Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3368 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia to boost capacity to 12.5 mb/d
Saudis likely still have spare capacity to some extent, and big projects coming on line like Manifa. Problem is much of it is sour grades that are difficult to refine, thus you have a fundamental bottleneck in added supply. The potential of their big fields starting to crash is always there, too. Since their field-by-field data is classified all we can do is guess.
Hey rockdoc - think if they blew down the gas cap in a field like Shedgum it would register seismically? I wonder if we should follow data on a site like the IRIS Seismic Monitor. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe.
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 6:34 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia to boost capacity to 12.5 mb/d
The Dude said:
Quote:
Saudis likely still have spare capacity to some extent, and big projects coming on line like Manifa. Problem is much of it is sour grades that are difficult to refine, thus you have a fundamental bottleneck in added supply. The potential of their big fields starting to crash is always there, too. Since their field-by-field data is classified all we can do is guess.
I know that some of their fields are contaminated with vanadium. Has anyone ever figured out how to refine it, without burning down the refinery?
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia to boost capacity to 12.5 mb/d
Quote:
It's true. I've never seen 'capacity" defined, whereas original oil in place (OOIP), reserves (proven, probable, possible), etc. all have well defined numerically consistent and mathematically robust definitions.
that's misleading. It is well understood in the business that spare capacity refers to that amount of production that could be achieved given existing discoveries and existing facilities. In this calculation you can only include proven, proven undeveloped and certain types of probables. Basically it is what you have sitting there that you can turn on with minimal effort and expense and very low risk. The uncertainty around their spare capacity is no more than the uncertainty around what their actual production is. That number is inferred by third parties from shipments or taken from the OPEC submissions which the Saudis make.
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