Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 4:42 pm Post subject: Re: Is Iran Playing the Oil Card? If so, why?
roccman wrote:
mmasters wrote:
Iran is a puppet controlled by forces that control Russia. The oil card is about global domination.
China gets Iran
Russia gets Caspian
US/UK get Iraq
The world has already been divied up,
I wonder if the US would want Iraq without Iran? Would leaving Iran be too destabalising? I have been pondering the whole Iraq invasion and the driving up of food prices through ethanol (amongst other causes). It seems so irrational. Is this just fueled by short sightedness, or does causing a food crisis destabalise those nations that lack significant food production means (eg, most Middle Eastern nations), making them putty in the hands of food exporting powerhouses such as the US, Europe and other western nations such as Canada and Australia? Is this an attempt by the west to regain power and control? Would be interested to hear thoughts on this.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1921 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: Is Iran Playing the Oil Card? If so, why?
I don't trust the elites in Washington, Tehran, Beijing, Moscow or Europe. I often get the feeling that I'm watching a game of surreal subterfuge for my benefit. Saddam broke ranks with this crowd and did not play by the rules (got too big for his boots in other words) which I suspect is why he got pounded.
Those rules....that global commerce will ultimately work for the benefit of a cloistered few whilst the rest of us get the pickings. I for one do not expect an invasion of Iran ever.
Whilst I do not believe in these Zionist conspiracy theories, I suspect that there is a culture of compliance within the global elites to the degree that much of what they put out is nothing more than sand and fog in their global game of securing places at the table of powerful players. Myanmar is proving to be less than co-operative at the moment as is N Korea but they will be brought to heel in due course and be made to see the error of their ways. Ahmadinejad has too much of a smug look on his face...I suspect that boy knows whats at stake. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 4:15 am Post subject: Big buildup of surplus oil in Iran
Quote:
May 14 (Reuters) - Money, not politics, is behind Iran's review
of oil output levels, say refiners that buy crude from OPEC's second
biggest producer.
U.S. crude jumped to a record near $127 a barrel on Tuesday after
Iran's President Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying Tehran was studying
a plan to cut output.
Some traders leapt to the conclusion Ahmadinejad was pursuing his
dispute with the United States, which has taken issue with the
country's nuclear programme.
But Iranian oil ministry officials and customers said Iran is only
reviewing its output because stocks have swollen.
[...]
FLOATING STORAGE
Iran has leased a fleet of giant crude vessels to sit offshore holding
the crude it has yet to sell. The ships can hold more than 30 million
barrels of crude, more than a week of Iran's oil output. Shipping
sources say they are nearly full.
The speed of the build up has puzzled oil traders. Iran has trimmed
oil exports by about 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) since early April
to match a fall in international demand as refiners undertake seasonal
work.
The adjustment would only account for around 8 million barrels of the
stored crude, which shipping and trading sources said has built up
over the past six weeks.
Much of the crude on the tankers is from the Soroush and Nowrouz
fields, which produce around 190,000 bpd.
Iran faced a similar situation in July 2006, when it held around 20
million barrels in tankers. That crude was sold at a steep discount,
mainly to India and Royal Dutch Shell.
Iran would need to cut another $6-$10 a barrel from its Soroush price
to encourage sales, one refiner said. The official Soroush price for
June is already a deep discount of $20.25 to the North Sea benchmark,
he added.
OPEC has rebuffed repeated calls from consuming nations for more crude
to try to lower the high price, arguing that oil markets were well
supplied.
The crude in storage off Iran to an extent backs OPEC's claims, but it
is the wrong kind of oil.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2196 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: Big buildup of surplus oil in Iran
JD,
I also started a thread on this. I'm interested in why Iran would hold oil in tankers. Is it just to drive up the price of oil? The best arguments I've heard against that theory are: (1) it would be cheaper simply not to pump it out of the ground. Ground storage is cheaper than tanker storage; (2) the belief that the stuff they are storing is a heavier grade crude that doesn't have a good market and thus is not affecting the light sweet spot price. What are your thoughts?
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 8:04 am Post subject: Re: Big buildup of surplus oil in Iran
seahorse wrote:
JD,
I also started a thread on this. I'm interested in why Iran would hold oil in tankers. Is it just to drive up the price of oil? The best arguments I've heard against that theory are: (1) it would be cheaper simply not to pump it out of the ground. Ground storage is cheaper than tanker storage; (2) the belief that the stuff they are storing is a heavier grade crude that doesn't have a good market and thus is not affecting the light sweet spot price. What are your thoughts?
If those tankers are flying foreign flags, is that oil "safe" or "safer" from military action? I'm not saying military action is coming but if the Iranian gov't is feeling a little paranoid (or justifiably threatened I don't care which) would they empty their in ground storage so that it does not get blown up? _________________ "Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens" -Friedrich von Schiller
Joined: Oct 11, 2005 Posts: 409 Location: Arizona, USA
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 9:27 am Post subject: Re: Is Iran Playing the Oil Card? If so, why?
