How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 2:22 am Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion
If physical infrastructure decays as quickly and as massively as Simmons says, it will probably make the initial drop in supply quite steep, but preserve a little more oil reserves for later years. Whether it will be financially possible or energetically sensible to build huge new rigs and drilling equipment to get the remaining harder-to-extract oil, is another matter. _________________ "A devastating error is to set up a political system based on [individual] desire... the best dictatorship would be one where the government prevents any economical growth."
"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
-Pentti Linkola
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2791 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:04 am Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion
Sounds like Matt's a Neil Young fan, too. Maybe his next PPT will state that Cantarell's decline is Cortez the Killer... _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Walter, there is an unspoken message here.
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:30 am Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion
ZombieMalthus wrote:
Geez, aliens blowing up the Whitehouse, the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse, ... Simmons is getting really alarmist.
Fun read, though.
Fun? Either you have a strong stomach or you believe your signiature?
When a well-respected and successful investment banker, an adviser to presidents, and the best-selling author of a very very technical journal-quality thesis on Saudi Arabian petroleum geology comments on the structural, financial, and social consequences of petroleum decline and failing infrastructure, I would grant it more than a cute quip. Did you read the piece or are you satisfied with your own flippant response?
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 6:09 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion
pstarr wrote:
Fun? Either you have a strong stomach or you believe your signiature?
Did you read the piece or are you satisfied with your own flippant response?
huh?
Yeah, I read through it. I showed it to a couple people too. I thought it was a pretty unique look at the problem.
Most people are just worried about whether there's enough oil in the ground, if they're worried at all. Simmons is also pointing out that the infrastructure to get that oil is breaking down. Upkeep is going to be an unignoreable added cost to exploiting energy reserves.
We're trying to build a 21st century civilization off of rusting, decaying 20th century energy infrastructure.
Something is gonna give, sooner or later.
I simply found the pictures of pestilence, death, and aliens the most striking. I could only imagine Simmons showing those slides at a $1000 per seat luncheon.
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1076 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion
Well, something Fredrik touched on is the feedback loop Aaron (?) talked about in another thread. When oil gets pricey enough that it makes sense to redo the infrastructure, it will be too expensive because of all the oil needed to build the infrastructure.
I really think we've messed things up this time. _________________ What, so I'm in no end game
Move my piece right off the board
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:34 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion
It makes no sense redoing all the infrastructure while reserves are dwindling. The money would be better invested in renewables and energy saving technology.
It's quite scary, not only of the delivery disruptures but for the environmental damage of each leak, the damaging of soils, drinking water and habitat. I reckon oil companies do not pay for this sort af damage...
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:56 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion
ZombieMalthus wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Fun? Either you have a strong stomach or you believe your signiature?
Did you read the piece or are you satisfied with your own flippant response?
huh?
Yeah, I read through it. I showed it to a couple people too. I thought it was a pretty unique look at the problem.
Most people are just worried about whether there's enough oil in the ground, if they're worried at all. Simmons is also pointing out that the infrastructure to get that oil is breaking down. Upkeep is going to be an unignoreable added cost to exploiting energy reserves.
We're trying to build a 21st century civilization off of rusting, decaying 20th century energy infrastructure.
Something is gonna give, sooner or later.
I simply found the pictures of pestilence, death, and aliens the most striking. I could only imagine Simmons showing those slides at a $1000 per seat luncheon.
Got it. and welcome to PO.com _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2791 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion
alokin wrote:
It makes no sense redoing all the infrastructure while reserves are dwindling. The money would be better invested in renewables and energy saving technology.
Yeah. Would like to see a prioritized list of what Matt thinks should be taken care of, instead of knowing that fixing everything will set us back $50 trillion+. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Walter, there is an unspoken message here.
Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 4:55 pm Post subject: Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion
As a UK gas engineer involved in gas pipeline renewal, I have to say that is a good report.
Yes, steel rusts, but ALL steel pipelines of any importance have several built in ways to combat corrosion.
Outer coating - usually plastic sleeve over bitumastic base, or better still powder or polymer / epoxy coatings
Inside wall - similar to above or other (many types) of internal coatings.
Ongoing protection - Either sacraficial anode or impressed current cathodic protection.
ALL the above work & work well. I plan replacement gas mains for my living - I cant ever remember replacing any modern (1960's or later) steel gas on-land pipeline due to corrosion.
Not to say we dont have the occasional pipeline corrosion problem, which causes a localised repair or short replacement section. This is usually caused by external interference damage to the coating, allowing corrosion. On UK high pressure pipelines this is picked up by the "intelligent pig" as mentioned in the report, and developed by British Gas. Cathodic protection monitoring also VERY important.
Undersea a different matter - I'm not qualified or experienced to comment.
Simple reply to a complex subject, but I would not lose sleep worrying about corrosion of overland steel pipelines. Not in the UK anyway.
Gasmon _________________ Oiyl be back !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
and welcome to PO.com 
