I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Since we're operating from the same mindset- are you planning on buying something during t1 and hobby farming until you have to switch over? Obviously if you wait too late and switch over once things get really dire, it will be very difficult to create a sustainable farm in a quick period of time.
This is why I am working on alternative t2 preps such as making inroads with farmers and developing my hunting/fishing skills while capitalizing on the t1 end of the oil boom to acquire cash that can be transferred into hard assets.
Ha ! Sounds like you have your own lottery plans going on !
It's always been one of my dreams too to have a small homestead and be someqwhat independent of the system. I grew up this way as my father knew which way things were going some 30 + years ago during the first oil crisis. I read 'Limits to Growth' when I was a teenager and 'got it' right away - have been looking for signs of trouble ever since.
I said from the beginning when I came to this site 3 years ago - either a lot of people are going to die as a result of all this - or they aren't.
As for my plans for acquiring a homestead ... my thinking is probably a bit different in this area as well. As we reach T2, T3, T4 either things are going to be REALLY bad or they're not. If they are REALLY bad, a small farm is going to be nothing more than a nice juicy fat target. If things are not that bad a small farm will be useful, but not terribly necessary.
For me the usefulness of a homestead & skills is primarily for AFTER a population reduction - not before - i.e. you should be homesteading now to LEARN as many skills as possible - but don't delude yourself into thinking that you will be allowed to keep all the STUFF that you have built up over the next 10 to 15 years. What can't be taken away from you (as long as you are alive) is knowledge and abilities.
So my homestead plan is to get a place allowing me to LEARN a bunch of things - and have some privacy to store a few things.
My best guess is that the whole point of the crossover from T1 to T2 (whenever that is) is going to be that people are going to be forced to choose a place to make their stand. By the end of T2 I think there will be no choices left. That goes for me as well as everyone else.
I think we see three viewpoints here : try to pull it off urban style (Thuja), try to pull it off rural style (Pops) and playing it by ear and switching between the two as the need arises (kochevnik).
Choosing a plan is like choosing a pair of pants - one size will not fit all. I know what my areas of strengths are, what my weaknesses are and have my own unique idea of what the future could bring.
I used to have along time girlfriend whose main operating mode was to try to preserve the status quo. Didn't want to move, didn't want to change jobs, didn't want to get married - and what I told her is that all the time she was REFUSING to make decisions about her life, the universe was making those decisions FOR her by default. And in the end that's exactly what happened. She lost her job (company went under) and me (I got tired of standing still).
The best thing about the people here is that most of us are making plans - and ANY plan is going to be much better than not having a plan at all - which is the boat that 99.99 percent of your fellow citizens are going to be in as we pass thru T1234.
Having a bad plan will be more useful than having no plan.
Well I don't know if any plan is better than no plan...how about if I planned to move out to the desert to be far away from the nuclear bombs and I died of dehydration?
But I do agree that there are multiple ways to deal with the coming times- some plans will definitely work better than others-
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6976 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:25 am Post subject:
I guess a thread running through this thread is the return of interdependence between town folks and those in the country.
In a world with less long distance transport, small timers like me will need access to local markets and vice versa. Thuja is fostering ties with local farmers and promoting the farmers market and helping out a friend on the coast. At the same time I’m attempting to sell a few things at the roadside and may even give the local farmers market a try next year – the town is only about 4k pop. but only 5 miles away; reachable in most any scenario.
One big problem that I missed in the corner of my acrylic ball is that the rush for Energy Independence has and will continue to make farmland more and more expensive. Going forward, the price of farmland will be more and more closely tied to the price of fuel crops, which of course will be tied to the price of petroleum – especially as the supply becomes constrained. This poses problems for both the townie and the potential plowboy.
Too, I can imagine that the demand for bigger fields and fewer fences will cause an even further reduction in small farms, possibly more than the subdividing that has been going on for years. In my area where 80ac fields are about the max and some places are mostly rock (my 2 feet of silt-loam topsoil is the exception and not the rule ) the price of open land has doubled in the last 4-5 years. Granted that has a lot to do with foreigners (like me) moving in and townies moving out but I see lots of fields going into corn this year that had been wheat, beans, alfalfa and even pasture in years past.
I suppose my conclusion is that supporting your local guy today is more important than ever; whether it is the independent butcher shop, farmers market, CSA, or whatever.
P.S. thanks again for everyone’s input and keeping the discussion civil. Any other ideas out there? _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1259 Location: Off with the Fey Folk
Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:29 am Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
Ebyss wrote:
Thanks JPL, I've heard of that book and it sounds great. I'll see if I can pick it up locally, if not, good 'ol Amazon should do it.
Pops, I've seen it done on River Cottage (self sufficiency program in the UK) and have coveted just such a hedge. It'll take a while to grow them trees though, as JPL says.
Hi Ebyss
Ah, I'm using willow for hedging because it has a phenominal growth rate ;o)
Here is a picture of one of the new hedges. These were cut 'live' from the willow stand at the top of the picture. The oval shows a tree that was cut to the ground (coppiced) 4 years ago. You can see the height it has already reached.
The sticks were put in last November and I have put a line showing the extent of the new growth - about 12 inches so far.
The idea of this hedge its that it will be a North-wind windbreak for the pond & duck-house on the left - also a (partial!) fox barrier.
Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2007 9:08 am Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
That is a fantastic amount of growth for only 4 years! Good old willow trees, practical and beautiful. Do they need damp/wet ground (which I have in abundance during the winter) or will they make a go of it in most soils?
