Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:20 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
shortonoil wrote:
chris-h said:
Quote:
The goal of teaching to kids is to make them obey.
You must obey .
You must learn to obey.
If you cannot learn to obey well they call it a disease adhd and give you drugs.
Unlike the amateurs of social control the government of the soviet union that sent people to siberia for social control the pros simply give drugs to the little children when they disobey authority.
Bravo .Good job.
Apparently you have never seen or worked with a child who has to go home every night to be beaten by a drunken father or crack-head mother. Our school system is vastly overwhelmed by social conditions that have become endemically destructive. Home for many of these kids is not a refuge, it is a place of brutal adversarial challenges. The system is attempting to manage, with limited resources, a social perversion of unprecedented magnitude. Although I abhor the use of drugs to control these children’s behavioral problems; problems that usually arise from a lack of parental attention, there are times when no other option is available. This society, which is now based on self-serving nihilism has all to often, become a society that has abdicated its future. Its children.
On some forums I frequent, there is a feature by which you could appreciate a post by anyone, by giving it a plus. If such a feature were to exist on po.com, this would be a post I would give a plus to. (The plusses you gave didn't show publicly in any way. Just that if a post gathered more than one, the poster could see which of his posts had gathered plusses and how many of them.)
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:21 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
MD wrote:
You might want to first challenge the 100 trillion number, which is fine.
I am sorry that u have failed to grasp the subtleties of Matt Simmons when he goes into tongue-in-cheek mode. The present MegaProjects are being developed at a mere cost of $11-Billion per 1-mbd of capacity. Please do the arithmetic to replace the 10-mbd of capacity that Matt feels is vulnerable... _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4353 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:35 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
FreddyH wrote:
MD wrote:
You might want to first challenge the 100 trillion number, which is fine.
I am sorry that u have failed to grasp the subtleties of Matt Simmons when he goes into tongue-in-cheek mode. The present MegaProjects are being developed at a mere cost of $11-Billion per 1-mbd of capacity. Please do the arithmetic to replace the 10-mbd of capacity that Matt feels is vulnerable...
So the number should be 110 Billion?
That is still a far cry from 100 Trillion. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 6:22 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
roccman wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
MD wrote:
You might want to first challenge the 100 trillion number, which is fine.
I am sorry that u have failed to grasp the subtleties of Matt Simmons when he goes into tongue-in-cheek mode. The present MegaProjects are being developed at a mere cost of $11-Billion per 1-mbd of capacity. Please do the arithmetic to replace the 10-mbd of capacity that Matt feels is vulnerable...
So the number should be 110 Billion?
That is still a far cry from 100 Trillion.
To be perfectly frank, for another $25-Billion, we can add 1-mbd of refining capacity as well ... a subtotal of $300-Bil & whole shebang of $410-Billion ... for 10-mbd of brand new extraction/refining facilities. Factor that by 2 or 3 if y'all think we need 20 or 30-mbd by 2015 ... as per IEA WEO 2007. Grand total - $1.23 Trillion. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 676 Location: Illinois
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:24 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Novus wrote:
I have hated teachers long before I figured out how hate those other parasites. The teacher is the first parasite designed to weaken the host so advertisers, bankers, and economists can have easy to control puppet consumers. My public education was a 13 year battle to keep my sentience from being squashed. I have brains and intelligence in spite of teachers not because of them. I am with gampy on this one. I will cheer every time one of them loses a job. I will cheer a second time when they grow hungry and fall into want. I will cheer a third time when they are forced to dig ditches and shovel manure. I will glow with hope every time a student makes it past the brainwashing with their soul intact to see this society for what it is.
Ouch Why hate teachers? Most are trying their best with limited resources. And much of the subject matter has nothing to do with economics, bankers, etc. What about math, chemistry, literacy, all of these subjects have nothing to do with your hate of parasitical bankers and the like. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3422 Location: Oh really?
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 7:38 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
FreddyH wrote:
MD wrote:
You might want to first challenge the 100 trillion number, which is fine.
I am sorry that u have failed to grasp the subtleties of Matt Simmons when he goes into tongue-in-cheek mode. The present MegaProjects are being developed at a mere cost of $11-Billion per 1-mbd of capacity. Please do the arithmetic to replace the 10-mbd of capacity that Matt feels is vulnerable...
