Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: OMFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gandalf_the_White said:
Quote:
I'll have to find DP's latest post to see if domestic stocks are in the 1 billion barrel range. I would think that would drive prices down since we would have a whole summer's worth of supply just sitting around somewhere.
Not really. There is a problem called LOI or MOI (lowest operable inventory). It takes 185 mb of product just to fill the pipe lines between the refiners in TX and the consumers in NY. Actual usable nationwide inventory is probably less than a few days. At one point last summer year it was down to 21 hrs.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3478 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 3:13 pm Post subject: Re: OMFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
shortonoil wrote:
Gandalf_the_White said:
Quote:
I'll have to find DP's latest post to see if domestic stocks are in the 1 billion barrel range. I would think that would drive prices down since we would have a whole summer's worth of supply just sitting around somewhere.
Not really. There is a problem called LOI or MOI (lowest operable inventory). It takes 185 mb of product just to fill the pipe lines between the refiners in TX and the consumers in NY. Actual usable nationwide inventory is probably less than a few days. At one point last summer year it was down to 21 hrs.
Oil supply is like our blood supply. Lets say you got 5.6 liters of blood, but you lose around 2 liters and then you die, even thou you still have over 3.5 liters left. Hey, he still had lot's of blood left, whaaaaaaaat !
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject: Re: OMFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Actually there is alot more than a billion barrels of oil in the US.
That the majority of it isn't recoverable isn't that important is it? _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3002 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 5:44 pm Post subject: Re: OMFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jack wrote:
Reflect a moment. What happens when their eyes open? What will they think, do, and say? Does anyone suppose everyone will start working together in a jolly community of mutually supportive people?
My guess? We will have an enraged mob. And the mob will find a demagogue, who will use it - and both direct and focus its insane rage. ...
I agree. I'm thinking it would probably take a week or less to see widespread chaos-the criminal element would start, then, people would be lined up for gas, and rushing to the stores to buy anything they could (bet the credit cards get Real warm). Then, curfews and martial law because no way is there enough law enforcement to deal with the situation. I have no faith in the general public-I think they are going to freak out big time when they realize it's TEOTWAWKI. (And, even with panics starting to spread, they'll just rush out and join the throngs-not because they understand what is really happening, but, because their neighbors are freaking out.) _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3478 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 5:51 pm Post subject: Re: OMFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ferretlover wrote:
Jack wrote:
Reflect a moment. What happens when their eyes open? What will they think, do, and say? Does anyone suppose everyone will start working together in a jolly community of mutually supportive people?
My guess? We will have an enraged mob. And the mob will find a demagogue, who will use it - and both direct and focus its insane rage. ...
I agree. I'm thinking it would probably take a week or less to see widespread chaos-the criminal element would start, then, people would be lined up for gas, and rushing to the stores to buy anything they could (bet the credit cards get Real warm). Then, curfews and martial law because no way is there enough law enforcement to deal with the situation. I have no faith in the general public-I think they are going to freak out big time when they realize it's TEOTWAWKI. (And, even with panics starting to spread, they'll just rush out and join the throngs-not because they understand what is really happening, but, because their neighbors are freaking out.)
This is when one needs a bug-out-place. Extra gas storage for the car, a bunch of food and see ya before the roads get blocked.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2615 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 6:31 pm Post subject: Re: OMFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Twilight wrote:
By the way, the DOE page on the SPR states the maximum drawdown capability is 4.4mb/d.
What is this crap? Is it me, or is it getting easier? Calling bullshit these days requires nothing more than a pocket calculator.
That was his point, perhaps. 4.4 mb/d out of ca. 800 BBO will last ca. 7 months. We don't need imports! Oh sure, we'll come up about half short on supply, but hey.
That business of the MOL couldn't be more obscure. Found out about it on my own, didn't read about it in Deffeyes or Simmons or Kunstler. And it'll never be an issue because we're Awash in Oil!
