Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:15 pm Post subject: Re: Has Peak Oil gone Mainstream?
Quote:
There will be overload freighters moving from Indonesia to New Zealand; refugees on foot (or in cars traveling on fumes) will go to Portland. It will not end well.
Word.
Anyway, peak oil will probably never truly get mainstream. As has been mentioned on this site many times in the past, it will probably always be some economic symptom that gets the attention. Like the credit crisis and housing crisis now, even though it's all grounded in resource peaks. Food prices, now that's a more compelling symptom. _________________ "Life is merely an orderly decay of energy states, and survival requires the continual discovery of new energy to pump into the system. He who controls the sources of energy controls the means of survival. "
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 6:35 am Post subject: Re: Has Peak Oil gone Mainstream?
Yesterday it really did hit the mainstream here. Peak oil doomerism was #1 news story on the economy section of the #1 daily newspaper that has nationwide circulation. I was quite shocked. They even mentioned matthew simmons by name! It was topped off with a very bleak photograph of can't remember what exactly. But in the end, after presenting the very rudimentary arguments composing the idea of peak oil being a problem, they did themselves in by letting a fifth of the article completely trash the general tone of their own article. A quote from some bigass economist that downplayed it all as some conspiracy theory, and just a baseless, general argument of "most oil experts, however, dismiss these prophets of impending apocalypse."
Still, 4/5ths of the thing was presenting some of the easier to understand points about peak oil in a very concerned way. Doing themselves in at the end of the article I just couldnt understand - my impression was of an introduction of ideas to a general populace so that later on, the whole brunt of it might become a little more bearable.
Peak Oil wasn't mentioned directly. But they outlined the general trend of supply plateau and beginnings of supply decline, and a demand that just keeps growing. Producing countries diminishing oil exports because of growth of internal demand. 120$ oil, and a future outlook of where price still continues to rise rapidly. No big oilfield discoveries for so and so long, etc.
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:45 am Post subject: Re: Has Peak Oil gone Mainstream?
Earlier this week, the leader of Canada's Liberal Party, Stephane Dion, mentioned Peak Oil:
Quote:
"The peak oil era is happening and we need to prepare our country to win in this economy," he said to supporters, who paid $500 a plate to hear Dion speak.
To put this in perspective for non-Canadians: the Liberals, at the federal level, are Canada's default political party, having been in power for more years than any other party since Canada's inception in 1867. Political opinion doesn't come more mainstream in Canada than the public pronouncements of the Liberal Party's leader.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 3127 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:45 am Post subject: Re: Has Peak Oil gone Mainstream?
phaeryen wrote:
Still, 4/5ths of the thing was presenting some of the easier to understand points about peak oil in a very concerned way. Doing themselves in at the end of the article I just couldnt understand - my impression was of an introduction of ideas to a general populace so that later on, the whole brunt of it might become a little more bearable.
It's Global Warming all over again. The press feels the need to present both sides of the debate as appearing to have equal weight. They will continue to do this long after the concensus has swung one way or the other.
So get ready for a decade of an "Is it a problem?" meme in these news articles while the world crashes and burns around us rather than "It IS a problem, so what do we do about it?".
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3346 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Mon May 19, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject: Re: Has Peak Oil gone Mainstream?
USAToday website: Type in Peak Oil-you get news, ads, and:
Peak oil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia May 17, 2008
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum ... predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil Peak Oil News and Message Boards May 15, 2008
Community and collaboration portal working to educate and promote awareness of global hydrocarbon depletion.
http://www.peakoil.com/ Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) May 19, 2008
Network of concerned European scientists working to evaluate the world's endowment and definition of oil and gas; study its depletion; and raise awareness of the ...
http://www.peakoil.net/ Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash May 16, 2008
Information on the geological, economical, political, and social aspects of the peak oil phenomenon.
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ PeakOil.org April 18, 2008
Looks at the potential for the peak in world oil production to radically change civilization.
http://www.peakoil.org/ _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
In 2000 a Saudi oil geologist named Sadad I. Al Husseini made a startling discovery. Husseini, then head of exploration and production for the state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, had long been skeptical of the oil industry's upbeat forecasts for future production. Since the mid-1990s he had been studying data from the 250 or so major oil fields that produce most of the world's oil. He looked at how much crude remained in each one and how rapidly it was being depleted, then added all the new fields that oil companies hoped to bring on line in coming decades. When he tallied the numbers, Husseini says he realized that many oil experts "were either misreading the global reserves and oil-production data or obfuscating it."
