Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4333 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:30 pm Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
carbon14 wrote:
Read Tainters book - complexity requires surplus energy - in the context of human populations. Big = in trouble / small = ok. Londinium had 60,000 people when it founded now it has >7 million - that's a lot of hungry people...
Big = in trouble, so resouces go to the big cities 1st.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1167 Location: Central NC
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
vision-master wrote:
carbon14 wrote:
Read Tainters book - complexity requires surplus energy - in the context of human populations. Big = in trouble / small = ok. Londinium had 60,000 people when it founded now it has >7 million - that's a lot of hungry people...
Big = in trouble, so resouces go to the big cities 1st.
You outta be able to figure that one out.
plus that is where all the really "important" people live.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4333 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
FireJack wrote:
Food will be the big thing. Think very carefully about what skills you have or what you might wish you had and where that would be most useful. Having food brought in from long distances may not be possible so knowing how to grow good healthy food may be very important.
I image it will vary from city to city depending on where it is. I bet having a place where you can be completely self sifficent for short periods might be a good idea.
Trains & barges my friend.
Major distribution centers will be in large cities.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4333 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:36 pm Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
Homesteader wrote:
vision-master wrote:
carbon14 wrote:
Read Tainters book - complexity requires surplus energy - in the context of human populations. Big = in trouble / small = ok. Londinium had 60,000 people when it founded now it has >7 million - that's a lot of hungry people...
Big = in trouble, so resouces go to the big cities 1st.
You outta be able to figure that one out.
plus that is where all the really "important" people live.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6428 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:58 pm Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
Hallo, Jan! Wilkommen. I lived in Vienna from 1963 to 1969 (my dad worked for IAEA on the Ringstrasse but was finally booted out by the Russians in a political struggle for his position). As far as I know, you are the only Viennese PO.com member.
I wonder if (other than the major landmarks) Vienna would be recognizable to me today.
Anyway, I voted remote village because I feel that is the setting in which people will be most forced to be prepared for self-sufficiency, and thus may actually achieve some measure of it when the deeper troubles begin. Also, I feel that it's safer away from the major population centers, which will have huge underclasses that are likely to become violent.
Also, I am a country boy by design. For me there is now no other way to live. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Apr 07, 2005 Posts: 225 Location: West of Chicago
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:33 pm Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
Small town / Isolated for me.
I will live where the food and firewood originate. Further, small town folks tend to be birds of the same feather.
I look at Chicago and ask myself how many of these folks are going to make it once the looting and burning phase of our decline is past and I just don't see how.
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:46 pm Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
I was just down near NYC. It looks like it's just fine. Meanwhile up here the economy is falling apart. We need to heat our houses and drive long distances to get things. People in my county make as much as people in Alabama. The heating season runs at least 6 months. People seem to be leaving. Wouldn't you? I think about it sometimes. If I didn't have a job here, I don't know if I'd hang out.
I think a smallish town is great if you have a pension or some kind of income. If you have to work for a living, it's a different story. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:07 pm Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
I think it depends on where the city is. If it's on a navigable waterway and has ready access to freshwater (think Great Lakes and Mississippi/Missouri/Ohio River watersheds!!!), then I think those cities might do well.
But if it's a landlocked city, has poor agricultural hinterlands and uses lots of energy and expense just to keep its residents from getting thirsty, then those cities don't have much of a chance.
Which cities thrived and grew before oil consumption started skyrocketing in the 1920s? The answers to that might be the places to start looking for the future.
I usually don't refer to Wikipedia, but the data for my city is correct so I assume the others are correct....
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 2:14 am Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
I live in a town of 600, when our disabled daughter passed away we had more well wishers than we could handle, the whole community supported us. This community atmosphere is more valuable in the long run than a warehouse full of food and guns. We have cattle ranches near by, firewood close, some people still know how to garden, can etc. I feel on balance our chances of long term survival or relative prosperity are best here. Big cities are death traps and the grave yards of tomorrow. Think about it, the reason we know some civilizations collapsed is because we find their empty decayed cities.
Joined: Nov 25, 2006 Posts: 1424 Location: Columbia, South Carolina
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 2:22 am Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
I voted isolated village.
But that's in the future. For the next 5-years or so I'll likely live in or around New York City and will be happy with that. _________________ My PO Amazon store (shameless plug).
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 4:09 am Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
carbon14 wrote:
Read Tainters book - complexity requires surplus energy - in the context of human populations. Big = in trouble / small = ok. Londinium had 60,000 people when it founded now it has >7 million - that's a lot of hungry people...
True, but you can't assume that citys will collapse because you have a lot of people and no areas to grow food. I think that citys will go through two stages of change.
First they will collapse from the outside in on them selves, which is already happening in some places. Areas with limited transport links will become almost valueless, whereas inner city areas with close public transport could see the value of property go up. As a model for this look at London after the war and into the mid 70's when resources were more scarce. Large houses which were built for single famillys were split into tiny flats and single room apartments. As the property boom started, triggered by more accessible credit, then these were bought up and turned into single houses again (gentrification). The first stage will see this process reversed, large houses will again be broken into smaller units as the lack of credit will force more people into renting, and expensive fuel will require them to be close to public transport.
The second stage will start when there is no longer enough surplus resources to support high density living on a large scale, and with it comes chaos.
I am not sure how long these different stages will go on for but I would not be supprised if the first one lasts quite a few years and well past PO. Look at your history books, during the second world war there were plenty of people living in the cities even though they were badly damaged, I think that was because higher densities of population provide more opportunitys for trade and to sell skills. The only thing the country side can supply is food and as we all know, man does not live by bread alone.
Joined: May 06, 2008 Posts: 57 Location: The hills of Northeast Iowa
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 6:37 am Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
I picked isolated village.
From where we live, we have at least two different self-sufficient organic farmers (one animals, the other produce), we live in a river valley ringed with trees, animals, and we have a small spring fed stream within a tenth of a mile.
For my money, rural areas will suffer short term as they adjust to the loss of materials, food, and so on because of the lack of transportation. However, long term, the sense of community and the ability to create new from old will create small burgs all over the country who are almost entirely self-sufficient.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 7:19 am Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
I chose isolated village.
People know how to fix things, and are generally manualy adept as well as being able to grow stuff.
And they're all armed to the hilt (yes, even here in Euro-weenie France).
Number one priority is don't piss off the neighbours. _________________ All that we are is the result of what we have thought. The mind is everything. What we think we become. - Buddha
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 7:42 am Post subject: Re: Big city, smallish town or isolated village?
AnIowan wrote:
I picked isolated village.
From where we live, we have at least two different self-sufficient organic farmers (one animals, the other produce), we live in a river valley ringed with trees, animals, and we have a small spring fed stream within a tenth of a mile.
For my money, rural areas will suffer short term as they adjust to the loss of materials, food, and so on because of the lack of transportation. However, long term, the sense of community and the ability to create new from old will create small burgs all over the country who are almost entirely self-sufficient.
I would say you were right, I am keeping one foot in the city and the other in the country and then watch which way the cookie crumbles.
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