Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:12 am Post subject: Re: Now I know about peak oil, what should I do now???
You need to let this soak in a little first. We've all been where you are in the initial panic of realization of PO. You can Plan from very simple to very extreem. Don't go nuts or people will think you've gone crazy.
First whatever you do keep it secret.
Everyone's plan is very very different. My personal belief is to plan just to stay home, and have what I need to NOT LEAVE for at least 6 months if needed,,,,,, SO, what will that take.?
Start off simple with the basics
Get a gas grill with a side burner, and at least 6 propane bottles, get more later. cast iron pans incase you have to cook over fire.
I bought the 1 year supply of food from be prepared, I can't grow crap. Try to store it in the house for longer life.
Alternitve water supply,, I have 2 wells on property, and city water. get a tri fuel generator(runs on natual gas propane and gas) to run pumps if power goes out, Also buy at least 6 gas cans. I also want a old pitcher pump if all else fails, but that is on my lists still.
Alot of household supplies, First aid, tiolet paper, paper towels, all bath supplies, soap, so on and so on. I'm still working on this list myself. some stuff may go bad but whatever. Oh yeh more tiolet paper.
Hand crank radio/flashlights rechargeable batteries with a solar battery charger. walkie talkies.
Guns,, ahh, I love typing that word. rifle and hand gun with 1000rds for each. I recomend the SKS, its cheap. My night vision scope will be here tomorrow. (optional)
Gold/silver, go for a few silver coins, and if you want gold get the small coins 1/10, 1/20 oz It really does feel good to have few.
Household repair supplies, torch, solder, hose clamps, alot of duct tape, wire, PVC supplies, nails and scews, plastic, tarps, ect. this list is endless. Dont forget motor oil and a spare spark plug for your generator.
This is a basic begining, their is ALOT still from this piont in the detials, and everyones needs are different.
Oh yeh a good bike with spare tire tubes.
You can keep thinking of things forever, just start slow and think it though. Half the fun is daydreaming about how it could go.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3316 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:29 am Post subject: Re: Now I know about peak oil, what should I do now???
kernull wrote:
... Are you guys watching oil prices???...
I thought it will do a correction to 115 after hitting 127 ... NO WAY!
It is not going down! And do you know what is going to happen ... And thanks to those who posted concrete answers.
Kernull, good grief! TEOTWAWKI (barring nuclear war) is Not going to happen today, or tomorrow or even next week. Even a pandemic takes time to work its way across the globe.
Take a deep breath, read the suggested forums noted here, and then some of the others, and get your ducks in a row.
Hopefully, once you calm down, you will realize (as I did when I first showed up) that you are preaching to a World Class Choir.
You have two choices: Get a grip on yourself and benefit from the knowledge and expertise graciously shared by those wiser than us-you will greatly increase your chances when TSHTF; or, keep freaking out and greatly increase your chances of becoming a member of the Dieoff Club.
The choice is yours. _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Last edited by Ferretlover on Tue May 20, 2008 8:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6372 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:27 am Post subject: Re: Now I know about peak oil, what should I do now???
kernull wrote:
According to my calcs, in a very very pessimistic scenario you have like 6 month, for building your reserves you will need at least for the next 10 years. If not, you have 1 year. But no more!
Since you've posted little about your situation I won't question your calculations but I do wonder what your plan is for 10-years +1 day?
A pantry is a wise choice in any situation good or bad but you simply can't buy your way out of this situation unless you buy things that will restock the pantry.
A stocked pond as opposed to several cases of tuna for example. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: Now I know about peak oil, what should I do now???
Quote:
Actually, stage 1 is usually denial. This sounds more like...stage 3 (bargaining) or something.
My bad, I guess I skipped a couple of stages and went straight to preparation. I'm glad, kernull looks like he is gonna pop! (bad popcorn joke, I know)
Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 6:12 pm Post subject: Re: Now I know about peak oil, what should I do now???
kernull wrote:
... few give precise solutions. ?
There are no precise solutions.
We can only make the best out of a bad situation.
We have built our world on steroids called crude oil
Now our drug is being shut down. So it is time to go back to a drug free life.