Where mainstream forecasts showed output rising steadily each year in a great upward curve that kept up with global demand, Husseini's calculations showed output leveling off, starting as early as 2004. Just as alarming, this production plateau would last 15 years at best, after which the output of conventional oil would begin "a gradual but irreversible decline."
That is hardly the kind of scenario we've come to expect from Saudi Aramco, which sits atop the world's largest proven oil reserves—some 260 billion barrels, or roughly a fifth of the world's known crude—and routinely claims that oil will remain plentiful for many more decades. Indeed, according to an industry source, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi took a dim view of Husseini's report, and in 2004 Husseini retired from Aramco to become an industry consultant. But if he is right, a dramatic shift lies just ahead for a world whose critical systems, from defense to transportation to food production, all run on cheap, abundant oil.
They're about as mainstream as you can get. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Peak oil
After 150 years of growth, the oil age is beginning to come to an end. "Peak oil" is the common term for when production stops increasing and starts to decline. At that point what have been ever-expanding and cheap supplies of the resource on which all modern economies depend become scarcer and more expensive, with potentially devastating consequences.
Pessimists believe that production has passed its peak. Optimists say it may be 20 years or so away – which would give us some time to prepare – but are now muted. Last week the hitherto optimistic International Energy Agency admitted that it may have overestimated future capacity. Chris Skrebowski, editor of 'Petroleum Review' and once an optimist himself, believes that the world is now in "the foothills of peak oil". Prices may ease a bit over the next few years, but then the real crunch will come. The price then? "Pick a number!"
One thing a number of MSM articles have gotten wrong is the "pessimists believe that production has passed its peak" meme. It would be much more accurate--and illustrative of the timelines of Peak Oil Theory--to say that the pessimists believe that production has reached its peak. Without clarifying the notion of the "bumpy plateau," I think we're going to get a lot of false dawns and wasted cheering when oil prices go down for a few weeks or months after hitting new highs.
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1195 Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 6:48 am Post subject: Re: Has Peak Oil gone Mainstream?
The term 'peak oil' may be bandied about more often, but people still don't get it. They had peak oil as the topic on Australia Talks today (a talk-back radio program on Radio Australia) and I heard most of the usual denialist stuff on why peak oil is a scam, conspiracy theory, plot by big oil co.s, scare-mongering for the gullible ... whatever. I think it will take a while before there is general acknowledgement, but probably years before the denialists give up. _________________ Kind regards, Katkinkate
"The ultimate goal of farming is not the growing of crops,
but the cultivation and perfection of human beings."
Masanobu Fukuoka
Last edited by katkinkate on Mon May 26, 2008 7:52 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Feb 01, 2006 Posts: 474 Location: Northern US
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 7:31 am Post subject: Re: Has Peak Oil gone Mainstream?
Pretty good article yesterday (Sunday) in a north Ohio paper, written by the AP. By calling the article 'good', it talked about the back-to-the-landers, and also 'the gun' folks.
It even mentioned PO and PO.com! Saved article for wife and kids to read. _________________ "...the problem is today we have unknown unknowns."
Dominique Strauss-Kahn; IMF chief
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 8:12 am Post subject: Re: Has Peak Oil gone Mainstream?
I did a simple search for peak oil on Google News this morning. This was the top story. _________________ Live simply, love generously, care deeply, and speak kindly.
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass;
It's about learning how to dance in the rain.
Joined: Sep 24, 2007 Posts: 2584 Location: third from the sun
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 9:24 am Post subject: Re: Has Peak Oil gone Mainstream?
mos6507 wrote:
So get ready for a decade of an "Is it a problem?" meme in these news articles while the world crashes and burns around us rather than "It IS a problem, so what do we do about it?".
That's the most likely public reaction but this time they probably ain't really got a full decade. But they'll do their best to confuse the waters for the next 5-6 years or so. You'll especially see all sorts of discussions of "solutions" involving tar sands, methane hydrates and the like.
We are about to be instructed once again about the level of collective stupidity of the human species. _________________ only the paranoid survive
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