Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 2:37 pm Post subject: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
I believe that oil reserves are increasing and the price increases are created by speculators on Wall Street who are creating an oil price bubble and collapse similar to the sub prime bubble. Here is some evidence:
In April this year, Saudi Arabia's Khursaniyah oilfield began pumping and will soon add another 500,000 bpd to world oil supply of high grade Arabian light crude. In addition, the country's Khurais oilfield development, the largest of Saudi Aramco's projects, will boost the production capacity of Saudi oilfields from 11.3 million bpd to 12.5 million bpd by 2009. Khurais is planned to add another 1.2 million bpd of high-quality Arabian light crude to Saudi Arabia's export capacity.
Brazil's Petrobras is exploiting newly confirmed oil reserves offshore in its Tupi field that could be as great or greater than the North Sea. Petrobras says the new ultra-deep Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light crude. When online in a few years it is expected to put Brazil among the world's "top 10" oil producers, between Nigeria and those of Venezuela.
The the US Geological Survey (USGS)recently issued a report that confirmed major new oil reserves in an area called the Bakken, which stretches across North Dakota, Montana and south-eastern Saskatchewan. The USGS estimates up to 3.65 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken.
Iraq, is believed to hold oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia while much of the world has yet to be explored for oil.
I believe that the major problem faced by Big Oil is not finding replacement oil but keeping the lid on world oil finds in order to maintain present exorbitant prices.
Just watch for the recent speculative oil price bubble created by Wall Street manipulators to pop in the near future.
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 2:47 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer wrote:
I believe that the major problem faced by Big Oil is not finding replacement oil but keeping the lid on world oil finds in order to maintain present exorbitant prices.
Just watch for the recent speculative oil price bubble created by Wall Street manipulators to pop in the near future.
You sir, are going to have some FUN around here! _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
If you are going to directly quote someone... say William Engdahl, who penned those exact words, please attribute accordingly. Anyone can cut and paste.
Thanks. _________________ "Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 3:15 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer wrote:
I believe that .
You can believe what you like my friend, reality may not oblige however.
A few million extra barrels per day here and there is nothing in the grand scheme of things. We lose 4 million barrel a day capacity per year from depleting wells and demand is growing by 1.5-2 million barrels a day per year. Production has been essentially flat for 4 years despite record prices. Peak oil is here or will be here soon. We can only hope the down slope is moderate but you should prepare for the worst.
MANAMA (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's Khursaniyah oilfield expansion project is not yet pumping, but large parts of its 500,000 barrels per day capacity are ready, an official at state oil giant Saudi Aramco said on Sunday.
The world's top oil exporter had planned to bring Khursaniyah online in December. The expansion is the largest single boost to global oil capacity for several years.
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 4:12 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
NorseNomad wrote:
Be a good boy now, and don't rain on people's apocalypse :D
My my... four whole posts and already an expert on the level of awareness at this site...
A LARGE percentage of the membership here is QUITE well-informed about most, if not all of the complex interlocking issues revolving around the main issue of peak oil. Their doomerism is well-founded, so I'd spend a couple YEARS or so (as many of us have done) researching these things beyond the disinformation propagated by the mainstream media before deciding to cast your disparagement about... _________________ "It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
Joined: Apr 11, 2005 Posts: 72 Location: Sin City, NV
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 4:15 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
TWilliam wrote:
NorseNomad wrote:
Be a good boy now, and don't rain on people's apocalypse :D
My my... four whole posts and already an expert on the level of awareness at this site...
A LARGE percentage of the membership here is QUITE well-informed about most, if not all of the complex interlocking issues revolving around the main issue of peak oil. Their doomerism is well-founded, so I'd spend a couple YEARS or so (as many of us have done) researching these things beyond the disinformation propagated by the mainstream media before deciding to cast your disparagement about...
Agreed. Very well said. _________________ " Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary"
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 830 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 4:21 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Welcome Geomancer. Per your first post, you’re where I was at about 5 years ago when I first stumbled upon the reality of world Peak Oil production. I'm old enough to have come of age during the first oil crisis of 1973 and had always had my ear to the ground on the subject of energy supply. I knew the problem could come back, and boy did it.
Most of your statements are going to be dismissed out right by long time readers of the site, and for good reason. Not even deserving a response. But I'll just point out one below.
Geomancer wrote:
Brazil's Petrobras is exploiting newly confirmed oil reserves offshore in its Tupi field that could be as great or greater than the North Sea. Petrobras says the new ultra-deep Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light crude. When online in a few years it is expected to put Brazil among the world's "top 10" oil producers, between Nigeria and those of Venezuela.
The Brazilian Tupi is not as "great or greater" than the North Sea field when it was discovered (30 billion), it's not even a third the size. This field, while one of the largest found this decade will not in any way make up for a field like Mexico's Cantarell, the second largest ever found, which is in terminal collapse now.
I would suggest several books to put on your reading list as starters:
'TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT' -MATTHEW SIMMONS
'HUBBERT'S PEAK: THE IMPENDING WORLD OIL SHORTAGE'
-KENNETH DEFFEYS
'THE PARTY'S OVER: OIL, WAR ANDTHE FATE OF INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY'-RICHARD HEINBERG
'OUT OF GAS: THE END OF THE AGE OF OIL' -DAVID GOODSTEIN _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1011 Location: was rwwff
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 4:25 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Seconded Killjoy... though without the ..um, colorful language.
Reserves are not particularly meaningful, oil is leaving $100 going to $150 / bbl; what on Earth would producers be waiting for to DELIVER from reserves everything they can.
Oil companies are filled with execs who remember long stretches of very low prices; they probably have lackies running with squeegies to every empty storage barrel and tanker they've got!
No, they're at full throttle; all the reserves in the world can't improve the flow rate, and the flow rate is now less than what people would like to consume at most possible price points.
This isn't the 1900's when someone with a shovel and a hand pump could strike oil; this is an engineering limitation of how long does it take to build facilities that can deliver any meaningful extra flow; and is it even possible to now get the flow rate back ahead of the curve. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 830 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 4:37 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer, try and ignore the harsh criticism above. Continue reading on this subject and make your self informed. It's important everyone knows about Peak Oil. Everyone on this site was once where you are now. The difference between ignorance and stupidity, ignorance can be cured. _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 5:11 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
I'm sorry for talking like a dick.
But you see my point.
I hope.
Remember, too, that Deffeyes' calculation for peak takes into account 150 billion barrels of undiscovered oil "to get down the other side of the peak in time."
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Actually Silent Todd, I was never like the OP.
I never thought about oil until I stumbled across LATOC. Then I read that a few times, curious but not convinced.
Then, after more thought, I came to the conclusions presented there.
I never went through a "it's BIG OIL f---ing with us" stage of denial and fantasy.
The OP is a DSE type I - "Big Oil"
and DSE type II - "Speculation" _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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