I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sat May 24, 2008 2:03 am Post subject: rule number one DON'T PANIC
Just thought I'd state the most important rule one should remember when faced with a difficult or unexpected situation such as peak oil. Basically if you panic, you die! So DON'T PANIC!
The DON'T PANIC rule was one of most important things I remember being taught by a flight instructor who had a more than a few exciting moments over the sky back in Viet Nam. The same DON'T PANIC rule was also taught to me when I took a basic wildnerness survival course.
Yeah I know it sounds kinda trite, to say "don't panic" but if you panic you're more apt to do dumb things.
The second rule after "don't panic" is assess your current situation and be honest with yourself, in other words try and really understand the problem you face. Only when you fully understand the problem can you figure out a solution.
I know I mentioned this in another thread in this section, but realize that in the grand scheme of things anyone who has access to the world wide web is pretty darn lucky and rich when ya compare yourself to some really poor person in some third world slum than has to live on only a few bucks at most a day. You have to realize that most people in the world don't own a car, or have running water in their homes or reliable electricity for a TV or fridge. Basically if you own a car, have indoor plumbing, and reliable electricity, you're better off than 5/6 of humanity.
Please, don't bitch about the slight increase in the cost of gas, its a minor problem in the grand scheme of things. For example here in the USA we only pay about 15% of income on food, and 2/3 of the american population would be considered fat! Yet in many parts of the third world people pay upwards of 50% of incomes and still starve. And I just read in last week financial times that the average american only spends about 6% on gas
one last thought about gas prices, the following quote is something I saved from an article a few years ago, but it should give ya a general idea about gas prices not being your biggest expense.
Runzheimer International, a specialized consulting firm which does research to determining costs, broke down, by percentage, the costs of operating an automobile. Their findings, gasoline is NOT your biggest expense! The following breakdown is a general case summary of "Automobile Driving Costs," which assumes ownership of 5 years or 75,000 miles before replacement.
“American drivers often seem fixated on prices at the pump because it is such a visible portion of the total car expense,” said Larry Snyder, a VP at the consulting firm, Runzheimer International. “Depreciation and financing are a much larger expense, and insurance now consumes nearly the same amount of your automotive dollar as gas.”
_________________ "I'm 100% sure that unsustainable conspicuous consumption of natural basic resources will eventually lead to a proverbial hell on earth for those people who get stuck with the mismanagement mess of mankind not being stewards of the environment!"
Last edited by phaster on Tue May 27, 2008 2:43 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sat May 24, 2008 4:30 am Post subject: Re: rule number one DON'T PANIC
Tell that to a rabbit caught in headlights. Said rabbit would improve his situation considerably by simply panicking and getting the h*ll out of the place asap.
Joined: May 05, 2008 Posts: 34 Location: The field
Posted: Sat May 24, 2008 6:34 am Post subject: Re: rule number one DON'T PANIC
That article downplays the relative cost of gasoline for us po' folx. For instance, I have a used car my mother gave me. The tires are bald and need to be replaced, I bought them 50k miles ago for $400.00, 5 years ago, for a cost of $7/month. I spend about $200 on gas a month. Minimum liability insurance is about $500 per year, for a cost of $40 per month. I don't maintain the car well- none of the windows roll down, and pretty much just change the oil, spark plugs, and transmission fluid every 50000 miles, by myself, at a cost of $4 per month. This totals about $251/month...
Posted: Sat May 24, 2008 6:38 am Post subject: Re: rule number one DON'T PANIC
i even don't panic
everything of my car (with ~30.000km included) costs me in north italy 5800 euro, of which 2300 is fuelcost;
and i don't how it is in USA but here in europe there is also a lot of spending to improve public transportation,
we had a very shitty trains, now with the new trains we cut travel time by 10-15% and improve the quality, cutting also cost of maintance by 30%
and i lived also in munich, a city with very good public transportations and a lot friends there don't even use the car !
they just don't need it, for short travel they use the bike or UBahn, and for long travels trains or airplane ...
