IL/IN will not be able to plant. It's also been cold, and things that are planted are not growing as fast as they should.
At least we will have peaches and apples this year.
DK
Australia is yet to get a break in it's season. About 80% of the country is yet to get rain for the cereal crops. The next three to four weeks will tell the story. Every week from now without rain will send yields lower and put further strain on world food prices. God is indeed speaking...are we listening??
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4451 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 9:43 am Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
I wouldn't sound the alarms yet, but if it doesn't warm up and dry out soon, yields are going to start taking a hit. We NEED a huge crop again, and right now that doesn't look likely. With this...
not helping.
Its in the 40's up here right now...not sure what soil temps are doing, but i'm guessing they are low/moist. Corn needs HEAT and lots of it. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 10:10 am Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
Dooberheim, SD_Scott- I'm just a hair south or you guys and I definitely see it here too. Standing water in places where I have never seen it before. Yesterday we got hit with what I can only describe as a cold monsoon wave of water that made it almost a white-out. Now this morning cold wind which is tearing the leaves off the trees.
I have watched the days go by one after the other when I should have planted but could not. The inside of my house is becoming a jungle of seedlings needing a place to go. If I don't get these plants in the ground soon I will have to start over.
How thin is the edge we have in global food supplies? Thin enough that all it takes is a hiccough from Mama Nature to throw us into a disaster from which we may not recover. I have a bad feeling about this summer.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 10:17 am Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
Virginia - colder than hell here. Lived here for 9 years and have never seen a spring as wet and cold as what we are getting. I just went in an turned the heat back on and shut the windows. The winter wheat crop seems to be doing alright, but the soybeans haven’t even started. The only thing growing well is the dam lawn!
On the coast here I suspect the temperature may be being affected by the slowing of Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is 500 miles further out to sea than it was just a few years ago, so we aren’t getting much heat from the warm tropical waters. The reason for the colder temperatures in the mid section of the country must be arctic in origin. Maybe we are entering another ice age? Our 10,000 year interglacial should be about up. If it starts snowing and snows for 20 years straight, we’ll know what it is!
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3909 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 10:33 am Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
Short, I would put just as much money on an ice age as I would global warming. The Sun is entering into a cycle in which its out put is supposed to decline significantly.
I got to go through hail larger than golf balls this year, let me tell you that was not fun at all. We just paid to put a new roof it was a 50 year roof that lasted 3. I have a rubbermaid trashcan that has 4 large holes through the top of it. The storm was humbling to say the least.
Joined: Dec 09, 2004 Posts: 492 Location: Around somewhere
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 11:12 am Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
buzzard wrote:
Dooberheim, SD_Scott- I'm just a hair south or you guys and I definitely see it here too. Standing water in places where I have never seen it before. Yesterday we got hit with what I can only describe as a cold monsoon wave of water that made it almost a white-out. Now this morning cold wind which is tearing the leaves off the trees.
I have watched the days go by one after the other when I should have planted but could not. The inside of my house is becoming a jungle of seedlings needing a place to go. If I don't get these plants in the ground soon I will have to start over.
How thin is the edge we have in global food supplies? Thin enough that all it takes is a hiccough from Mama Nature to throw us into a disaster from which we may not recover. I have a bad feeling about this summer.
Most of my family is from the Ozarks. Quite a beautiful area and a good place to be if TSHTF. Lots of water, fish and game, etc. I lived in Lebanon MO. for a couple of years after being on the west coast for a long time. Bit of a culture change but no biggie.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5905 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 12:00 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
Delayed planting has deffered some diesel demand. Had spring farm demand for diesel hit about the same time as recent strike problems in Europe, there may have been scattered deisel shortgages in the US. As it is the retail price of diesel is up 50% in a relatively short time period.
In the longer term, if the US experiences colder years, upward pressure on the price of diesel - and therefore on oil - will be persistent.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5905 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
Homesteader wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
In the longer term, if the US experiences colder years, upward pressure on the price of diesel - and therefore on oil - will be persistent.
