Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1988 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Judgie wrote:
You have plenty of water now. In the future you may not. The wildcard is climate change.
I don't wish to dismiss climate change but "official" estimates of the effects in New Zealand seem to leave us with roughly the same amount of rainfall overall, though the will be some serious regional differences. As New Zealand already has a reasonably high rainfall, overall, and a very small population, I don't think that fresh water will be a problem. Unless tens of millions of refugees arrive on our doorstep.
Joined: Jul 12, 2006 Posts: 87 Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Judgie wrote:
You have plenty of water now. In the future you may not. The wildcard is climate change.
As TonyPrep mentioned just above, New Zealand should still have plenty of water for the nation as a whole in the years ahead even with the effects of Global Warming. Current projections are that the west of the nation (already the wet side) will receive greater rainfall levels, the east of the nation (the dry side) will receive lesser rainfall levels. Overall, it should be about the same as now or perhaps a little more. Dramatic increase in demand may cause difficulties, depending on how high that demand goes, but otherwise we should be well-placed to meet both food and water needs of the entire New Zealand population in terms of available supply. The tricky parts will be affordability and distribution.
Personally, I would like to see greater self-reliance in both for those people who are able to raise their own food and collect their own water, but many of us will still be reliant upon the traditional farm-to-market distribution. For that, we may need to rely more on steam-powered trains and steamships or sailing ships in the short to medium term.
Joined: Sep 03, 2005 Posts: 75 Location: Germany, State M-V
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 10:57 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Temperedoil wrote:
Quote:
I have mentioned Peak Oil to a few of the customers. ...
a fruitless exercise somewhat akin to trying to start a fire with a block of water ice on a cloudy day.
That's sounds familiar to me. I tried that not with customers but with parents and my brother, i also write a mail to all my friends and my circle with the same result.
In Germany it is described like talking to a wall.
I think the best thing is to do something (better then arguing) which shows what is possible for everybody with his own limited resources:
You can build self-made thermal collectors from wood, glas and old tubes. From old car parts (dynamo/generator, wires, cone belt), wood (repeller, pole) you can build your own wind wheel. Dynamos from the scrap yards are much cheaper than solar modules with the same maximum power from elsewhere.
Houses can be constructed/better insulated with a framework of wood and walls made out of loam and straw (like in Middle Ages). Recently i tried to remove old cow dung (mixed with straw) on the floor in an old stable.
It's like trying to dig a hole into a concrete floor with chisel and hammer. I heard that it is even very difficult to moisten an old cow dung. So this would be a very good building material.
Wouldn't it be a great tourist attraction: a regular market with things to buy, build like in the Middle Ages or showing techniques from this time:
- plaited baskets
- forged cutlery
- self-made charcoal
- jewelry
- building houses out of wood and loam
- making barrels (only for wine understandable )
etc.
Joined: Sep 28, 2007 Posts: 22 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 3:59 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Getting back on track, I think one point needs to be made- there are still PLENTY of decent hydro sites. The Clyde Dam for instance was planned as part of a series of large dams downstream from one another. There are a lot of places on the West Coast where a small area could be taken from a national park and flooded for hydro use. While hydro is capital intensive, it is the BEST form of electricity generation by most measures. Geothermal falls down on its pollution (lots of arsenic and other heavy metals in that water!) and its scale- it's probably limited to 15-20% of total power.
Wind is still unproven imho- time will tell. 60% of the time the turbines actually generate very little power - this does not exactly seem a reliable power source.
The peak-oil aware Green party is no good on this either, they have turned against hydro power, instead promoting wishful thinking and good vibes which isn't much of an energy policy. They are against most schemes now since they saw how Project Aqua, a nice easy power scheme with virtually no negative impacts, could be stalled by NIMBYs and BANANAs, with a percieved environmental victory.
In fact it's sad that most environmentalists cannot see the importance of reliable electricity supply- it's far more important to the long term future of society than any immediate environmental concerns IMHO. If society crumbles then environmental concerns will be the first luxury to go post peak.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1988 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 4:23 am Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
electric_future wrote:
While hydro is capital intensive, it is the BEST form of electricity generation by most measures.
Which measures are those? It does seem to provide a fairly reliable source of power, although it is vulnerable to long drought periods, that can significantly reduce water levels. However, it does destroy habitats, reduces available water downstream, alters flood and silting patterns, and silting can reduce its effectiveness over time.
electric_future wrote:
In fact it's sad that most environmentalists cannot see the importance of reliable electricity supply- it's far more important to the long term future of society than any immediate environmental concerns IMHO. If society crumbles then environmental concerns will be the first luxury to go post peak.
Why? Our habitat is far more important that a reliable electricity supply. If we can't survive here, it doesn't matter how much electricity is being produced. So maintaining a livable environment must be the number one concern. Having said that, what makes you think we need to increase the electricity supply or that what we have now with renewables is not sufficient for a sustainable society?
Joined: Apr 16, 2008 Posts: 40 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 2:51 pm Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Spot prices are averaging $270 mwh, but are reaching $500 in the SI at peaks, hedge prices are up around $280 mwh, retail prices are still 19 cents a kwh which is $190 mwh, so electricity retailers who haven't got enough generation of their own are having to top up their demand on the spot market and are making a big loss. Expect to see ads on TV any day that ask users to save 10%. _________________ "I'm here to fight for truth, and justice, and the American way" - Superman
Moped
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: power cuts this winter?
Moped wrote:
Expect to see ads on TV any day that ask users to save 10%.
Yup. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto is threatening to pack up its toys and go home if the emissions trading scheme makes its electricity any less dirt cheap than it is presently(even tho they use 13% of our national supply we're not allowed to know just how massive the discount is that they receive).
Nice sig line btw Moped..."I used to crash parties and Maseratis..."
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understandable )