Also - how well do the trees grow given the really high winds we currently get? That is, although they will be a wonderful windbreak when they're big, does it prevent them from growing well?
Quote:
will continue to make farmland more and more expensive.
This is something I was worried about too, but, in the short term, before people realise what's really going on, I reckon we'll see housing and land prices fall quite dramatically - including farms. This is the time to cash in if you haven't already.
I reckon in about two/three years a lot of people will be selling their second "holiday home" in the countryside as money gets tight. You have to be ready to jump on these when they come up. After this period, people will suss out that having room for food growing will be of paramount importance and the price will skyrocket. I am almost hoping that the price will drop dramatically, as maybe my neighbours would be willing to sell me some of theirs if they are still having to pay a mortgage. Land is at a premium around here right now, but I would like to own more. I've put some money away in the hope that it will become a wee bit cheaper in a few years. _________________ We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.
I am only one. I can only do what one can do. But what one can do, I will do. -- John Seymour.
Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2007 10:54 am Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
Normally with willow trees you can just cut a section of branch and stick it in the ground in early Spring and end up with a tree. Look for a section about 1/2" thick, perhaps 2' long. Stick it a foot into the ground with a foot above ground (sorry rest of world too early in the morning for conversions) making sure there's at least 3-4 bud sites sticking out of the ground.
At least where I live 99 percent of the time you'll have a 10' tree in a couple of years. They like water and if you have a septic system their roots will grow into a septic drain field and destroy it. If you're on sewer and your sewer line leaks they'll follow the leak back to the source of water and clog it, so be careful where you plant them.
Personally we're trying to walk between these two paths. We have a small piece of land, about 2.5 acres, in a small town of 1500 people. The town provides employment for me, good salary and benefits for a rural area, we sell at the local farmers market, my wife has a couple of internet businesses that bring in good money and I do computer support for locals in what little spare time I have. We run a few sheep, keep about 20 chickens, have around 50 fruit trees, couple large gardens and right now I'm working on a 24' x 48' greenhouse which will provide a lot of winter food in this mild climate (western Oregon). I HATE the fact that we don't have woodlot, but we're surrounded by miles after mile of forest, so in the worst case scenario there's plenty of wood nearby, just have to get it here from 1/2 mile or mile away and in this climate we wouldn't freeze without heat, we'd just be uncomfortable.
My kids and their friends (20-25 years old) are peak oil aware and would like to have a big piece of land in the hills, so trying to hit the lottery to buy a farm in the Coast Range and start my own little commune, don't know if there will be enough time, but at the least know a lot of good young folks with survival skills and good heads who know that our place is a spot they can come if needed. As I'm getting older and feebler that's an important part of my plans as I cant beging to do the work I did when younger. In our 20's my wife and I bought land and did the homesteading thing in the Ozarks, so I do have an understanding of just how much work is involved in actually trying to feed and heat yourself, and also understand you better have a few years to make the transition and figure out what you're doing because you're going to make a lot of bad mistakes as you get started.
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1259 Location: Off with the Fey Folk
Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:40 pm Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
Ebyss wrote:
That is a fantastic amount of growth for only 4 years! Good old willow trees, practical and beautiful. Do they need damp/wet ground (which I have in abundance during the winter) or will they make a go of it in most soils?
Also - how well do the trees grow given the really high winds we currently get? That is, although they will be a wonderful windbreak when they're big, does it prevent them from growing well?
Hi Ebyss.
Willow thrives in wet ground but I have also seen it grow just about anywhere. However our soil is very wet & does seem to thrive.
I grew up in Cornwall, England and willow was one of the few trees that would grow close to the sea, a very windy and salt-laden place. However it can be very low-growing & stunted in such a situation.
In Ireland I would imagine you have the same issue - I would thus plant several 'layers' of trees and the ones at the front would take the brunt, the ones at the back would be the 'real' windbreak.
Also in Cornwall we used to plant an obscure tree called, if I remember correctly, Macracapa, which is a huge evergreen (150 ft plus when mature) which thrives on poor soils and also shrugs off both any amount of salt & wind. I think it's a native of New Zealand so it might be difficult to get hold of. Incredible sight when mature, though. Makes even an old Beech or Oak look like a shrub.
Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:56 pm Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
JPL that's really helpful, thank you. This winter (just gone) we had pretty much 4 months of solid rain, and at times seriously heavy winds. There were trees down in the local forest and part of my barn roof blew off. Our ditches worked well for the most part, but flooded in certain areas. I'm wondering if it's a good idea to plant my willow windbreak in the ditch, which would be ideal for me, it would be protected from the livestock and the ditch is along the border where the windbreak is most needed. The willow would hopefully soak up some of the excess water too. We're inland, so no salt. _________________ We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.
I am only one. I can only do what one can do. But what one can do, I will do. -- John Seymour.
Last edited by Ebyss on Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1259 Location: Off with the Fey Folk
Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2007 4:56 pm Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
topcat wrote:
JPL -- Did you do anything other than just cut them and stick them in the ground? How often did/do you water them or is your ground wet?
Hi topcat,
I think bobaloo has pretty well covered it & the method he's described is basically what we've used. The ground is wet & I have no plans to water them, otherwise I would be doing nothing else!
A couple of points I would make though, I 'would' advise against planting in spring because the ones we planted in late Fall have made much better growth than the ones put in in Feb/March. I think this is because they had more time to establish a root-system?
Also I would advise a mulch. The hedge in the photo has one done with grass-cuttings but you can also use black plastic as a time-saver (if you are that way inclined...). I understand that grass etc. will strangle the young roots if left to it's own devices.
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