Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4388 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 4:53 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Gazzatrone wrote:
vision-master wrote:
Remember, we had fuel shortages in the 70's and it happened pretty quick.
Peak Oil production in the good ol USA.
But they were in real terms a "manufactured" shortage. The basic point of Peak Oil is that supply will still be available. The problem lies in how much that supply will cost.
The issues of Peak Oil are not totally inclusive of oil running out. EROEI and the simple ability to be able to afford fuel will be the tell tale signs of TSHTF.
I think in simple terms, if you can afford it then there will be no shortage. Oil producers will always be willing to sell to someone equally willing enough to purchase. Regardless of cost, but for those that can't afford it. Tough titty.
Are you talking on a personal basis or societal ? I mean the grocery store was out of bananas today. No bananas means no bananas.
Joined: Nov 07, 2005 Posts: 556 Location: London, UK
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 6:42 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
vision-master wrote:
Are you talking on a personal basis or societal ? I mean the grocery store was out of bananas today. No bananas means no bananas.
"We have no bananas today".
I think we can differentiate between the two. No bananas doesn't signify a social collapse.
Seriously, don't even try. The two are simply incomparable. There's a reason it's called Black Gold.
And I mean on a social scale. Over here in the UK, there's a pretty tangible, growing hopelessness when it comes to fuel prices. Yes the tax plays a lot. But people over here are I think being pushed to breaking point.
Where even 5 years ago, the cost of fuel wasn't even a second thought, when you see £5 a gallon (about $10) you have to wonder how soon the collapse will be. _________________ THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
Joined: Oct 17, 2007 Posts: 114 Location: New of Zealand
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:08 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Perhaps, but I still think petrol prices will have a long way to go before it's simply unaffordable. Like you said, 5 years ago you didn't give it a second thought. Only now are we having to budget for fuel. Its still not a major outgoing for most people, not compared to rent, mortgage, food, holidays, etc...
Short-term shortages caused by weather, riots, war, etc... is a sign that supply is very tight. Should another Katrina arrive it would hurt a lot.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:39 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
I think it has a long way to go still also, gas prices suck, but its not a big deal. I think when it hits $6 that will be when it becomes a real ISSUE. Even at that point people might have to give up thier $80 a month cell phone, boo hoo.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 10:27 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Gerben wrote:
Very expensive oil means that it is scarce. There will not be a shortage. It will be there, but you just won't be able to afford it.
At the moment gold is scarce too. There is no shortage. I'd like a golden car, but can't afford it.
Shortage is measured relative to demand, so stop splitting hairs already.
Oil is not a luxury like a golden car, at least in the US it's a NECESSITY.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 11:16 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
I don't think it is a necessity for everybody. You can move very close to your job and ride a bicycle, and heat your house with wood. You can even get one of these and drive for .25 a day.
www.sunnev.com _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12582 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Revi wrote:
I don't think it is a necessity for everybody. You can move very close to your job and ride a bicycle, and heat your house with wood. You can even get one of these and drive for .25 a day.
www.sunnev.com
Are they made with some plastic (oil) components? _________________ No original ideas are contained in this post.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 599 Location: The Pit of Despair
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 11:33 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
btu2012 wrote:
Shortage is measured relative to demand, so stop splitting hairs already.
Oil is not a luxury like a golden car, at least in the US it's a NECESSITY.
Btu
I have no idea what you mean by "relative to demand". I am in agreement with those that believe that crude / gasoline / diesel prices will steadily rise over time. There will be some at the pump, but you just won't buy as much when it's $10/gallon as you do now.
When I look around at all the gluttonous consumption surrounding me in the US, I have to disagree with the statement that oil is a necessity. A certain amount per capita is, of course... but not the ridiculous quantities we currently enjoy.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:12 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
When you can't afford it it becomes a luxury. I think we will all be able to afford some gas, but not as much as we buy now. We'll all have to amuse ourselves without burning gas on the weekends. Or it could be that only the rich will be able to afford gas, and they will use it in the stupidest ways possible while the rest of us will be moving things around in oxcarts.
I have noticed that the rich people around here are getting bigger and bigger pickup trucks, while us middle class and poor are having a hard time keeping our small cars running. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:30 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Revi wrote:
I don't think it is a necessity for everybody. You can move very close to your job and ride a bicycle, and heat your house with wood. You can even get one of these and drive for .25 a day.
www.sunnev.com
You might have to pay dearly for a dwelling close to work if you work in a major city. I am sure that the new yorkers around here can explain.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:32 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
JoeW wrote:
I have no idea what you mean by "relative to demand".
Shortage simply means that there's less of the stuff than people/societies/industries need to function.
The US is built around cheap oil, that's why it's a necessity in the current US configuration. You'll need massive reorganization, infrastructure redevelopment etc to reduce reliance on oil in the US.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:35 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Revi wrote:
I have noticed that the rich people around here are getting bigger and bigger pickup trucks, while us middle class and poor are having a hard time keeping our small cars running.
Yeah, the social inequality levels are beginning to approach those of a banana republic. Time for people to remember that they have the power to vote.
Joined: Jun 18, 2004 Posts: 766 Location: Western North Carolina
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 1:09 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Quote:
that they have the power to vote
I wish that could make a difference. Something tells me no matter how many people voted for an anti-establishment candidate, that somehow the establishment contender would still win. The current system is too entrenched for any sort of radical change in direction through conventional means -- ie the voting booth.
Joseph Stalin has a famous quote noting that who the votes were cast for doesn't matter. What matters is who's counting the votes.
Electronic voting machines only make this more apparent, given the secrecy surround their source code, and the ease with which they can be 'hacked' to produce desired outcomes.
I read on here somewhere that ES&S finally let out their source code, but have not confirmed it myself. If that's true then I view that as a good sign, but that still leaves Sequoia and Diebold.
This presidential election cycle has confirmed to me that our electoral process is a sham. All three candidates represent the same interests for the most part. The only candidates who dared speak the truth were marginalized, ridiculed openly, and ultimately ignored.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Suppose there's a pipeline that carries oil from point a to point b. Now, suppose that pipeline is west of the great divide. Now, suppose that pipeline ruptures.
Is that a shortage, or a case of supply and demand?
If it's a supply and demand issue, supplies can easily be rerouted to meet soaring demand, and prices will stabilize.
If it's a shortage, supply cannot be brought to market, no matter the price. _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
Joined: Mar 07, 2007 Posts: 359 Location: Holland, United Kingdom (of the seven Netherlands)
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 2:45 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil * The final sign *
Dreamtwister wrote:
Suppose there's a pipeline that carries oil from point a to point b. Now, suppose that pipeline is west of the great divide. Now, suppose that pipeline ruptures.
Is that a shortage, or a case of supply and demand?
If it's a supply and demand issue, supplies can easily be rerouted to meet soaring demand, and prices will stabilize.
If it's a shortage, supply cannot be brought to market, no matter the price.
Just scarcity. I have a car that's still half-full with diesel. You can buy the diesel (with car if you want to) for only $ 1 mln. I'll use my bicycle till that pipeline is fixed. The weather is quite nice here atm.
Your making up a case here. I don't say a shortage can not exist, but it won't be the major case. Most of the problem of reduced supply will be a higher price. Shortage will only happen where the market fails to do its work.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