I'm sorry you've been unable to recognize the significance of changing production costs. That's typical of chartists though. You get distracted by trying to project what has-been into what will-be and you completely miss rate of change factors.
It's a new game chief, and you've completely missed the bus. Go back and start over. _________________ "It's not demand; It's not supply.
It's coming up with credit to buy"
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:08 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
MD wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
MD wrote:
You might want to first challenge the 100 trillion number, which is fine.
I am sorry that u have failed to grasp the subtleties of Matt Simmons when he goes into tongue-in-cheek mode. The present MegaProjects are being developed at a mere cost of $11-Billion per 1-mbd of capacity. Please do the arithmetic to replace the 10-mbd of capacity that Matt feels is vulnerable...
I'm sorry you've been unable to recognize the significance of changing production costs. That's typical of chartists though. You get distracted by trying to project what has-been into what will-be and you completely miss rate of change factors.
It's a new game chief, and you've completely missed the bus. Go back and start over.
Your ad hominems are typical of most of the neophytes here who hate to see facts get in the way of sexy thread. My estimates are based on reports in the last month from Rigzone, Energy Intelligence, Shell, UAE, Riglogix & WSJ. Matt & McPeaksters use tea leaves and anecdotals... _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:24 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
FreddyH wrote:
Quote:
I am sorry that u have failed to grasp the subtleties of Matt Simmons when he goes into tongue-in-cheek mode. The present MegaProjects are being developed at a mere cost of $11-Billion per 1-mbd of capacity. Please do the arithmetic to replace the 10-mbd of capacity that Matt feels is vulnerable...
I think you failed to grasp the fundamental bases of Simmon’s statement. He is not talking about just new projects, he is talking about the cost of replacing the existing infrastructure. Infrastructure that is now up to a century old, infrastructure that is on its last legs, and that has a replacement cost that in some instances is increasing by 30% per year. Instances like the cost increase of drilling a linear foot of oil well, or the increased cost of steel and concrete.
At these rates a $20 bolt will cost $275 in ten years. $50 to $100 trillion is quite possible if very much has to be replaced on a present day $13 trillion infrastructure. As a matter of fact, he may even be a little bit conservative in his estimates.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 10:27 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
shortonoil wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
Quote:
I am sorry that u have failed to grasp the subtleties of Matt Simmons when he goes into tongue-in-cheek mode. The present MegaProjects are being developed at a mere cost of $11-Billion per 1-mbd of capacity. Please do the arithmetic to replace the 10-mbd of capacity that Matt feels is vulnerable...
I think you failed to grasp the fundamental bases of Simmon’s statement. He is not talking about just new projects, he is talking about the cost of replacing the existing infrastructure. Infrastructure that is now up to a century old, infrastructure that is on its last legs, and that has a replacement cost that in some instances is increasing by 30% per year. Instances like the cost increase of drilling a linear foot of oil well, or the increased cost of steel and concrete.
At these rates a $20 bolt will cost $275 in ten years. $50 to $100 trillion is quite possible if very much has to be replaced on a present day $13 trillion infrastructure. As a matter of fact, he may even be a little bit conservative in his estimates.
Ten years? It is clear that u didn't even read in comments at OGJ. The $100-trillion is his estimate of spending needed in the next seven years to replace present infrastructure ... failing which flows will decline to maybe 69-mbd.
His throwing around numbers is dangerous 'cuz there is an element of the lunatic fringe that will believe them. In reality, the IEA & others estimate that all energy spending (nuclear, coal, renewables, etc etc) will cost a mere $20-trillion to 2030 ... not 2015. It is an absurd quote. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
May 13 (Bloomberg) -- At about 1 a.m. on Jan. 19, some of the heaviest rains in a century caused the Nogoa River in Queensland to burst its banks, sending 32 billion gallons of water into one of the largest coal mines in Australia.
``It was like watching Niagara Falls,'' said Peter Westerhuis, 46, general manager of operations for the mine's owner, Ensham Resources Pty. ``It filled the whole pit up in five hours.''
