How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 1021 Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:18 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH
Byron100 wrote:
True demand destruction won't kick in until the cost of fuel is very, very expensive...might want to check into the concept of "giffen good" if you have the chance.
To believe that it'll be the year 2018 before the price of gas doubles or trebles again from current levels is highly optimistic, in my opinion.
I have an economics degree so I have studied giffen goods somewhat though I would not consider myself knowledgeable with the concept.
I believe if we see gas above $5 then there will be huge demand destruction not only in the US but all over the world. With the trillions lost in home value, Americans are starting to realize they are not as rich as they were 12 months ago and with the cost of food and other products increasing people will have to make their money go further. Not necessarily directed to gas.
After the olympics in China, I predict their growth and fuel consumption will slow greatly and other developing countries will stop subsidizing gas prices therefore reducing demand quickly and stunting further growth.
High gas prices is a recent thing for most of us and we haven't seen what happens if those prices stay around for a while. $4 gas might have more of an affect than we realize right now.
joeltrout _________________ ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people.
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 569 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:37 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH
I won't argue your viewpoint, as there's really no way to determine the "tip point" of cost / demand destruction, but I just feel that it's a bit optimistic to believe demand will start dropping off at $4 and $5 a gallon. But yes, China could really change the equation if they stop their increasing demand for oil, but with so many billions of our dollars they're desperate to get rid of, I just don't see that happening anytime soon either.
The way I see it, gasoline is going to get very expensive in the near future. Adapt or deal...LOL. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
Joined: Mar 07, 2007 Posts: 288 Location: Houston, TX
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 4:40 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH
I don't think $5/gl is expensive. I lived in Turkey for many years. People pay $12/gl but make $1/hr. But nobody ever complains. Why? Because cars are much smaller, run on stick shift with diesel. and they don't use it all the time. Because they live in apartments like a hole in the wall.
So we will adjust accordingly, that's all. But I feel sorry for people living in the suburbs and SUV owners. Those houses and SUVs will go for a penny when the gas becomes more expensive. In Houston I am expecting to see huge skyscrapers to be made in the triangle of Galleria, downtown and medical center. That's my bet.
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1073 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:53 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH
I'm going to soCal this summer to visit family one last time. I'm looking forward to seeing less traffic. _________________ What, so I'm in no end game
Move my piece right off the board
Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 1021 Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 5:57 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH
RedStateGreen wrote:
one last time.
One last time before what???
joeltrout _________________ ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 5:12 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH
Traffic is definitely lighter since spring break. The real test will be this fall once we fall back off daylight savings time.
My mileage has improved 10% over the last few months since I can now drive 65 the whole way to work. My breaking point long term is about $6-7/gal and at that point I'll most likely pull a "John Gault". _________________ Cougar
"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 569 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 6:20 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH
Jack wrote:
misterno wrote:
Are you guys crazy? If gas becomes $10/gl then ethanol will be like $7-8/gl and that means corn, wheat and every other food will cost us 5 times more.
Do you want people to starve?
Yes, actually.
I've been looking forward to a mass dieoff of humankind, particularly those in the third world, for quite some time.
Yes, we know. I know you've been waiting a long, long time for the Dieoff to start, with your stock of popcorn and butter stockpiled for the big show...hehe.
Me too, I'm tired of waiting for Mr Doom to make his move...let's get this show going already. I do think the real kicker will be a black swan event such as a coup by hard-core fundamentalists in KSA or a total blockage of shipments through the Gulf, etc. I'm very, very surprised that something like this hasn't happened yet. Methinks we're living on some borrowed time for sure... _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
Joined: Aug 17, 2005 Posts: 574 Location: Portugal
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH
It's hard to talk of a "tipping point" because at $4 stuff is happening already:
truckers going broke --> less stuff on shelves
airlines woes --> costlier tickets --> less air travel
overall company difficulties --> less producion --> recession
etc. While $4 may still look cheap (and it is, I pay ~$8 here), we may be tipping over already.
After it tips, it still takes a while to reach the floor
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: TRAFFIC IN LOS ANGELES IS GETTING BETTER AND YOU KNOW WH
whereagles wrote:
I pay ~$8 here
Yes, but whilst in Spain this spring paying $8/gal wasn't painful at all because our 9 passenger Fiat gutless wonder something-or-other got nearly 30mpg!
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I know you've been waiting a long, long time for the Dieoff to start, with your stock of popcorn and butter stockpiled for the big show...hehe.
