How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 8:12 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer wrote:
I believe that oil reserves are increasing and the price increases are created by speculators on Wall Street who are creating an oil price bubble and collapse similar to the sub prime bubble.
Since half of the "oil speculators" are shorting oil, I don't think that argument holds water. They are following the trend, not setting it.
Quote:
Iraq, is believed to hold oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia while much of the world has yet to be explored for oil.
Much of the world has yet to be explored for oil?
Not.
Quote:
I believe that the major problem faced by Big Oil is not finding replacement oil but keeping the lid on world oil finds in order to maintain present exorbitant prices.
Roughly 20 per cent of global reserves are held by the multinationals (Big Oil) , while 80 per cent are held by national oil companies, mainly state-owned in asset-rich countries, such as Saudi Aramco or the National Iranian Oil Company
Quote:
Just watch for the recent speculative oil price bubble created by Wall Street manipulators to pop in the near future.
If it pops then only the "long" "manipulators" lose. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 9:37 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Twilight wrote:
Geomancer wrote:
I believe that oil reserves are increasing
You can believe what you like, the world has been eating into reserves since 1981 - net negative additions.
Perhaps the problem is you have searched for information that supports your conclusion rather than checking whether it is based on a correct premise.
So you are bashing a guy for noticing the following.....global consumption between 1980 and 2006 was approx 687 BBO.
Additions to reserves according to the EIA during that exact same time frame are......643 BBO!!!!
WHAT!!!! Quick...its time....to...DO THE MATH!!!
We started with about 600BBO of reserves in 1980, produced ALL of them and then some, but only replaced them with 94% of consumption!!!! So there is your net decrease spread over the time period in question.
It took 26 years to do this, so some quickie math says that at a net decrease of 0.2% per year of available reserves, that it would take 500 years before the reserves hits 0 BBO!!!
Wow...and here I was worried about running out soon! _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:02 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer wrote:
I believe that oil reserves are increasing and the price increases are created by speculators on Wall Street who are creating an oil price bubble and collapse similar to the sub prime bubble.
Wow, the AP story sure has brought the gibbering idiots into the fold . . . _________________ http://www.peakoil.org
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:03 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
KillTheHumans wrote:
Twilight wrote:
Geomancer wrote:
I believe that oil reserves are increasing
You can believe what you like, the world has been eating into reserves since 1981 - net negative additions.
Perhaps the problem is you have searched for information that supports your conclusion rather than checking whether it is based on a correct premise.
So you are bashing a guy for noticing the following.....global consumption between 1980 and 2006 was approx 687 BBO.
Additions to reserves according to the EIA during that exact same time frame are......643 BBO!!!!
WHAT!!!! Quick...its time....to...DO THE MATH!!!
We started with about 600BBO of reserves in 1980, produced ALL of them and then some, but only replaced them with 94% of consumption!!!! So there is your net decrease spread over the time period in question.
It took 26 years to do this, so some quickie math says that at a net decrease of 0.2% per year of available reserves, that it would take 500 years before the reserves hits 0 BBO!!!
Wow...and here I was worried about running out soon!
OMG. What in the hell are you talking about?
Reserves mean absolutely nothing. Just speculative numbers on paper until it is pulled out of the ground and used.
The world doesn't have to 'run out' of oil to collapse the current infrastructure. Even an oil shortage of just 5% would probably cause massive disruptions, shortages, and rationing. Stop making idiotic statements about things that you know nothing about.
Last edited by Hogan on Mon May 26, 2008 10:09 pm; edited 2 times in total
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2497 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:05 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
MattSavinar wrote:
Geomancer wrote:
I believe that oil reserves are increasing and the price increases are created by speculators on Wall Street who are creating an oil price bubble and collapse similar to the sub prime bubble.
Wow, the AP story sure has brought the gibbering idiots into the fold . . .
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:13 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
MattSavinar wrote:
Geomancer wrote:
I believe that oil reserves are increasing and the price increases are created by speculators on Wall Street who are creating an oil price bubble and collapse similar to the sub prime bubble.
Wow, the AP story sure has brought the gibbering idiots into the fold . . .
So go away, the average IQ of this joint will jump 50 points.... _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:23 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Drifter wrote:
KillTheHumans wrote:
Wow...and here I was worried about running out soon!
OMG. What in the hell are you talking about?
Reserves mean absolutely nothing. Just speculative numbers on paper until it is pulled out of the ground and used.
To you maybe. But when a bank lends you money based on a professional estimate of their quantity, sounds like SOMEONE thinks they have a value.
Drifter wrote:
The world doesn't have to 'run out' of oil to collapse the current infrastructure.