Tyson Slocum, I've heard that weasel on leftist radio, where debate on energy has all the sophistication of Tolkien's dualism. Sorry Gandalf! You can find more of his Big Oil Is Evil spiels on Google Video if you're game.
Hey G the W, ever read Michael Moorcock on Politics, Punk, Tolkien , and Everything Else? I've enjoyed JRR since I was a tyke btw but Moorcock has a point about him being a bit sententious. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The god damn plane has crashed into the mountain!
"Bill O’Reilly showed a startling degree of ignorance by asking, “OK, so who’s the guy who sets the world price of oil? Somebody has to set it at $125/barrel, it just doesn’t arrive at that number.”
One sentence starting the story really made me laugh: "Bill O’Reilly is generally a pretty fair minded commentator in my view and I say that despite the fact that he’s far more Liberal than I am."
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 7:15 pm Post subject: Re: OMFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Historically, the deeper into fascism you get the easier the more blatant the lies can become.
TheDude wrote:
Twilight wrote:
By the way, the DOE page on the SPR states the maximum drawdown capability is 4.4mb/d.
What is this crap? Is it me, or is it getting easier? Calling bullshit these days requires nothing more than a pocket calculator.
That was his point, perhaps. 4.4 mb/d out of ca. 800 BBO will last ca. 7 months. We don't need imports! Oh sure, we'll come up about half short on supply, but hey.
That business of the MOL couldn't be more obscure. Found out about it on my own, didn't read about it in Deffeyes or Simmons or Kunstler. And it'll never be an issue because we're Awash in Oil!
Tyson Slocum, I've heard that weasel on leftist radio, where debate on energy has all the sophistication of Tolkien's dualism. Sorry Gandalf! You can find more of his Big Oil Is Evil spiels on Google Video if you're game.
_________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5182 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 7:47 pm Post subject: Re: OMFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I've been away a few days.
Congress voted to raise the total size of the SPR to 1 billion barrels and work is undergoing at this time to do so. As far as I know, the 1 billion storage will be available about 2010 or slightly later.
Presently the SPR is within 20 to 30 million barrels short of its available storage capacity (about 720 to 730 million barrels). Even refilling it at the slow 70,000 bpd level would take some time.
Please note that US law does not allow the SPR to be used for anything other than supply interuptions. Apparently the latest thing from Congress is that they want to use the SPR as more of a price control mechanism. In practice, this has what happened frequently for short periods over the last 10 years. Luckily, the main goal of filling the SPR to capacity was undertaken before Katrina.
As I've said many times, short of an actual supply interuption, the SPR should be filled to maximum capacity as soon as possible. However there are so many in Congress that actually believe a diversion of 70,000 bpd will make a significant difference in today's price - and we just shouldn't care about supply interuptions in the future.
The misleadingly titled Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory 2005 (it shows additions up to July '0 states that stocks are both sweet and sour, 280.6 million bbls and 422.1 million bbls respectively. They make a distinction in terms of sulfur content, not API:
Quote:
For the purposes of the SPR, sweet crude oils are defined as containing a maximum of 0.50 mass percent total sulfur, while sour crude oils can contain up to a maximum of 1.99 mass percent total sulfur. Only similar quality crude oils are commingled in storage, with no mixing of sweet and sour streams being practiced.
The Inventory gives monthly inputs of up to 3.8 MMBbls (for May), and as low as .2 MMBbls (for August). Bit of a spread! May would have an average of 122,580.7 kbpd, August 6451.6 kbpd. Rapier says the average for the last 12 months
is 33 kbpd. How big is this drop in the bucket, anyway? _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The god damn plane has crashed into the mountain!
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4146 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 9:44 am Post subject: Re: OMFG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The title of this thread should be changed.
Who cares AP if someone says something stupid.
I would expect a mod to have a little more restraint.
You want stupid...meet me over in the 911 thread. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
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states that stocks are both sweet and sour, 280.6 million bbls and 422.1 million bbls respectively. They make a distinction in terms of sulfur content, not API:
