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foo
Tar Sands
Joined: Aug 16, 2004
Posts: 21
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 Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 9:57 pm Post subject: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the US |
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According to this chart, gasoline in the US should hit at least $4.75 per gallon national average this summer in the US. I am predicting this because it appears that the price history of gasoline always follows oil fairly closely according to this chart. Gasoline prices will have to start rising quickly, and soon (red line in chart catching up to the blue line). Looks like it is inevitable. Not sure what has been keeping the gasoline prices down. Profit margins must be razor thin right now for the gas station owners and gasoline refineries. But if demand destruction kicks in and people start driving less, then maybe it won't be this high. But I have a feeling that most Americans will cut out just about everything else and continue driving. I think people are going to be in for a big shock when they fill up, especially for SUV and pickup truck drivers.
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Pops
Moderator
Joined: Apr 03, 2004
Posts: 6375
Location: My Grandkids' Farm
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:15 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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I don't know Drifter, you might be right, it would sure hurt!
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misterno
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 07, 2007
Posts: 288
Location: Houston, TX
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:19 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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I don't know where you get $4.75 but I don't think it can surpass $4.00/gl (excluding California) this summer
For that to happen, refineries should increase their margin I mean the crack spread should be higher and oil has to be close to $150. I just can't think it is happenning in 3-4 months. You need a hurricane or some Iranian missile flying over a US ship. (God forbid) |
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MD
Community Manager
Joined: May 02, 2005
Posts: 3277
Location: at the convention
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:21 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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| misterno wrote: | I don't know where you get $4.75 but I don't think it can surpass $4.00/gl (excluding California) this summer
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I paid $4.05 today, in Ohio
_________________
"Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
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md@peakoil.com |
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max_in_wa
Tar Sands
Joined: Feb 27, 2008
Posts: 57
Location: Washington State (US)
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:24 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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I drive about 150 miles per week. There isn't much I can do to cut my mileage back. I've been riding my motorcycle a lot -- probably 80% cycle/20% car -- but my bike is neat old airhead BMW from 1978. It looks cool but it only gets about 6 mpg more than my car in city driving. I'm considering a scooter because I just don't need 800cc to cruise around at 25 and 35 mph. If I throw in some bicycle riding, I could shave off 20-30 miles per week.
I suspect that most people are in similar boat in terms of miles driven. Perhaps they can cut back 5 or 10% by combining trips, but their commute is going to be pretty much unchangeable. Add in the good chance that they're upside down on a truck/SUV loan, and high prices probably won't have a huge demand destructive capability -- unless people start losing their jobs en masse. |
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roccman
Fusion
Joined: Apr 27, 2007
Posts: 4262
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:24 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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No Iran attack (unlikely) gas over $5.00
Attack on Iran ...you will be lucky to get it at any price.
Attack plus a GOM Hurricane...kiss your ass goodbye.
This time next year...kiss your ass good bye.
_________________
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
We are going back to roccland - me |
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foo
Tar Sands
Joined: Aug 16, 2004
Posts: 21
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:25 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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| misterno wrote: | I don't know where you get $4.75 but I don't think it can surpass $4.00/gl (excluding California) this summer
For that to happen, refineries should increase their margin I mean the crack spread should be higher and oil has to be close to $150. I just can't think it is happenning in 3-4 months. You need a hurricane or some Iranian missile flying over a US ship. (God forbid) |
Can't surpass $4? Why? Look at the price of oil.
My reasoning is that the margin between gasoline prices and oil prices has been widening. In the past they have always followed each other fairly closely. Someone must be losing money right now to keep gasoline prices so low in the US. My guess is that this cannot continue for much longer, and thus the price of gasoline will soon adjust higher in relation to oil prices- meaning US gasoline prices hitting at least $4.75 per gallon national average this summer. |
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max_in_wa
Tar Sands
Joined: Feb 27, 2008
Posts: 57
Location: Washington State (US)
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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| misterno wrote: | I don't know where you get $4.75 but I don't think it can surpass $4.00/gl (excluding California) this summer
For that to happen, refineries should increase their margin I mean the crack spread should be higher and oil has to be close to $150. I just can't think it is happenning in 3-4 months. You need a hurricane or some Iranian missile flying over a US ship. (God forbid) |
In my corner of the country we're already at $3.90 - $4.10 (reg - super). As far as refinery numbers go, refineries are already being squeezed because their input costs are too high compared to what they can sell their products for. Why would a refiner run their equipment ragged to barely squeeze by? They won't (unless they're run by complete incompetents), supply of refined products will fall, and scarcity will result in higher prices.
