I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 10:34 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer wrote:
I believe the world has three unlimited supplies: Taxes, garbage and ignorance .javascript:emoticon('')
Yes well... I'm certainly seeing plenty of evidence of the last anyway...
Seriously tho', my original question was earnest. I've noticed that just about every time someone brings up the idea of 'garbage-into-fuel' and/or its assorted variations (such as 'food-into-fuel') as a 'solution' to declining oil production, they almost always manage to conveniently overlook the fact that our massive amounts of garbage are a direct byproduct of our massive consumption of mainly OIL. They either ignore, or are oblivious to the fact that less oil feedstock means LESS GARBAGE.
It's essentially the same problem with all so-called alternatives: they are, in fact, DERIVATIVES of cheap and abundant petroleum. They're not really ALTERNATIVES at all. Virtually all of these 'alternative' technologies rely on OIL for their fabrication and deployment, and as it gets scarcer and more expensive, they will likewise become increasingly expensive and less available for widespread use. _________________ "It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
Posted: Wed May 28, 2008 11:44 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
TWilliam wrote:
Geomancer wrote:
I believe the world has three unlimited supplies: Taxes, garbage and ignorance .javascript:emoticon('')
Yes well... I'm certainly seeing plenty of evidence of the last anyway...
Seriously tho', my original question was earnest. I've noticed that just about every time someone brings up the idea of 'garbage-into-fuel' and/or its assorted variations (such as 'food-into-fuel') as a 'solution' to declining oil production, they almost always manage to conveniently overlook the fact that our massive amounts of garbage are a direct byproduct of our massive consumption of mainly OIL. They either ignore, or are oblivious to the fact that less oil feedstock means LESS GARBAGE.
It's essentially the same problem with all so-called alternatives: they are, in fact, DERIVATIVES of cheap and abundant petroleum. They're not really ALTERNATIVES at all. Virtually all of these 'alternative' technologies rely on OIL for their fabrication and deployment, and as it gets scarcer and more expensive, they will likewise become increasingly expensive and less available for widespread use.
Quite seriously you should take a step back and consider that decaying plants and animals, as well as living organisms are organic matter and are not related to any oil produced. Household garbage may contain oil derived garbage but decaying food products are abundant,so are waste plants unusable for food or other utilization. One of the most lucrative sources of organic materials , however, are hazardous wastes which provide a major revenue source at the input of the process. I agree that there is a lot of waste product generated by oil and it is not properly utilized to recover the energy stored in it.
Noticed I have not even touched the largest source on earth - coal. My hands and arguments are clean.
Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 2:19 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer wrote:
Quite seriously you should take a step back and consider that decaying plants and animals, as well as living organisms are organic matter and are not related to any oil produced.
No, but they are related to something called a nutrient cycle. Such things need to be returned to the soil, not burned for energy generation.
Quote:
Household garbage may contain oil derived garbage but decaying food products are abundant,so are waste plants unusable for food or other utilization.
Ummm... I seem to recall that decaying food 'abundance' being a result of the so-called 'green revolution', which is a direct result of heavy petrochemical use. No petrochemicals, no 'abundant' food waste, firstly because it's doubtful the yields we currently enjoy will be maintainable without them, secondly because as they dwindle, returning that waste to the soil will become even more vital, thus reducing its availability for energy generation even further.
Quote:
One of the most lucrative sources of organic materials , however, are hazardous wastes which provide a major revenue source at the input of the process.
Somehow the idea of burning hazardous waste doesn't strike me as being particularly intelligent.
Quote:
Noticed I have not even touched the largest source on earth - coal.
Good thing. Like I said... uninhabitable planet, at least if we expect to use coal at anywhere near the level at which we currently use oil. _________________ "It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 8:45 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
JustaGirl wrote:
Geesh, some of you are so rude to 'newbies'(not just this one). I thought the point of this site was to educate people, not scare them away before you even get the chance.
Agreed, but its also best to do a bit of due diligence on ones own part before coming to an established forum and hopping in with a smile "Dont worry, we can do THIS!"
TWilliam wrote:
What's rude is people joining this site because they read some article in a newspaper, thinking they're just going to start telling everyone here 'how it REALLY is' when they've done little or no research beyond what they've been spoon fed by the mainstream media, or what they've gleaned from the half-drunken blithering of the resident know-it-all at their favorite watering hole.
Not saying you're necessarily one of these JustaGirl (welcome to the site by the way), but most of the people that have been members here for any length of time HAVE actually explored this issue at length, and from many different angles, and while granted it may be true that, as the saying goes, "you catch more flies with a spoon of honey than you do with a gallon of vinegar", the fact is that we've heard, and have explored in depth, just about every variety of "all we have to do is [insert favorite insta-fix here]" and "the REAL reason for high oil prices is because of [insert favorite villain(s) here]", and some have lost patience with endlessly walking people through the same stuff again and again and again, which is why they generally get pointed towards the threads where the particular topic has already been addressed.
We tend to baptize in fire, and if someone is unwilling to don their flame-proof undies (meaning reading up first) before they jump into the fray, they'll likely get cooked rather quickly. It's nothing personal really; it's just that many here sincerely feel that the time for polite hand-holding is well past, and that John Q. Public is now overdue for a hard slap in the face (which is coming by the way, and not from folks here believe me).
Well said! Do what I do, drink heavily. I find I'm much friendlier if I'm drunk. _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 12:09 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
Geomancer,
Please don't let some of the reviews of your thoughts turn you off to this site as well as others. You are trying to understand a very complex system. I've been a petroleum geologist for over 30 years and I have disagreements with my cohorts over such technical issues almost daily.
I'll offer one bit of advice regarding the supply issue: it's very easy to confuse reserves in the ground with production rates. For example, I know a bit about Petrobras' offshore projects. They may well eventually discover more oil than has been produced from the North Sea or many other very large plays. But reserves in the ground don't readily equate to production rates. I suspect you have some idea of the time lag for a deep water discovery to start producing (5 to 10 years is not uncommon). But regardless of that fact, maximum flow rates seldom exceed 500,000 bopd. And then declines can be very rapid. Most of the big deep water discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico have already declined more than 50% and will drop to relatively meaningless levels in another 5 years.
Just hang in there and develop a tough skin. I consider myself exceptionally smart and I've been wrong about a variety of matters as often as I've been right.
Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil
TWilliam wrote:
Geomancer wrote:
We have unlimited supply of organic materials suitable as feed material including, but not restricted to garbage, scrap tires, poisonous warfare agents, etc.
Building pyrolysis reactors is cheaper and faster than going for oil in its more difficult formations.
Ummm... I'm not particularly interested in the reserve growth debate right now, but I have to wonder. When this 'unlimited supply of organic materials suitable as feed' stock turns out to be NOT 'unlimited', since at least the ones you've named are all derived from a SHRINKING petroleum resource base, then what?
Oh wait, let me guess. Coal gasification, right?
*sigh*
Just exactly what part of UNINHABITABLE PLANET don't you people get?
Soylent black
ITS PEOPLE!
But it sure powers the car well.
_________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
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