Quote:
In response, Asia's leading steelmakers, including Japan'S Nippon Steel Corp., China's Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., South Korea's Hyundai Steel Co. and Posco, Asia's third-biggest producer, all raised prices last month. Tokyo-based Nippon, the world's second-largest steel producer, agreed last month to pay $300 a ton, a threefold increase, for coal from the Bowen Basin.
Effects in Europe
The effects of Australia's flood also reached Europe. Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, said last month it would add a surcharge of $250 a ton on some fixed-price contract shipments.
The average price for hot rolled coil, a benchmark steel product, will rise by $311 to $904 a ton this year because of the increase in raw materials costs, according to Lennon's report. Hot-rolled sheet steel used to make consumer products has already more than doubled in price in the past five years.
Toyota Motor Corp., Japan's biggest automaker, raised prices for some models in North America this month because of the jump in steel costs. The retail price for the Prius hybrid car will increase by 1.8 percent to $21,500, and a Yaris sedan, by 1.6 percent to $12,425, Toyota said May 4.
Just one more pressure grinding through the economy. I guess no one has "shuttered in" spare capacity to just bring online.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 6:17 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
dorlomin wrote:
Just one more pressure grinding through the economy. I guess no one has "shuttered in" spare capacity to just bring online.
This comment assumes that one of the IOCs or NOCs would want to bring the price down if they could...
As long as the global economy keeps humming at 3.7% and demand destruction is matched somewhat by new demand entities and population, there is surely no need to reduce crude price.
Historically, OPEC for example increases quota to reduce price with the goal of reclaiming lost market share. But on the contrary, OPEC is up 1.7-mbd from last Spring. There is no incentive for any producer to increase supply this month. There are no shortages and nobody is losing revenues. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:23 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
FreddyH wrote:
dorlomin wrote:
Just one more pressure grinding through the economy. I guess no one has "shuttered in" spare capacity to just bring online.
This comment assumes that one of the IOCs or NOCs would want to bring the price down if they could...
As long as the global economy keeps humming at 3.7% and demand destruction is matched somewhat by new demand entities and population, there is surely no need to reduce crude price.
Historically, OPEC for example increases quota to reduce price with the goal of reclaiming lost market share. But on the contrary, OPEC is up 1.7-mbd from last Spring. There is no incentive for any producer to increase supply this month. There are no shortages and nobody is losing revenues.
It's all just a conspiracy eh Freddy? I had no idea IOCs and NOCs had pricing power for coal!
I'm at a loss to understand how in a global free market of fungible commodities how price isn't determined primarily by supply and demand. Sure prices are contractually locked in between party's in order to have stable basis for logistics and development, but that is where futures markets come in to settle the price between supplier and producer at a level of risk as is acceptable for each party. Nobody buys for more than they are prepared to pay or sells for less than they are prepared to accept.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4353 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:27 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Fed updates charts AFTER 5 MONTHS...
Hope you got your preps in order...the trigger for collapse has been pulled.
_________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3422 Location: Oh really?
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:43 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
FreddyH wrote:
MD wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
MD wrote:
You might want to first challenge the 100 trillion number, which is fine.
I am sorry that u have failed to grasp the subtleties of Matt Simmons when he goes into tongue-in-cheek mode. The present MegaProjects are being developed at a mere cost of $11-Billion per 1-mbd of capacity. Please do the arithmetic to replace the 10-mbd of capacity that Matt feels is vulnerable...
I'm sorry you've been unable to recognize the significance of changing production costs. That's typical of chartists though. You get distracted by trying to project what has-been into what will-be and you completely miss rate of change factors.
It's a new game chief, and you've completely missed the bus. Go back and start over.
Your ad hominems are typical of most of the neophytes here who hate to see facts get in the way of sexy thread. My estimates are based on reports in the last month from Rigzone, Energy Intelligence, Shell, UAE, Riglogix & WSJ. Matt & McPeaksters use tea leaves and anecdotals...
I prefer to look at all the facts, not hand picked in order to support a busted position.
Freddy...you are clueless and your contributions here are a waste of bandwidth. _________________ "It's not demand; It's not supply.
It's coming up with credit to buy"
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Why hate teachers? Most are trying their best with limited resources. And much of the subject matter has nothing to do with economics, bankers, etc. What about math, chemistry, literacy, all of these subjects have nothing to do with your hate of parasitical bankers and the like.