Anyway, at least for me in Washington State, I would not be surprised if fuel costs more than $4.75 for me this summer even if oil just stayed at the current price level. Seriously, just look at food prices -- it took awhile but the increases in input costs are really starting to show up up now. I'd bet gasoline and other refined liquids show an upward trend. |
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Pretorian
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 08, 2006
Posts: 1239
Location: Somewhere there
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:56 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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| roccman wrote: |
This time next year...kiss your ass good bye. |
got any money for the bet? |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3595
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 4:42 am Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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| Quote: | | Profit margins must be razor thin right now for the gas station owners and gasoline refineries. |
| Quote: | | the margin between gasoline prices and oil prices has been widening |
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We follow this carefully, as you know. Within the last week the refining margins have improved a lot, due mainly to heating oil/diesel finally catching up with the crude oil price.
Gasoline has lagged behind, though. Normally during the summer, the gasoline price exceeds the distillate price, by some substantial margin, on the order or 30-50 cents. Right now, it's 50 cents cheaper, an all time record.
So if you figure that the gas prices have 50 cents to go from here (and assuming heating oil backs off a little for summer) you could pretty easily see $3.70 futures prices and $4.35 as the nationwide average for unleaded within a few weeks.
The difference between the futures price and the nationwide retail average is normally about 65 cents, so at this point the average pump price "should" be about $3.85, but it is about 10 cents lower at the moment, because the price increases have not made it through the system yet.
What is remarkable about the current situation is that there is no apparent shortage of anything. The crude oil and gasoline inventories are within normal limits. There are no gas lines, rationing, or any other availability issues to speak of. We at PO.com have been tracking this for awhile too.
Now, if something happened so that there actually were shortages, then no telling what would happen. |
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mos6507
Fusion
Joined: Aug 03, 2007
Posts: 3134
Location: Boston Suburbs
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:04 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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| The Mobil stations in Culver City, CA have yet to cross the $4 threshold after holding at $3.99 for a few weeks. In fact they went back down to $3.97. I'm starting to think that part of the runup was the switchover to summer gas blends and that we may have hit a price plataeu. Not sure how long it will hold, though. |
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shortonoil
Fission
Joined: Dec 02, 2004
Posts: 2531
Location: VA USA
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:29 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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pupp55 said:
| Quote: | | What is remarkable about the current situation is that there is no apparent shortage of anything. The crude oil and gasoline inventories are within normal limits. There are no gas lines, rationing, or any other availability issues to speak of. We at PO.com have been tracking this for awhile too. |
As we have been discussing for the last year, the lack of shortages is undoubtedly the result of high imports levels. Why they have been sustainable for so long in the face of very high crude prices is the question for which we seem to not have an answer. $4.75 gas, however, at present crack spreads, which probably are not sustainable, could happen if crude goes to $170. What that would do to imports is also not known, but it could constrain foreign supplies of gasoline, resulting in very high prices! |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3595
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:17 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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| Quote: | | no apparent shortage of anything |
We should qualify this I guess by saying that in Africa and parts of Asia, there are most certainly shortages of fuel. In fact, some of those nations in Africa are now in a state of more or less permanently having to do without fuel supplies.
The markets here have thus far kept the shortages out of North America, however temporarily./ |
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misterno
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 07, 2007
Posts: 288
Location: Houston, TX
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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| pup55 wrote: | | Quote: | | no apparent shortage of anything |
We should qualify this I guess by saying that in Africa and parts of Asia, there are most certainly shortages of fuel. In fact, some of those nations in Africa are now in a state of more or less permanently having to do without fuel supplies.
The markets here have thus far kept the shortages out of North America, however temporarily./ |
I think in some countries gas and oil can only be imported by state entities. Maybe that's why they have shortages.
My 2 barrels |
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roccman
Fusion
Joined: Apr 27, 2007
Posts: 4262
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: Re: My prediction- $4.75 gallon gasoline this summer in the |
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| Pretorian wrote: | | roccman wrote: |
This time next year...kiss your ass good bye. |
got any money for the bet? |
Lot o mumbo jumbo round here lately 'bout affluence and country fried steaks.
When gas goes over $8.00 (just and arbitrary number I pulled out of my ass) - those who do not eat country fried steak are toast...
So Pretorian - do you eat country fried steak or are you poor. If you are poor I have $50.00 that says your ass is toast when gas goes over $8. And I will gladly send you that jack - so that you can buy yourself a country fried steak.
You in?
_________________
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
We are going back to roccland - me |
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