Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 4:27 am Post subject: China oil demand down 3.2% in April
Big drop in Chinese oil consumption in April:
Quote:
China's April crude oil imports fell by 3.9 percent from a year ago to 3.47 million bpd, and were also down from the record of 4.07 million bpd in March, official Chinese data showed.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 5:02 am Post subject: Re: China oil demand down 3.2% in April
Perhabs supply decreases steeper than demand... A list of possibilities:
1) oil plants/installations/pipeline rusting
2) EROEI going south far faster than oil "production"
3) redirection of OPEC oil for themselves since they earn more and more money which is used for local population.
4) soon OPEC countries counting on beeing OPIC countries while their oil fields are getting depleted (Cantarel, Norway)...
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 7:20 am Post subject: Re: China oil demand down 3.2% in April
JohnDenver wrote:
Big drop in Chinese oil consumption in April:
Quote:
China's April crude oil imports fell by 3.9 percent from a year ago to 3.47 million bpd, and were also down from the record of 4.07 million bpd in March, official Chinese data showed.
Meanwhile, also in April, WTI spot prices rose from $100 to $120.
Looks like we got a problem trying to explain that $20 rise in terms of supply and demand.
That is imports, and just one month. What was China's overall consumption and what is the recent trend?
There is no problem explaining the rise, in terms of supply and demand. According to the EIA (latest STEO), oil production has lagged oil consumption in 16 of the last 18 months. Until that is reversed, oil prices will continue to rise.
Your timing has not been the best today John Denver.
Quote:
May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record above $127 on speculation China will need to increase diesel purchases for its power plants, straining limited supplies.
Oil-product traders may increase diesel fuel imports to run generators after State Grid Corp. of China said 0.5 percent of China's total power capacity remains shut after an earthquake on May 12. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its crude-oil price forecast for the second half of this year to $141 a barrel, from $107, citing supply constraints.
``You'll probably see some effect from the earthquake as they'll need energy to rebuild the parts that were destroyed,'' said Thina Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea Bank AB in Oslo. ``There's also a lot of political risk, as we've seen with the production shut-in in Nigeria.''
Crude oil for June delivery rose as much as $3.17, or 2.6 percent, to $127.29 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $126.22 a barrel at 1:03 p.m. London time.
U.S. President George W. Bush will ask Saudi Arabia to increase oil production to help lower prices during a visit to Riyadh this weekend, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters traveling on Air Force One.
About 500,000 barrels a day will remain shut in by militant attacks in Nigeria for the ``foreseeable future,'' the International Energy Agency said on May 13.
A gasoline pipeline explosion that killed about 100 people in Nigeria yesterday prompted concerns of further supply disruption. The fire was caused accidentally during construction work, according to Nigeria's Civil Defense Corps.
Diesel Shortage
``The main driver for the oil market is still distillates,'' said Tetsu Emori, fund manager at Astmax Ltd. in Tokyo. The damage ``is quite unbelievable. Generators will be necessary to produce electricity and in that case diesel should be a very important material.''
Supplies of distillate fuels, including diesel and jet fuel, in developed countries fell 6.7 percent to 477.6 million barrels in March from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency said May 13. U.S. inventories in the week ended May 9 were 2 percent lower than their five-year average, according to data from Barclays Capital.
PetroChina Buys
PetroChina International Co., the trading unit of PetroChina Co., the country's biggest oil producer, has already purchased 400,000 tons, or 2.9 million barrels, of diesel for June. That's in addition to the 200,000 tons that China International United Petroleum & Chemicals Corp., the nation's largest trader, bought for the month.
Refiners in the U.S. are limited in their ability to produce large amounts of distillates, including heating oil and diesel, because their units are designed to produce higher amounts of gasoline.
The profit margin, or crack spread, for making a barrel of oil into one of heating oil surged to $29.554 a barrel on May 13, the highest since at least 1989, according to futures prices. It is at $28.73 a barrel today. The spread for gasoline is 75 percent below a year earlier.
But having said that the circumstances have changed remarkably since April with the earthquake, but you have missed out the supply disruption in Nigeria.
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:39 pm Post subject: Re: China oil demand down 3.2% in April
Quote:
Looks like we got a problem trying to explain that $20 rise in terms of supply and demand.
Last time I checked China was not the only country burning oil. _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2956 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:45 pm Post subject: Re: China oil demand down 3.2% in April
Take a look at the Energy Shortage website if you're in too much of a hurry to dig up stories. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: China oil demand down 3.2% in April
Considering 50,000 have died off this week on top of the 70,000 Burmahans who died off the week before, don't be surprised if oil demand keeps shrinking. Amazing thing, human die-off. _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement & cannibalism.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 3:17 pm Post subject: Re: China oil demand down 3.2% in April
SyS1 said:
Quote:
2) EROEI going south far faster than oil "production"
Take a look at the Total AE curve for the US. Available Energy declined by 28.8% from 1971 to 1976. (This can be confirmed through analysis of GNP, imports and US production.) Every indication is that energy from oil world wide will do much the same thing.
Not only is China’s demand for oil going down, so is everything else, except food. Concrete prices have fallen about $10 in the US recently. This is usually contributed to the US housing slowdown, but the numbers indicate something else is going on. One of the major reasons for rapidly increasing concrete prices in the US has been demand from China. A rising Chinese demand has also fueled increased scrap metal prices. It appears that metals and concrete prices in the US are both showing weakness:
Quote:
China's imports of unwrought copper fell 3.1 per cent to 148,060 tonnes in April from the previous month. Imports in the first four months were 617,078 tonnes, down 17.2 per cent from a year earlier, customs figures showed. Three-month zinc dropped $20 to $2,265/2,275 a tonne. Lead shed $20 to $2,235/2,245 a tonne, after a 2.6 per cent slide on Wednesday, while nickel rose to $26,650/26,750 from $26,500/26,600. Tin traded at $25,100/25,200 versus $25,150/25,155.
Source : Business Line
Apparently rising energy costs are starting to drag on the Dragon’s economy.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject: Re: China oil demand down 3.2% in April
shortonoil wrote:
Not only is China’s demand for oil going down
Sheesh, one month's figures suddenly become a trend?
Maybe the trailing off of Olympic preparations is having a short term effect, or it is just an aberration. Production and consumption figures (though no-one has actually posted China's consumption figures for April, just the import figure) do fluctuate, you know.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2678 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject: Re: China oil demand down 3.2% in April
China is building one new coal power plant every week. Guess why? To cut oil use. Seems substitution managed to keep up with the growing oil demand for once. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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