Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1985 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:36 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Scarier than you think
essex wrote:
OK, show me where they are currently using it and quoting it .
It's right there in figure 6.10; the middle graph shown various reconstructions, including the Mann, et al (MBH), reconstruction. go here, page 467. The National Academy of Science also Affirmed the Hockey Stick in 2006.
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1195 Location: was rwwff
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:48 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Scarier than you think
TheDude wrote:
Hey AgentR. Which equilibrium do you see us returning to? Glacial? Remember that sea level was higher during the Eemian.
No mixing. I said nothing about sea levels, one way or the other. Obviously with high enough temps you would end up with sea levels a couple hundred feet higher than today.
Back to temps; Mesozoic era conditions is my hunch. ie, much, much warmer.
Equilibrium doesn't imply "good"; at least not for us, seeing as how we are a species adapted for the cool, dry version of Earth. Time to buy stock in anti-fungal med makers before we all sprout mushrooms on our heads. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1195 Location: was rwwff
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:57 pm Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Scarier than you think
essex wrote:
OK, show me where they are currently using it and quoting it .
I don't know whether they are still quoting it or not; but it isn't the greatest of scientific illustrations. All natural phenomenon can be shown as a "hockey stick" if the drawer arbitrarily sel-x-ects the domain and scale of the graph. If one were to plot that same graph from, say, the time of first cellular life; and scale the temps at zero being zero Kelvin; that section would look as flat as a pancake.
So its not that it is wrong or right, but rather, it just doesn't tell you much more than, yep, temps are increasing. It could give the false notion that the change in temps has been explosive; which is bad, because the longer the increase continues, without an explosive RESULT, the more people wrongly doubt the underlying science and ecological problems. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1470 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:48 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Scarier than you think
Why do you let the Trolls control the conversation? Take essex for example. In not one of his posts has he provided a link or documentation in support of his crap. On the other hand, he's demanded it from you at every opportunity, adding LOL at the end of his posts just to irritate you.
Lovelock has been dispensing predictions from his one-man laboratory in an old mill in Cornwall since the mid-1960s, the consistent accuracy of which have earned him a reputation as one of Britain's most respected - if maverick - independent scientists. Working alone since the age of 40, he invented a device that detected CFCs, which helped detect the growing hole in the ozone layer, and introduced the Gaia hypothesis, a revolutionary theory that the Earth is a self-regulating super-organism. Initially ridiculed by many scientists as new age nonsense, today that theory forms the basis of almost all climate science.
Most of the things we have been told to do might make us feel better, but they won't make any difference. Global warming has passed the tipping point, and catastrophe is unstoppable.
"It's just too late for it," he says. "Perhaps if we'd gone along routes like that in 1967, it might have helped. But we don't have time. All these standard green things, like sustainable development, I think these are just words that mean nothing. I get an awful lot of people coming to me saying you can't say that, because it gives us nothing to do. I say on the contrary, it gives us an immense amount to do. Just not the kinds of things you want to do."
Lovelock believes global warming is now irreversible, and that nothing can prevent large parts of the planet becoming too hot to inhabit, or sinking underwater, resulting in mass migration, famine and epidemics.
Nuclear power, he argues, can solve our energy problem - the bigger challenge will be food. "Maybe they'll synthesise food. I don't know. Synthesising food is not some mad visionary idea; you can buy it in Tesco's, in the form of Quorn. It's not that good, but people buy it. You can live on it." But he fears we won't invent the necessary technologies in time, and expects "about 80%" of the world's population to be wiped out by 2100. Prophets have been foretelling Armageddon since time began, he says. "But this is the real thing."
Interviewers often remark upon the discrepancy between Lovelock's predictions of doom, and his good humour. "Well I'm cheerful!" he says, smiling. "I'm an optimist. It's going to happen."
"There have been seven disasters since humans came on the earth, very similar to the one that's just about to happen. I think these events keep separating the wheat from the chaff. And eventually we'll have a human on the planet that really does understand it and can live with it properly. That's the source of my optimism."
What would Lovelock do now, I ask, if he were me? He smiles and says: "Enjoy life while you can.
"The seawater proved to be "highly oversaturated with solute methane," reports Shakhova. In the air over the sea, greenhouse-gas content was measured in some places at five times normal values. "In helicopter flights over the delta of the Lena River, higher methane concentrations have been measured at altitudes as high as 1,800 meters," she says."
It's beginning now. This will not be a gradual trend. This will be an event, a giant methane burp, so to speak.
AWI's results show that permafrost in the flat shelf is perilously close to thawing. Three to 12 kilometers from the coast, the temperature of sea sediment was -1 to -1.5 degrees Celsius, just below freezing.
Another 1-1.5 degrees and the shelf will look like a shook up soda can. An ice-free summer in the Arctic will do it.
As you're dying in temperatures too high for humans to endure, know that essex is too, and LOL just one more time.
Share the End - Carly Simon _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
Joined: Jul 12, 2004 Posts: 169 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 4:26 am Post subject: Re: Runaway Global Warming - Scarier than you think
Well cid, if you bother to trawl my posts you'll find plenty of links I've provided for you hysterical trolls. Hey, don't wait to fry , just take your cultists to the mountain top and jump off. The climate has always changed and sometimes abruptly, a fact of life - ask anyone who had to endure the last Northern Hemisphere winter.
Man's impact ? Minor at best. Warming fanaticism has arisen as conventional religion has declined - which is worse some future genuine peak oil historian will have to decide.
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