What connection are you seeing between persistent cold springs and upward pressure on diesel and oil?
Overall US oil demand may have dropped about 100,000 bpd so far this year - due to high prices and a relatively ok winter temperatures. At this point in the PO era, even an increase of a few hundred thousand barrles a day of heating oil/diesel demand may be just enough to push availble US supplies below minimum operating levels. At or below MOLs, oil product deliveries start to become chaotic and the price increases rapidly.
This could happen as early as fall harvest season, although I am not yet making a specific prediction that would happen this year.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1988 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:59 am Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
DantesPeak wrote:
Overall US oil demand may have dropped about 100,000 bpd so far this year
Not sure what you mean by that. I just checked the latest STEO, on the EIA website and found that consumption has risen for the last three months (Feb, Mar, Apr). It's about 200,000 bpd below last year but hit a low point in Feb, since when it has risen.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6555 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 corn planting delayed due to weather
I mentioned this a couple weeks ago in another thread. Here is corn section of the USDA supply and demand report from Friday:
Quote:
COARSE GRAINS: The 2008/09 U.S. feed grains outlook is for lower production, strong domestic demand, and lower ending stocks. The 2008/09 corn crop is projected at 12.1 billion bushels, down 7 percent from the record 2007/08 crop. Planted area is from producer intentions reported in Prospective Plantings. Harvested area is based on historical abandonment and derived demand for silage. The yield is projected at 153.9 bushels per acre, 1 bushel per acre below the 1990-2007 trend
WASDE-458-2 based on the slower-than-average pace of planting as reported in Crop Progress. The projected yield assumes a mid-May planting progress near the 10-year average and reflective of last year’s May planting pace. Corn supplies fall 870 million bushels from the 2007/08 record with a small increase in carryin more than offset by the projected 949-million-bushel reduction in output. Higher year-to-year
beginning stocks reflect this month’s 100-million-bushel reduction in 2007/08 corn use for ethanol.
Total U.S. corn use in 2008/09 is projected down 2 percent as reductions in feed and residual use and exports more than offset a continued expansion in ethanol production. Feed and residual use is
projected down 14 percent as corn feeding declines with increased production of distillers grains, higher corn prices, and reduced red meat production. Corn exports are projected down 16 percent as
U.S. supplies face increased world competition with increased foreign production and a sharp drop in EU-27 imports. Ethanol use is projected at 4 billion bushels, up 33 percent from 2007/08. The slowing
pace of plant construction and expansion, and lower capacity utilization are expected to modestly dampen growth in ethanol corn use. With total corn use expected to exceed production by 635 million bushels, ending stocks are projected down 45 percent. At 763 million bushels, ending stocks would be the lowest since 1995/96. The season-average price is projected at $5.00 to $6.00 per bushel, well above the current year’s forecast record of $4.10 to $4.40 per bushel.
Global coarse grains production for 2008/09 is projected at 1.1 billion tons, up slightly from the current year record, despite the year-to-year decline in U.S. corn output. Foreign coarse-grain production is
expected to increase 4 percent from 2007/08. World coarse grain output reflects year-to-year increases in projected corn production in Argentina, Brazil, China, EU-27, and FSU-12. World coarse
grain output is also boosted by a recovery in barley production in Australia, EU-27, and FSU-12.
Global coarse grain imports and exports are projected to decline in 2008/09 mostly reflecting lower EU-27 corn and sorghum imports and lower U.S. corn exports. Global coarse grain feeding is projected
lower with declines in U.S. corn feeding more than offsetting the increase in foreign corn feeding.
World coarse grain ending stocks are projected to fall 6 percent as declines in U.S. corn ending stocks more than offset increases elsewhere. At the projected 99.0 million tons, 2008/09 global corn ending stocks are expected to hit a 25-year low.
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