Joined: Sep 04, 2005 Posts: 441 Location: central MA, USA
Posted: Sat May 24, 2008 6:40 am Post subject: Re: rule number one DON'T PANIC
MacG wrote:
Tell that to a rabbit caught in headlights. Said rabbit would improve his situation considerably by simply panicking and getting the h*ll out of the place asap.
No, panicking means running blindly. Trying to run up the road away from the headlights will get the rabbit squashed.
Not panicking means knowing to get off the road. Not panicking doesn't mean no adrenaline and no action.
Posted: Sat May 24, 2008 2:32 pm Post subject: Re: rule number one DON'T PANIC
Mettezz wrote:
There is always hope ^^
"There is hope, but not for us." - Franz Kafka _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Joined: Nov 20, 2004 Posts: 159 Location: Land of the Tonkawa/Karankawa
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 1:30 am Post subject: Re: rule number one DON'T PANIC
... but if you find yourself panicking and frankly can't get un-stuck from panic-mode ...
At least do your best to take no important ACTIONS while panicked. I agree with Phaster that they will probably be dumb actions.
Just take care of your day-to-day issues, focus on relaxing, taking it easy, giving yourself time to digest the information ... and then return to making large decisions when you're back to a more relaxed state.
I just really wanted to say this because I think that if someone gets PO then they probably WILL panic. There are a bunch of new people currently arriving at the site, and quite probably in panic-mode. I'd rather not compound their issue by telling them not to panic, and that they're going to die because they're panicking.
I spent many weeks in a panic after I found out about PO years ago ... and I'm not dead yet. I do cringe thinking about the types of things I was considering doing whilst in a panic. The crazy bugout plans I had, and the desperate things I was prepared to do with my family's future ... but I think it's a completely understandable and acceptable first reaction to learning about PO. _________________ Collapse-prep Intentional Community forming outside of Austin, TX. PM me if interested.
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 3:19 am Post subject: Re: rule number one DON'T PANIC
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Mettezz wrote:
There is always hope ^^
"There is hope, but not for us." - Franz Kafka
We all painic, its just human nature! But with this post I'm just trying to remind people that often times you can dig the hole deeper if you panic.
Please noticed that I also had a second rule, after "don't panic" and that was to understand the nature of the problem. This is something I had to do in physics, basically in any physics problem set, in order to find a solution ya need to understand the problem.
Give ya another example, in wilderness medicine that I was taught. I'm not a medical doctor, but I was taught in a survival course that if an individual has an accident, remove the individual from the immediate harm. But if there is no immediate harm, keep the person immobilized because it possible to cause more harm by moving a person who has a spinal injury. It was also emphasized to me that it was important to try and keep an injured person's spirit up.
Basically if you as a care giver don't have a positive attitude, your patients mental health and will to live is greatly diminished...
In this election year, we as a nation are worried about the economy because of the "subprime" crisis and also are divided on what to do with our military troops in Iraq. Sadly, these self inflicted wounds which were cause in part by panic of missing the economic boat, and panic of not understanding the politics of terrorism. I knew long ago that these issues could have been avoided if political and business leaders, along with the general public invoked the simple management philosophy of recognizing pride, ignorance, greed and fear do exist and should be addressed head on, when a problem or mistake is small and manageable.
Don't have anything else to say right now except, I'm of the opinion that peak oil like any unexpected bump in the road of life is just another challange to adapt or die! And I sure as hell am not ready to cash it all in, as the character thurston howell on gilligan's island use to say..... "I'm too rich to die" _________________ "I'm 100% sure that unsustainable conspicuous consumption of natural basic resources will eventually lead to a proverbial hell on earth for those people who get stuck with the mismanagement mess of mankind not being stewards of the environment!"
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1371 Location: East Texas
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:20 am Post subject: Re: rule number one DON'T PANIC
MacG wrote:
Tell that to a rabbit caught in headlights. Said rabbit would improve his situation considerably by simply panicking and getting the h*ll out of the place asap.
The panic'ed rabbit has good odds of running right into the tires of the car.
The ice-cold rabbit maybe moves less.. but moves well. and lives. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
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