Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 1:54 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
eastbay,
Most ships crossing oceans are delayed in days and not hours. Just want to put things in perspective that people who coordinate trans ocean ships do not worry about hours, but days.
I don't know what the statistics are, but quite a few ships leave port without buyers for the oil. I guess you can categorize them as shopping, but they don't have the ships sit offshore waiting for buyers. Normally, these ships will still unload and have oil sit in onshore storage waiting for buyers.
I know after Katrina, some ships sit offshore during storm seasons, but unaware of doing this for business reasons.
The idea that we have too much oil and no place to store it is simply not true for right now. Prices are high due to strong demand and weak supply. Speculators are just exploiting the supply tightness. Of course, if there are no speculators, then prices will not be this high, but they did not cause the supply constraints we are seeing.
Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 2:00 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Shouldn't any rise in inventories need to surpass last weeks shortfall to be officially called an inventory build? Time to turn on the fog lights! _________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:04 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
UncoveringTruths wrote:
Shouldn't any rise in inventories need to surpass last weeks shortfall to be officially called an inventory build? Time to turn on the fog lights!
That fog story was completely S.A.S propaganda !
Short Attention Span propaganda - sad thing is it seems to have worked! _________________ Nothing is more dangerous than a man with nothing left to lose but has everything left to gain.
Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:33 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
pup55 wrote:
Hello, Header_Rack. Good to get your voice on this.
Rest of forum: Header_rack works out there. Better listen to him.
Thanks pup.
I do have a tid bit of information for ya. Thunderhorse will be bringing in first oil next week. Our crews were told to vacate to make room for other companies going out to get it set up. Finaly after all this time and cost running over 1 million a day to operate they will start to show some return. _________________ Nothing is more dangerous than a man with nothing left to lose but has everything left to gain.
Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 7:20 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
The U.S. Energy Department will probably say later today that gasoline inventories increased 825,000 barrels last week from 206.2 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 9:00 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
A Dow Jones Newswires survey of 14 analysts found an average forecast of a 600,000 barrel a day increase in oil inventories, a 300,000 barrel a day gain in gasoline stocks, and a 1.4 million barrel increase in distillate inventories.
Seems to be subscription only. Not sure if these analysts go into your record against the experts, pup. Thanks for the hard work.
Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 9:26 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Thanks for your post. Part of the fun is that each of these surveys is different, so if you and the others will feel free to post surveys from various sources, it would be great. Occasionally, there is a huge spread in the estimates, which is interesting to see when it happens. What that says is there is a lot of uncertainty in the market, and that in and of itself is useful information.
I have my little model calibrated for the Bloomberg survey. If the Bloomberg survey does not give me all of the numbers, like happened this week, I use the DJ survey as a backup.
Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 9:35 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Analysts expect oil stockpiles grew last week by 2.7 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy research arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. For the week ended May 23, crude-oil inventories fell by 8.8 million barrels, or 2.7 percent, to 311.6 million barrels, which were 9.7 percent below year-ago levels.
Meanwhile, gasoline inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels, or 1.5 percent, to 206.2 million barrels, which were 2.5 percent above year-ago levels. Analysts expect stockpiles of the motor fuel grew by 900,000 barrels last week.
Demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended May 23 was 0.7 percent lower than a year earlier, averaging more than 9.3 million barrels a day.
At the same time, U.S. refineries ran at 87.9 percent of total capacity on average, unchanged from the prior week. Analysts expect capacity rose by 0.6 percentage point last week.
Inventories of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.6 million barrels to 109.4 million barrels for the week ended May 23. Analysts expect distillate stocks rose by 1.6 million barrels last week.
Here's an example. This is from "ahead of the bell", and their survey is quite different from the Bloomberg which is expecting an increase of .828 million barrels of crude oil.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4927 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 9:40 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending May 30, 2008
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.5 million barrels per day
during the week ending May 30, up 183 thousand barrels per day from the previous
week's average. Refineries operated at 89.7 percent of their operable capacity
last week. Gasoline production moved higher compared to the previous week,
averaging 9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last
week, averaging 4.5 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 9.8 million barrels per day last week, up
827 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged nearly 9.5 million barrels per day, 813 thousand
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 1.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 211
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.8 million barrels from the previous week. At
306.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased
by 2.9 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average
range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components
inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.3
million barrels, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of
year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels last week
but remain near the bottom of the average range. Total commercial petroleum
inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week, and are in the lower
half of the average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.4
million barrels per day, down by 1.1 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million
barrels per day, down by 1.4 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged 4.1 million barrels per day over the last four weeks,
up 1.6 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 0.3 percent
higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
Crude inventories down... Gasoline up...
Imports way up.
Refineries actually running.
Gasoline demand down over 1% from last year. _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 9:51 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Crude down 4.8
Distillates up 2.3
Gasoline up 2.9
However the API numbers show a build in crude, hence why WTI has dropped. As mentioned about, jump in gasoline imports and refinery utilization helped the gasoline number.
Pretty prodigious forecasting, I must say, thanks to the help of the PO.com news sleuths. The only thing really unusual on here was the extra .2 mbpd of unleaded imports, and the reduced demand of about .2 mbpd under what I thought was going to happen, which accounts for nearly all of the 2.9 million barrel increase in gasoline stocks.
If the market is going to seize on any bearish news, it will be the apparent 1.4% decrease in unleaded products supplied. This is the first time this has really showed up in the weekly report to any extent greater than roundoff error. The "balance demand" calculation I do every week is down about .2 mbpd from my little model, so that is pretty consistent with the actual data.
Perhaps there will be some turbulence due to this apparent "bigger than expected" decrease in crude oil inventory, but the market will make of it what it will. I believe DP is right, the actual level of imports right now is probably no greater than 9.5 mbpd of crude oil, and may be even less than that.
At these levels of imports, and this refinery production level, we will continue to see drawdowns every week between now and August.
There was a nice increase in refinery production this week, and it looks as though distillate production is still a little higher than we have been seeing. This is not necessarily good, if you like a nice stable crude oil market.
Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 10:24 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
I notice they didn't try another "offloading problems" excuse this week. Wait till mid-August-Sept. when we will probably have a week with "offloading problems". _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Joined: Apr 16, 2008 Posts: 121 Location: Western PA, USA
Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 10:31 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Why did imports surge almost 1 mbpd from last week in crude oil if the "fog" story was bogus? I don't get it. If there was an extra tanker or two that wanted to unload but could not last week, would that not show up this week like it did in the form of a surge in imports? I am confused here over this.
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