Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 8:15 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
Plantagenet wrote:
I agree....nukes will play a big role.
Indeed, nukes will play a big role. Just don't expect any electricity to come of it.
An EM burst doesn't count _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 9:10 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
Plantagenet wrote:
threadbear wrote:
What's to prevent sovereign wealth funds from building them [nukes], using Westinghouse and GE as contractors?
The Sierra CLub Legal Foundation and other "environmentalist" groups have a stated policy of using legal tactics to stop every nuke in the U.S. They sue the utility, sue the state, sue the feds, sue the contractors, sue the county, sue the EPA, sue the private consulting companies...and then they appeal.
The net result of this is that nuclear power projects in the USA are delayed for years and then delayed for decades and everybody involved loses wads of money or goes broke then the nukes get cancelled.
And its a two-fer. The environmentalists not only caused the US to waste decades on building a nuclear power grid that isn't dependent on foreign oil, they are responsible for all the CO2 in the atmosphere and greenhouse warming caused by the coal-fired and diesel-fired generators they caused to be built to fill in for the nukes they stopped.
I'm not cheerleading for nuclear reactors, believe me.
Energy is going to be framed as more and more of a crisis, after gasoline prices start to rise significantly (even if price per barrel drops) Opposition to nukes will evaporate. The Sierra Club, and all of the other environmental groups who oppose it, will be undermined by the propagandizing and lobbying power of the nuclear lobby. Plants will be fast tracked.
Its sad, but fear and poverty will subsume all other concerns. Plus, it'll create a lot of badly needed jobs. It can't go any other way, imho.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 4860 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 10:20 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
threadbear wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
threadbear wrote:
What's to prevent sovereign wealth funds from building them [nukes], using Westinghouse and GE as contractors?
The Sierra CLub Legal Foundation and other "environmentalist" groups have a stated policy of using legal tactics to stop every nuke in the U.S. They sue the utility, sue the state, sue the feds, sue the contractors, sue the county, sue the EPA, sue the private consulting companies...and then they appeal.
The net result of this is that nuclear power projects in the USA are delayed for years and then delayed for decades and everybody involved loses wads of money or goes broke then the nukes get cancelled.
And its a two-fer. The environmentalists not only caused the US to waste decades on building a nuclear power grid that isn't dependent on foreign oil, they are responsible for all the CO2 in the atmosphere and greenhouse warming caused by the coal-fired and diesel-fired generators they caused to be built to fill in for the nukes they stopped.
Plants [nukes] will be fast tracked.
Its sad, but fear and poverty will subsume all other concerns. Plus, it'll create a lot of badly needed jobs. It can't go any other way, imho.
Thats certainly a possible future scenario, but there are other ways it can go. Right now the US isn't on the road to building more nukes. Right now the US is in denial and on the road to blaming high gas prices on speculators while subsidizing more and more corn ethanol and trying to get electricity from windmill farms and spending billions on research for a magic bullet from some new technology to save the day.
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved on Thursday the first site in over 30 years that could eventually house a new nuclear power plant, but the United States is still far away from breaking ground on any new reactors.
_________________
pstarr wrote:
I regularly call on my "Mother" and her ample bosom
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 11:20 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
threadbear wrote:
...
I'm not cheerleading for nuclear reactors, believe me.
Energy is going to be framed as more and more of a crisis, after gasoline prices start to rise significantly (even if price per barrel drops) Opposition to nukes will evaporate. The Sierra Club, and all of the other environmental groups who oppose it, will be undermined by the propagandizing and lobbying power of the nuclear lobby. Plants will be fast tracked.
Its sad, but fear and poverty will subsume all other concerns. Plus, it'll create a lot of badly needed jobs. It can't go any other way, imho.
Q:
Is there a nuke plant currently being built in the USA right now? I keep on hearing these news stories about the political climate shifting in favor of nuclear power, laws being changed, proposals, possible subsidies.....but I can't find a story about any nuke plant literally being constructed right now in the USA.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 3868 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 11:30 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
cube wrote:
threadbear wrote:
...
I'm not cheerleading for nuclear reactors, believe me.
Energy is going to be framed as more and more of a crisis, after gasoline prices start to rise significantly (even if price per barrel drops) Opposition to nukes will evaporate. The Sierra Club, and all of the other environmental groups who oppose it, will be undermined by the propagandizing and lobbying power of the nuclear lobby. Plants will be fast tracked.
Its sad, but fear and poverty will subsume all other concerns. Plus, it'll create a lot of badly needed jobs. It can't go any other way, imho.
Q:
Is there a nuke plant currently being built in the USA right now? I keep on hearing these news stories about the political climate shifting in favor of nuclear power, laws being changed, proposals, possible subsidies.....but I can't find a story about any nuke plant literally being constructed right now in the USA.
If we start right now (ROFL) planning, designing, approving, and building, by about 2025 the power will begin to flow... heh... about 10 years too late. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 4860 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 11:39 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
cube wrote:
I keep on hearing these news stories about the political climate shifting in favor of nuclear power, laws being changed, proposals, possible subsidies.....
The opposite is happening.
The dems are in control of both houses of Congress and will gain more seats in the coming election and the dems oppose nuclear power.
Posted: Sun May 11, 2008 11:47 pm Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
Plantagenet wrote:
cube wrote:
I keep on hearing these news stories about the political climate shifting in favor of nuclear power, laws being changed, proposals, possible subsidies.....
The opposite is happening.
The dems are in control of both houses of Congress and will gain more seats in the coming election and the dems oppose nuclear power.
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 7:42 am Post subject: Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading
dinopello wrote:
I run into this argument all the time about the speculators. The price of oil has been on a steady, more or less constant rise since 2003 (the only "sustained" drop was 6 months at the beginning of '06). I can see how speculator exuberance can make the short-term slope of that increase for brief periods (followed by a dip or correction) but I don't believe a speculator can cause the sustained increase. Unlike gold or silver, you have to take delivery of and use the oil in a fairly short period of time. Is anyone here arguing that the 5 year steady increase is due to speculation ?
BTW, I don't pretend to know much about this type of commodity market/investing. My rail stocks have been doing gangbusters though and I believe I understand the factors behind that. As long as the economy doesn't completely collapse...
That is correct (like many participants already explained).
The herd movement of funds, buying and selling paper barrels, is real, and has an easily measurable effect.
But that effect exists only for short term price movements, and it affects prices both upward and downward.
The present oil crude prices may have a component of some $10 due to financial investors and speculators.
But if crude drops to $105 in the next couple of months, people can thank those investors and speculators for a (temporary) price some $10 bellow equilibrium...
So, the (relatively small) price effects of financial speculation in crude compensate over time, and what remains in the long term is the market balance between offer and demand.
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