I wonder what is the global refining capacity for more sour and heavy crude grades as compared to its oil field production of those grades.
There's been some talk for a while about building more heavy crude refineries around the world, so perhaps there is some reason behind the idea that certain countries in the Middle East have a surplus, but a surplus of oil that no one wants or can handle. It would then make sensible Iran's stockpiling and intended production cut.
Joined: Feb 27, 2008 Posts: 57 Location: Washington State (US)
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 10:54 am Post subject: Re: Big buildup of surplus oil in Iran
I read an article on this yesterday -- not certain if it was linked to from a post here, or I just ran across it in my daily reading.
The oil being stockpiled is heavy crude, it sells at a discount to light sweet crude, and it can't be refined in all refineries. The problem Iran has is that it can't sell the oil, but if it even contemplates cutting production, it'll get hit with tons of pressure. So what choice does it have? Pump the oil out onto the ground?
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:11 pm Post subject: Re: Big buildup of surplus oil in Iran
It's not that big of a buildup, seriously. Last I heard, it was 4-5 tankers, holding maybe 2 million barrels each.
As for why, that's an easy one. Have you seen the condition of Iran's land-based storage tanks? Talk about dilapitated! _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2066 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:34 pm Post subject: Re: Big buildup of surplus oil in Iran
Quote:
The ships can hold more than 30 million
barrels of crude,
It appears to me the average supertanker can carry 2 million barrels per day. 30/2 is 15 supertankers! Can this be right?
Could this be manufactured "news" in order to blame Iran for “hording oil” and/or for the higher oil prices?
Something doesn't smell right. _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: Big buildup of surplus oil in Iran
jato wrote:
Quote:
The ships can hold more than 30 million
barrels of crude,
It appears to me the average supertanker can carry 2 million barrels per day. 30/2 is 15 supertankers! Can this be right?
Could this be manufactured "news" in order to blame Iran for “hording oil” and/or for the higher oil prices?
Something doesn't smell right.
I didn't see the previous article claiming 30 million barrels. That's a lot more significant than 10 million, to be sure. Not so much for the volume of oil, but for the number of tankers that are being taken out of circulation. There are only something like 500 tankers out there. Taking 15 out of the supply chain for an indefinite period could be disruptive.
It should be noted however, that the article doesn't actually say they are holding 30 million barrels. It says the "ships can hold more than 30 million barrels". It's only a semantic difference at this point really, but it could be relevant at a later date. _________________ The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 2:01 pm Post subject: Re: Is Iran Playing the Oil Card? If so, why?
Quote:
Could this be manufactured "news" in order to blame Iran for “hording oil” and/or for the higher oil prices?
Something doesn't smell right.
Interesting observation Jato. Something doesn't sound right to me either, and your observation makes as much or more sense than any other. There was an oil analyst on t.v. the other night saying it didn't make sense for Iran to withhold oil at today's prices. The same analyst also said what others have said, if they are going to withhold it, just don't pump it bc its too expensive to store in tankers (that costs Iran money, doesn't make them money). So, manufactured news? Do we need an enemy to blame high prices on? Makes sense. In fact, it makes the most sense of any observation until someone else can come up with something just as plausible.
I would like to know who is reporting the tankers sitting there full of oil. Where do these reports come from? Has anyone credible reported this like Petrologistics etc?
"They are taking the vessel for 90 days, and they are still floating their inquiry in the market, requesting more tonnage for the purpose of storage," a shipping source familiar with NITC's tonnage inquiry said.
Iran already has 13 VLCCs being used for floating storages, shipping sources said last week.
Shipbrokers said that NITC, a subsidiary of state-owned oil firm National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), has booked three suezmax tankers, the Eastway, Headway and Gateway, for delivery on May 15, shipbrokers said.
Shipbrokers in Asia said the double-sided, single-hulled crude oil tankers, owned and operated by Tanker Pacific that has its corporate headquarters in Singapore, were booked for about $44,000 each.
$616,000 in rentals. They'd only need to sell about 6k barrels at contract prices to recoup that - or are there additional fees? There are 4,024 tankers in service (including VLCC) - can the slack be taken up elsewhere? How much is Iran still exporting in the meantime?
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's oil minister rejected on Saturday any idea of OPEC raising production, saying it would fail to ease record prices as the market was already "saturated" with oil.
Gholamhossein Nozari also dismissed as a "political move" Saudi Arabia's announcement on Friday of a modest hike in output after an appeal from visiting U.S. President George W. Bush.
"No, the market is saturated with oil and a hike in production does not have an impact on the price," Nozari told reporters when asked whether the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would increase production.
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe.
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