I am a transplant from L.A., lived there 35 years and moved in 1989 to the NE US to 'city-country' as opposed to 'city-city'. I had a big shock the first time the electric went off for more than 5 minutes in my new local. That was the day I learned about self sufficiency about 17 years ago.
Bought some candles and a flashlight and went on from there. But that only clued me into 'short term survival' with my preparedness aimed at 4 to 6 weeks.
Then came 'peak oil' ' peak NG' 'peak food' 'peak water' 'overpopulation' and had my eyes opened to long term, indefinite survival. That was Oct '07 and have been working at restructuring my life almost full time ever since.
Here are some resources that have helped me out. Decide what you want your post carbon life to look like and get to work transferring it the best you can
The End of Suburbia - oil depletion and the collapse of the American dream by Gregory Greene DVD
Don't miss the commentary. Lots of Canadian prejudice against the US as well as snobbery, but very worthwhile behind the scene info.
http://www.endofsuburbia.com/
Farming for Self-sufficiency by John and Sally Seymour
Field Guide to Edible Wild Plants of Eastern and Central North America by Lee Peterson
First Aid for Dogs.
Various authors under related titles...First Aid for Cats...Horses...Pets....even Insects!
Four-Season Harvest:organic vegetables from your home garden all year long. by Eliot Coleman
Going Local: creating self-reliant communities in a global age
by Shuman, Michael
Root Cellaring : the simple no-processing way to store fruits and vegetables by Bubel, Nancy./Bubel, Mike
Seed to Seed: seed saving techniques for the vegetable gardener
by Suzanne Ashworth
Shelters, Shacks, and shanties: the classic guide to building wilderness shelters by Daniel Carter Beard
A Thousand Barrels a Second: the coming oil break point and the challenges facing an energy dependent world by TPeter ertzakian
Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons
Well written book examining 12 of the key Saudi oil fields.
U.S. Army combat skills handbook / Department of the Army.
Lyon's Press
Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: Now I know about peak oil, what should I do now???
Gold?
Gold is good for those worried about inflation hedges. But it all revolves around our world not crumbling too much, as gold can be near worthless as you mentioned.
Let me tell you people in need don't want gold they want water, food and shelter and warm, dry clothes.
Try cig lighters, seeds, 22 ammo, matches, sewing needles, soap, etc., for barter.
You know sewing needles, fishhooks and 22 LR can't be made easily at home.
22 LR may be the small change currency of our future...not bars of gold and silver.
What you going to buy anyway when TEOTWAK arrives?
We go through tons of seeds in a year and they would make good barter items and we get em for free in our food. Especially the high seeds yielding squashes and melons seeds.
Another for 'free area' of barter goods is the disposable plastic bottles we drink from. Our family goes though 20 - 25 bottles a week. They can be saved if one has the room (which we don't) and used for barter if need be. (People will need empty bottles.)
If gold makes you feel good then go for it.
.."In a shipwreck, one of the passengers fastened a belt about him with one hundred pounds of gold in it, with which he was afterwards found at the bottom. Now, as he was sinking--had he the gold? Or had the gold him?" ~ Ruskin
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1011 Location: was rwwff
Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 6:45 pm Post subject: Re: Now I know about peak oil, what should I do now???
Just to add some commentary...
After catching your breath and slowing down so that you can act purposefully rather than like a nutball.....
Examine your current situation from the point of view of calmly extending the amount of time you could keep yourself and family up and lively without modern conveniences like stores, power, tap water, fuel, engines. It'll feel like hurricane/earthquake prep to start with.
If you can get yourself into a condition where you could go 2-3 weeks in relative comfort (ie, not starving, or dieing of dehydration) then you are well ahead of the curve and can ask the question, "if I am to be without grocery stores, electricity, fuel, and tap water for a year, where do Kin and Me want or need to be?" The answer to that question can give you an idea of what to do next.
Oh. And at least for the near term... No talking about PO with relatives. They will designate you Family Crazy #382; which will remain your name for the remainder of eternity. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 7:45 pm Post subject: Re: Now I know about peak oil, what should I do now???
