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joeltrout
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 19, 2007
Posts: 1090
Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
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 Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:18 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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| Byron100 wrote: |
True demand destruction won't kick in until the cost of fuel is very, very expensive...might want to check into the concept of "giffen good" if you have the chance.
To believe that it'll be the year 2018 before the price of gas doubles or trebles again from current levels is highly optimistic, in my opinion. |
I have an economics degree so I have studied giffen goods somewhat though I would not consider myself knowledgeable with the concept.
I believe if we see gas above $5 then there will be huge demand destruction not only in the US but all over the world. With the trillions lost in home value, Americans are starting to realize they are not as rich as they were 12 months ago and with the cost of food and other products increasing people will have to make their money go further. Not necessarily directed to gas.
After the olympics in China, I predict their growth and fuel consumption will slow greatly and other developing countries will stop subsidizing gas prices therefore reducing demand quickly and stunting further growth.
High gas prices is a recent thing for most of us and we haven't seen what happens if those prices stay around for a while. $4 gas might have more of an affect than we realize right now.
joeltrout
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ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people. |
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Byron100
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Sep 08, 2005
Posts: 590
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:37 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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I won't argue your viewpoint, as there's really no way to determine the "tip point" of cost / demand destruction, but I just feel that it's a bit optimistic to believe demand will start dropping off at $4 and $5 a gallon. But yes, China could really change the equation if they stop their increasing demand for oil, but with so many billions of our dollars they're desperate to get rid of, I just don't see that happening anytime soon either.
The way I see it, gasoline is going to get very expensive in the near future. Adapt or deal...LOL.
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Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth! |
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misterno
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 07, 2007
Posts: 288
Location: Houston, TX
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:40 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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I don't think $5/gl is expensive. I lived in Turkey for many years. People pay $12/gl but make $1/hr. But nobody ever complains. Why? Because cars are much smaller, run on stick shift with diesel. and they don't use it all the time. Because they live in apartments like a hole in the wall.
So we will adjust accordingly, that's all. But I feel sorry for people living in the suburbs and SUV owners. Those houses and SUVs will go for a penny when the gas becomes more expensive. In Houston I am expecting to see huge skyscrapers to be made in the triangle of Galleria, downtown and medical center. That's my bet. |
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RedStateGreen
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 16, 2007
Posts: 1130
Location: Oklahoma City, USA
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:53 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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I'm going to soCal this summer to visit family one last time. I'm looking forward to seeing less traffic. 
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What, so I'm in no end game
Move my piece right off the board |
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joeltrout
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 19, 2007
Posts: 1090
Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:57 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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| RedStateGreen wrote: | | one last time. |
One last time before what???
joeltrout
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ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people. |
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dbruning
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 13, 2006
Posts: 272
Location: Vancouver Island
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misterno
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 07, 2007
Posts: 288
Location: Houston, TX
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| Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:48 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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wow that is a funny movie poster. I will watch it when I have time. It should be a rehearsal of what is to come
I see dead people on Westheimer, people shooting each other over a gallon of gas. Himmm, where would I be then, and what would I be doing?
LOL |
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truecougarblue
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 21, 2005
Posts: 471
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:12 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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Traffic is definitely lighter since spring break. The real test will be this fall once we fall back off daylight savings time.
My mileage has improved 10% over the last few months since I can now drive 65 the whole way to work. My breaking point long term is about $6-7/gal and at that point I'll most likely pull a "John Gault".
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Cougar
"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young |
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Jack
Dark Lord
Joined: Aug 11, 2004
Posts: 4970
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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| misterno wrote: | Are you guys crazy? If gas becomes $10/gl then ethanol will be like $7-8/gl and that means corn, wheat and every other food will cost us 5 times more.
Do you want people to starve? |
Yes, actually.
I've been looking forward to a mass dieoff of humankind, particularly those in the third world, for quite some time.
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Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!  |
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Byron100
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Sep 08, 2005
Posts: 590
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 6:20 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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| Jack wrote: | | misterno wrote: | Are you guys crazy? If gas becomes $10/gl then ethanol will be like $7-8/gl and that means corn, wheat and every other food will cost us 5 times more.
Do you want people to starve? |
Yes, actually.
I've been looking forward to a mass dieoff of humankind, particularly those in the third world, for quite some time.
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Yes, we know.   I know you've been waiting a long, long time for the Dieoff to start, with your stock of popcorn and butter stockpiled for the big show...hehe.
Me too, I'm tired of waiting for Mr Doom to make his move...let's get this show going already. I do think the real kicker will be a black swan event such as a coup by hard-core fundamentalists in KSA or a total blockage of shipments through the Gulf, etc. I'm very, very surprised that something like this hasn't happened yet. Methinks we're living on some borrowed time for sure...
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Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth! |
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whereagles
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 17, 2005
Posts: 576
Location: Portugal
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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It's hard to talk of a "tipping point" because at $4 stuff is happening already:
truckers going broke --> less stuff on shelves
airlines woes --> costlier tickets --> less air travel
overall company difficulties --> less producion --> recession
etc. While $4 may still look cheap (and it is, I pay ~$8 here), we may be tipping over already.
After it tips, it still takes a while to reach the floor |
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truecougarblue
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 21, 2005
Posts: 471
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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| whereagles wrote: | | I pay ~$8 here |
Yes, but whilst in Spain this spring paying $8/gal wasn't painful at all because our 9 passenger Fiat gutless wonder something-or-other got nearly 30mpg! |
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patience
Expert
Joined: Jan 04, 2008
Posts: 1405
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:09 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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My old S-10 pickup gets 29 MPG with boring regularity. Don't think I want one of those Fiats.
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Local fix-it guy.. |
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truecougarblue
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 21, 2005
Posts: 471
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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| ...and it would be quite the sight watching you haul around 8 people in it. (9 passenger van) |
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RSB
Tar Sands
Joined: May 13, 2008
Posts: 28
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 4:24 am Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH |
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| Jack wrote: | Yes, actually.
I've been looking forward to a mass dieoff of humankind, particularly those in the third world, for quite some time.
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You mean the ones who have the least blame for resource consumption? |
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