Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 3:44 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
OilFinder2 wrote:
cube wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
Is that not "intensive?"
NO
intensive does not equal rice terraces.
intensive == doing anything that is environmentally unsustainable like what we're doing right now.
"modern" agriculture is environmentally unsustainable.
So, mass-scale re-shaping and engineering of these hillsides can be sustained for 2000 years, but plowing furrows in Iowan or Brazilian soils and adding some fertilizer can't. That is almost as bizarre as patience's claim above that lower yields are better.
YOU already know the answer to that question because I said it already.
You're just being a troll, you think I can't see through you?
YOU know that a smaller human population 2000 years ago would be less of a strain on soil fertility as opposed to 6.6 Billion today.
Emergency food stocks maintained by countries around the world are at their lowest levels in 30 years, contributing to the surge in global food prices, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) said on Thursday.
The situation has put the WFP and relief organizations in a difficult situation to meet the needs of the world's most vulnerable populations, said WFP director Josette Sheeran from her Rome-based headquarters.
WFP, which already sought donations of $4.3 billion at the start of the year - before the latest crisis - had been able to raise only $1 billion to date. It has asked donors to make their full annual contributions at the beginning of the year.
Veronica Banks, who lives outside St. Louis, said she suspects neighborhood corner stores are charging more for many items under the assumption customers won't pay the bus fare to go bargain hunting.
Tom Seluzicki, a certified public accountant in Washington, said he assumes some food prices are artificially inflated to "compensate for lost margins on other products."
Without a doubt, basic economic principles account for most of the increase in the wholesale cost of food worldwide. Bad weather has hurt crops. Economic prosperity has driven up demand in developing countries. And soaring fuel prices have raised transportation costs. Mix in investors betting on continued food-price inflation and you have a recipe for a run-up.
And now we seem to have the ongoing effects of food inflation. Sellers are raising prices to cover loss margins and some probably are raising prices, thinking that people are less likely to bargin shop and more likely to accept higher prices.
UN alert: One-fourth of world's wheat at risk from new fungus
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned in March that Iran had detected a new highly pathogenic strain of wheat stem rust called Ug99.
The fungal disease could spread to other wheat producing states in the Near East and western Asia that provide one-quarter of the world’s wheat.
The FAO warned stated east of Iran — Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan to be on high alert.
Scientists and international organizations focused on controlling wheat stem rust have said 90 percent of world wheat lines are susceptible to Ug99. The situation is particularly critical in light of the existing worldwide wheat shortage.
Let them eat almonds, right OF2?
----------------------
Let me just give a hat tip to Cid_Yama (whatever you think of him) who was, I believe, on this stem rust story first and hardest here at PO.com...
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6345 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 1:13 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
OilFinder2 wrote:
California farmers produce about 80 percent of the world's almonds. The nut is the state's leading agricultural export, with sales abroad of the 2006 harvest reaching nearly $1.9 billion.
One thing I saw growing up in the Central Valley of CA was not just increasing specialization by each operator but the change to increasing specialization regionally.
When I was young, there was a huge variety of fruit and vegetables to supply the many canneries and there were poultry, dairy and beef operations all cheek by jowl.
Fast, cheap, refrigerated transport from virtually anywhere in the world and just about year-round along with hybrids designed to ship and not necessarily eat, put an end to most of the canneries except tomatoes. The egg and poultry operations moved to the foothills where land was cheap and they could spread out and build huge houses. Small milk bottlers and creameries and cheese factories merged into ever larger and distant plants.
Gradually each soil type and climate range became more specialized to the crop most suitable to the area. In the area where I grew up, where once you could once see virtually any food you might want growing in a one or 2 mile range, now is almost totally almonds. I think CA, with that county at the center grows more almonds than any other in the world.
I know it is popular to bad mouth Monsanto, ADM and all, but most every part of that particular production chain; from sprayers to shakers to pick-up machines and hullers to haulers to packers are owned by little guys. Mostly all family businesses and each one invested in and dependent on one crop that is shipped all over the world.