My $.02.
As an aside to your question, let's assume that you worst case will not be realized, but that we will instead face an ever mounting wall of cost increases in everything we consume.
There is one action above all others that will help mitigate that situation. Buy and store consumables. There isn't anything that I've purchased and stored in the last 3 years that hasn't kept pace with inflation.
I agree with Pops that a pantry is of paramount concern. Go out today and buy a huge box of granola bars and 3 jars of peanut butter. _________________ Cougar
"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 597 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: Now I know about peak oil, what should I do now???
kernull wrote:
Freaking? Yoga?? What the heck!!!
Are you guys watching oil prices???
I thought it will do a correction to 80... NO WAY!
I thought it will do a correction to 115 after hitting 127 ... NO WAY!
It is not going down! And do you know what is going to happen when it crosses 150 level? A huge spike to 200! Thhaaaats when you will see the panic. Thaaats when you will see all the yoga teachers in the supermarket buying food. And thats when oil is goning to stay at 170-180, but no less.
Yep, definitely the Dr Smith reaction:
When in danger
when in doubt
run in circles
yell and shout.
Look, we're all really glad you see the light, but you're not telling us anything that anyone here has not already considered as a possibility. Yeah, time could be very short, but we're mostly prepped to the best of our ability and most of us have Plans B, C and D figured out. Some of us, perhaps more than a few, are more in the "two or more years" rather than the "six months" before TSHTF (The Sh*t Hits The Fan) category.
YOU need to take a breath, do what has been suggested, and start reading and planning. Let's say you're right and you've we've only got 6 months before the giant sucking sound is coming from your car's gas tank. Use the next few weeks familiarizing yourself with the PO reading list given in the above replies and start getting ready.
I don't know your situation, but perhaps you have six kids and are unemployed. The only thing that has changed is that now you have a clue as to why things are happening the way they are. That puts you way ahead of the guy who is employed, no kids and has no clue.
Learn to grow food is great advice and you are either in or about to be in prime planting time. DO NOT go out and buy $5,000 worth of gardening supplies, fertilizers and equipment. Your first crop will suck. This is my first year and I don't have a back yard suitable for growing, so I bought a dozen 5 gallon sized pots and am learning the hard way. Total cost about $300 this spring and I could have done it for less if I had read a little more first. My advice is to go buy a few tomato plants. Next plant some lettuce and radishes, beans and cucumbers from seed. And go here and buy the book. This is your project starting this fall.
Start figuring out what you eat. You may need to change your diet. Learning to make your own bread is a skill that you won't regret (even if it's in a bread machine). Learn to cook dishes based on canned items. Learn about nutrition. This is a long term item and is not a do-or-die today thing.
Stock up on 2 months supplies. Eat only from that stock for a month. Figure out what you did wrong, because you're going to screw it up even if you do read a bunch first (though not as badly as if you didn't).
Get fit. If you've got a belly, lose it. If you don't have a bicycle, think seriously about getting one. Walk a lot.
But if you've got money to burn and absolutely have to do something today, go here and spend away on freeze dried food and cool supplies. They've got decent prices and great shipping prices. Just stay away from the MRE's (more on that in the forums). Just remember we told you to read before you go buying a bunch of stuff.
Finally, get a hold of yourself as the world isn't ending tomorrow. Go out with some buddies this weekend and grab a few adult beverages and a pizza. Watch a movie. You have to do these things because your mind has to take time to work through what you're learning.
And above all... DON'T PREACH ABOUT PEAK OIL.
One final note... keep your mouth shut about your preps! _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4054 Location: Gathering
Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 9:50 am Post subject: Re: Now I know about peak oil, what should I do now???
SpringCreekFarm wrote:
Tex is right. Yoga is a great way to unwind and get your mental focus back. Give it a try.
Yes. I wasn't kidding at all.
Clear and calm thinking is critical. Remember why the Samurai became so interested in Zen Buddhism--it gave them an advantage in combat by being able to think clearly and calmly in times of extreme stress. _________________
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I'm glad, kernull looks like he is gonna pop! (bad popcorn joke, I know)
