Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2662 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:47 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
roccman wrote:
Fed updates charts AFTER 5 MONTHS...
Hope you got your preps in order...the trigger for collapse has been pulled.
Rocc,
After some looking I can find the images posted above but I cannot find them in their original context on the St. Louis Fed web page. Could you post a link or send my one by pm when convienent? Thanks
Cur _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4262 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:52 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
wisconsin_cur wrote:
roccman wrote:
Fed updates charts AFTER 5 MONTHS...
Hope you got your preps in order...the trigger for collapse has been pulled.
Rocc,
After some looking I can find the images posted above but I cannot find them in their original context on the St. Louis Fed web page. Could you post a link or send my one by pm when convienent? Thanks
Cur
No problemo amigo...
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGNONBR _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Mortgage lending for house purchases fell to its lowest level for more than three decades in the first three months of the year, figures revealed.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said the number of loans for house purchases plunged to 142,000 between January and the end of March - the lowest on record since the first quarter of 1975.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:25 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Homes post largest YOY decline in price on record: -7.7%.
Quote:
Home prices continue sharp descent
Steep drops in West. Heartland prices stabilize. Bottom line: 7.7% decline in first quarter.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: May 13, 2008: 10:21 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Single-family home prices dropped 7.7% in the first quarter in the largest year-over-year decline since the National Association of Realtors began reporting prices in 1982.
The median sales price fell to $196,300, down 4.8% compared with the last three months of 2007.
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of NAR, attributed much of the record decline to liquidity problems dragging down high-priced markets.
"These are highly unusual results because there were very few jumbo loan originations in the latest quarter," he said. "So sales are much slower in high-cost areas."
Sun-Belt cities were among the biggest losers. In California, Sacramento prices plummeted 29.2% to $258,500 compared with last year and Riverside prices fell 27.7% to $287,100. Prices in Las Vegas fell 20.2% to $247,600 and those in Phoenix dropped 15.4% to $222,200.
...
10 months unsold inventory, 3,000,000 vacant homes listed for sale. Good times are here!
CNN _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:26 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Home Prices Post Steepest Drop in 26 Years
Quote:
Single-family home prices dropped 7.7% in the first quarter in the largest year-over-year decline since the National Association of Realtors began reporting prices in 1982.
The median sales price fell to $196,300, down 4.8% compared with the last three months of 2007.
[edit - EB beat me to it - heh] _________________ I have days--growing more frequent all the time--when I'm convinced the time is now upon us that some Big Events are about to occur. - Ron Paul
UK house prices could fall "at best" by 5-10% this year, according to secret Cabinet briefing notes accidentally revealed by a housing minister.
The notes - prepared by officials for Caroline Flint - also said: "We can't know how bad it will get."
The note adds that "we are playing our part to get the market moving with the Bank of England's £50 billion liquidity scheme"...
And on the same page:
BBC wrote:
Ms Flint also expressed concerns over house building - suggesting the government could struggle to hit its target of building three million new homes by 2020.
"House building is stalling," she warned.
"New starts are already down 10% compared to a year ago. House builders are predicting further falls.
"Having seen net additions reach roughly 200,000 in each of the last two years, the figure for 2008-9 is almost certain to be well down on that."
So we have a schizophrenic government policy which attempts to prop up existing real estate valuations by interfering in the credit markets with their business hand, while encouraging oversupply by supporting cheap new build with their social justice hand - in the apparent belief that the two goals can be achieved without conflict.
Incompetent buffoons.
Maybe in some fantasy land it is possible to prop up indefinitely the inflated housing stock of middle class swing voters while helping working class and public sector workers "get theirs" through targeted development, but in reality no market respects such partitioning!
This is what you get when you fill the policy advisor cadre with social activists.
In the meantime, we got a few more doses of reality.
Interestingly, official government figured valued the average house price at £217,344 in March. Given the average household income is around £33,000 and the average individual income is around £25,000, maybe we can know "how bad it will get" - a halving of house prices that pushes millions of households into negative equity.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
CNNMoney.com
Quote:
Home prices continue sharp descent
Tuesday May 13, 11:55 am ET
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Single-family home prices dropped 7.7% in the first quarter in the largest year-over-year decline since the National Association of Realtors began reporting prices in 1982.
The median sales price fell to $196,300, down 4.8% compared with the last three months of 2007.
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of NAR, attributed much of the record decline to liquidity problems dragging down high-priced markets.
"These are highly unusual results because there were very few jumbo loan originations in the latest quarter," he said. "So sales are much slower in high-cost areas."
Jumbo mortgages skew results
That sales slowdown changed the mix of houses sold.
In California, according to Yun, homes bought with jumbo mortgages - more than $417,000 - accounted for 40% of all sales before liquidity for these loans dried up during the summer of 2007. Since then only 10% of sales in California involved jumbo loans.
So much for the NAR’s claim that there will be a big upswing in spring sales. The Jumbo loan problem was talked about here a year ago, a few high end houses were keeping the median price up. It was also discussed that the end of Jumbo loans, loans over $417 thousand, would crash the prices. What is amazing is that now the realtors are acting like they are surprised. Next to PO, the housing debacle must be the biggest case of denial in on the planet!
MarkL said:
Quote:
Are home price drops accelerating?
I posted those figures here about a month ago. The decline rate is NOT LINEAR, it is geometric. Like 2,4,8,16,32............ BOOM!
Twilight said:
Quote:
BBC: Mortgage lending hits 33-year low, self-explanatory really, we are approaching the turning point into credit deflation.
This is not just happening in the US and the UK, it is spreading all over the entire world!
India
Quote:
Realty does reality check, prices fall 15-20% in Q1
NEW DELHI: If high prices have been holding you from buying your dream house all these years, here’s something to cheer about. In the first quarter of this year, there has been a 15-20% price correction in markets across the country, especially in the residential segment.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 12:58 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
sjn wrote:
Sure prices are contractually locked in between party's in order to have stable basis for logistics and development, but that is where futures markets come in to settle the price between supplier and producer at a level of risk as is acceptable for each party. Nobody buys for more than they are prepared to pay or sells for less than they are prepared to accept.
Albeit the futures contract venue has its place in a select commodities, for the most part it is merely the playground for speculators. WRT crude, very little hedging by stakeholders is conducted via this vehicle. Less than 5% of crude purchases by refineries is transacted via the futures marketplace. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
WASHINGTON — Turmoil in financial markets has eased somewhat, but the situation is still "far from normal," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.
The central bank has taken a number of unconventional steps _ especially since March, when the credit crisis intensified _ to help squeezed banks and big investment firms overcome problems and try to get credit flowing more freely again.
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