Also in my old home town is the largest winery in the world, up the road ten miles, the headquarters of the biggest egg producer west of the Rockies and 20 miles the other way the largest cheese plant under one roof in the US - they make cheese in 55 gallon drums to put in your mac and cheese and on your Taco Bell taco.
So it isn't just mono culture at the farm level that seems the biggest hurdle for change in my mind, it is mono culture at the regional level in those areas with huge investments in infrastructure all geared to one specialty crop with a huge marketing range - worldwide in some cases and few people around who know anything different.
Joined: Mar 28, 2005 Posts: 399 Location: Northern California, USA
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:03 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
FreakOil wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
So, mass-scale re-shaping and engineering of these hillsides can be sustained for 2000 years, but plowing furrows in Iowan or Brazilian soils and adding some fertilizer can't. That is almost as bizarre as patience's claim above that lower yields are better.
Yes, these terraces can be sustained for thousands more years. They were built by human labor without any fossil fuel inputs, so they can be maintained as long as there are humans willing to do the work.
Fertilizer cannot be added to soil in Brazil, Iowa or any other place indefinitely because it is a fossil fuel derivative. When the fossil fuels run out, so does the fertilizer. You can make fertilizer from atmospheric nitrogen, but it is extremely energy intensive, and energy is getting harder and harder to come by thanks to fossil fuel depletion.
There are actually a couple of minerals that must be in the soil for plants to grow well.
carbon- Comes from composted high biomass crops like sorghum, corn, oats
nitrogen - extracted from the air into the soil by fava and other beans
Phosphorus and Potassium can come from crushed granite and phosphate rock. Those are harder to replace.
The ultimate in sustainability is to use human manure, which has been used in China for centuries, to fertilize crops but that has to be handled carefully and has to be specially cured over a long period of time in order to avoid spreading disease.
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:42 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
FreakOil wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
So, mass-scale re-shaping and engineering of these hillsides can be sustained for 2000 years, but plowing furrows in Iowan or Brazilian soils and adding some fertilizer can't. That is almost as bizarre as patience's claim above that lower yields are better.
Yes, these terraces can be sustained for thousands more years. They were built by human labor without any fossil fuel inputs, so they can be maintained as long as there are humans willing to do the work.
Fertilizer cannot be added to soil in Brazil, Iowa or any other place indefinitely because it is a fossil fuel derivative. When the fossil fuels run out, so does the fertilizer. You can make fertilizer from atmospheric nitrogen, but it is extremely energy intensive, and energy is getting harder and harder to come by thanks to fossil fuel depletion.
To get to the root of the problem, you need to understand linear vs. cyclical systems. Fertilizers are part of a linear agricultural system. Mining companies extract fossil fuels, industry transforms a part of the fossil fuels into fertilizers, transport companies bring the fertilizers to the farms, the farmers put the fertilizers on the fields, crops grow, farmers harvest the crops, people eat the crops. There are a few more steps in the process in same cases, but you get the idea. There's a definite beginning and a definite end to the process. Fossil fuel extraction is the beginning, and a tasty meal is the end.
[...]
You do not need fossil fuels to produce fertilizer. You also do not need fossil fuels to transport the food - in fact, you don't "need" fossil fuels for any of the steps you just described. Even if you were right about the oncoming depletion of fossil fuels (which, of course, you aren't), your argument would be moot because you're claiming that something is necessary for modern agriculture which isn't.
FreakOil wrote:
A cyclical system, on the other hand, has no beginning or end. For simplicity's sake, I'll use traditional Chinese night soil agriculture as an example. The farmer harvests the food, the farmer eats the food, the farmer poops the food, the farmer puts the poop back on the fields, the food grows back. The whole process forms a nice cycle that can go on for thousands of years, if not more, without any of the inputs common to the linear system.
If any of the steps in the process - extraction, transport, production, etc. - are interrupted, the entire system collapses. That could happen for a number of reasons such as fuel shortages, war, social instability or natural disasters. Furthermore, the process is dependent on a fragile supply chain that extends thousands of miles around the globe and is susceptible to disruption at any geographic point that the supply chain runs through.