Well, thats what people keep saying....and here we are, ever since light sweet crude peaked in 2005, still waiting to use those cannabalization recipes dreamed up by the more creative around here.
PS: I've just recently learned how important some of these subgroups are, and am still learning exactly how these subdivisions relate to Hubbert and his original work, which seemed to include nearly everything but didn't break out peaks based on API gravity.
Drifter wrote:
Even an oil shortage of just 5% would probably cause massive disruptions, shortages, and rationing. Stop making idiotic statements about things that you know nothing about.
I stated facts obtained from the EIA website and did a calculation on them. Refute the EIA all you'd like, its their information. _________________ Freddy RULZ!
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) (or bankers) (or web "experts")
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5348 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:35 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
KillTheHumans wrote:
Well, thats what people keep saying....and here we are, ever since light sweet crude peaked in 2005, still waiting to use those cannabalization recipes dreamed up by the more creative around here.
I'd like you to name one leading person in PO movement that said there would be cannabalization starting in 2005.
Well I'll save you the trouble - no one.
You have a lot of nerve complaining about others when you can't even get the basic facts straight.
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 10:47 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
KillTheHumans wrote:
I stated facts obtained from the EIA website and did a calculation on them. Refute the EIA all you'd like, its their information.
Is it their information?
Or are they reproducing spurious claims while not in a position to express an opinion regarding their accuracy, hiding behind good faith to avoid meddling in politically sensitive matters extending far outside their remit?
It is reasonable to assume oil production figures obtained there and elsewhere are quite accurate.
But the accuracy of reserve additions depend heavily on definition - do we count Canadian tar and Venezuelan heavy crude additions or not, do we accept at face value OPEC's massive overnight increases followed by perfect replenishment or not, and so on. Accounting methods replace reserves only on paper. The figure you quoted is unrealistically large and a detailed breakdown will probably reveal changes in accounting treatment without anything in particular happening on the ground.
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geesh, some of you are so rude to 'newbies'(not just this one). I thought the point of this site was to educate people, not scare them away before you even get the chance.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2791 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 11:53 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
KillTheHumans wrote:
So you are bashing a guy for noticing the following.....global consumption between 1980 and 2006 was approx 687 BBO.
Additions to reserves according to the EIA during that exact same time frame are......643 BBO!!!!
Is it Kool Aid that made your avatar turn blue green?
Not even going to detail why your reserves are almost entirely spurious paper fabrications. This sort of thing needs to be built into primers or FAQs; your presenting them here as solid fact when you know the opposing arguments just fine should be grounds enough for the Mods to ban you, if only temporarily. You don't really think you're going to spew this kind of dribble around do you, RGR?
JustaGirl wrote:
Geesh, some of you are so rude to 'newbies'(not just this one). I thought the point of this site was to educate people, not scare them away before you even get the chance.
KillTheHumans is just a troll who was banned in a previous incarnation. Some people around here are a bit abrupt, but that's life. So many of the instant fixes that the public is cheering for really deserve nothing but scorn.
Plenty of people here are nice as pie. I vacillate between that and being a snide prick. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Walter, there is an unspoken message here.
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 12:24 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
JustaGirl wrote:
Geesh, some of you are so rude to 'newbies'(not just this one). I thought the point of this site was to educate people, not scare them away before you even get the chance.
What's rude is people joining this site because they read some article in a newspaper, thinking they're just going to start telling everyone here 'how it REALLY is' when they've done little or no research beyond what they've been spoon fed by the mainstream media, or what they've gleaned from the half-drunken blithering of the resident know-it-all at their favorite watering hole.
Not saying you're necessarily one of these JustaGirl (welcome to the site by the way), but most of the people that have been members here for any length of time HAVE actually explored this issue at length, and from many different angles, and while granted it may be true that, as the saying goes, "you catch more flies with a spoon of honey than you do with a gallon of vinegar", the fact is that we've heard, and have explored in depth, just about every variety of "all we have to do is [insert favorite insta-fix here]" and "the REAL reason for high oil prices is because of [insert favorite villain(s) here]", and some have lost patience with endlessly walking people through the same stuff again and again and again, which is why they generally get pointed towards the threads where the particular topic has already been addressed.
We tend to baptize in fire, and if someone is unwilling to don their flame-proof undies (meaning reading up first) before they jump into the fray, they'll likely get cooked rather quickly. It's nothing personal really; it's just that many here sincerely feel that the time for polite hand-holding is well past, and that John Q. Public is now overdue for a hard slap in the face (which is coming by the way, and not from folks here believe me). _________________ "It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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