That was true of the ancient Chinese system as well. War, social instability, natural disasters, disease (human and animal) all frequently took their toll on human agriculture back then. If anything, I'd say we are less susceptible to such disturbances now than we were back then. Back then, since most food was grown locally, if some disaster struck locally, the local populace was screwed. These days, if drought strikes the wheat crop in India, they can always import some wheat from the US or Canada or Australia or Argentina or Russia or . . .
FreakOil wrote:
However, there are outside inputs to any local cyclical system that make it part and parcel of the entire biosphere. For example, winds blowing over the Earth carry dust particles into the atmosphere; those particles, which contain vital nutrients, are then deposited on soil thousands of miles away, thus enriching that soil. Water that evaporates from oceans thousands of miles away is carried by the winds and deposited on the soil, allowing the crops to grow.
So what? This is just as true now as it was 2000 years ago.
FreakOil wrote:
Those are just a few examples of a local cyclical systems' relation to the biosphere and how they will be affected by global warming. Global warming will alter those wind patterns and lay waste to cyclical agriculture systems that have served humanity for thousands of years.
Increasing temperatures will likely lead to increased precipitation, not less. There will be some areas negatively affected by increased temperatures, no doubt, but other areas will benefit. You will simply see a shifting around of global agricultural patterns toward the poles. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2018 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:08 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
OF,
Its not just the weather that affects agricultural production, bc as with oil and gas, politics plays a big role. Look at most of Africa which is very fertile, but bc of poverty, war, and lack of finances, fails to feed its own. Look at the food riots in Haiti over rice. Did you know Haiti once produced enough rice to feed itself, but doesn't anymore due to a destitute gov't and population that can't afford to plant, fertilize and grow?
I always laugh at Americans bc they believe they are immune from the problems that plague the 3rd world, while not recognizing that the road they are on takes them straight to it. That road the Americans travel is lined with the unsutainable budget and trade deficits, broken entitlement programs, the biggest real estate downturn since the Great Depression, the Fed Gov't planning on bank failures, no new coal plants being built bc no credit available, and on and on. That road is taking a bunch of ignorant Americans straight to the third world. America's fiscal crisis will give new meaning to the words "African American" - meaning, we have descended down to our own heart of darkness, welcoming us to the third world.
Last edited by seahorse on Tue May 13, 2008 10:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:08 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
cube wrote:
YOU already know the answer to that question because I said it already.
You're just being a troll, you think I can't see through you?
YOU know that a smaller human population 2000 years ago would be less of a strain on soil fertility as opposed to 6.6 Billion today.
No, it only means that less land would be cultivated.
Here are wheat yields in 3 nations with rapidly-growing populations. Tell me - where is the depleted soil fertility due to increased population? Sure can't see it anywhere on this chart!
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6345 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:10 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
So I take it your point is not that there is not a spreading food crisis but that everything will work out because we will just move our farms toward the poles? _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:15 pm Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
seahorse wrote:
OF,
Its not just the weather that affects agricultural production, bc as with oil and gas, politics plays a big role. Look at most of Africa which is very fertile, but bc of poverty, war, and lack of finances, fails to feed its own. Look at the food riots in Haiti over rice. Did you know Haiti once produced enough rice to feed itself, but doesn't anymore due to a destitute gov't and population that can't afford to plant, fertilize and grow?
I always laugh at Americans bc they believe they are immune from the problems that plague the 3rd world, while not realizing that the road they are on, with the unsutainable budget and trade deficits, broken entitlement programs, the biggest real estate downturn since the Great Depression, the Fed Gov't planning on bank failures, no new coal plants being built bc no credit available, and on and on, is taking Americans straight to the third world. American's fiscal crisis will give new meaning to the words "African American" - meaning, we have descended down to our own heart of darkness, welcoming us to the third world.
I agree with you about the politics. Yes, of course politics can affect production of not just food but other things as well. But trying to stay reasonably on topic, I don't see how most of the things you mentioned will affect American agriculture. Indeed, the US agricultural sector is booming right now. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
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