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eXpat
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 08, 2006
Posts: 1074
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 Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:02 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.01) |
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The New York Times puts the blame on the Israelis for Oil prices link
| Quote: | Oil prices had their biggest-ever jump on Friday, after a senior Israeli politician raised the specter of an attack on Iran and the dollar fell against the euro.
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Even as uncertainties abound about the fundamentals of the market, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East regained center stage after Israel’s transportation minister, Shaul Mofaz, said Friday that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites looked “unavoidable.” Iran is the second-largest oil producer within the OPEC cartel and any interruptions in its exports could push prices higher levels.
“The return of the Iranian risk premium calls for a careful assessment of the potential oil supply impact of military strikes on Iran,” said Antoine Halff, an analyst at Newedge, an energy broker |
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DantesPeak
Expert
Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 5928
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:06 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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They got this wrong:
| Quote: | | Prices keep rising despite a lack of shortages in the market, and strong evidence of lower consumption in industrialized countries. |
I would say that "Prices are rising due to diesel shortages in world markets and strong evidence of higher consumption in rapidly growing industrial countries such as India and China".
But the last paragraph had something worthwhile to say:
“I don’t know how else to say it, this is not a bubble".
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It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting. |
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emersonbiggins
Moderator
Joined: Jul 10, 2005
Posts: 5191
Location: Dallas
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:06 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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I thought a nuke strike against Iran was already baked into the price?
 
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George Carlin |
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DantesPeak
Expert
Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 5928
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:12 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| emersonbiggins wrote: | I thought a nuke strike against Iran was already baked into the price?
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Actually, I don't think the oil markets - at least here in the US - will be open if Iran is attacked. We may move to substantial US government control of the entire oil market and product distrubution system rather rapidly with supply disruptions in the ME. There will be shortages and the SPR oil can't be distributed across the entire country.
This is a prediction, not a wish. Don't shoot the messneger please.
Hopefully it will never happen.
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emersonbiggins
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Joined: Jul 10, 2005
Posts: 5191
Location: Dallas
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:14 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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DP, that's a good take on it. It wouldn't surprise me to see such things pass, though. The jawboning over the last few years seems to be transitioning into something a little more substantive. 
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"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin |
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chuck6877
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 16, 2005
Posts: 532
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:20 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.01) +ZOMG!+ |
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| dohboi wrote: | | Well, I guess that's the end of our big correction or contraction or whatever you want to call it. In a couple days people will be getting all excited if oil "plunges" down to $135 again. The "dips" will keep happening, but they seem to be getting shallower and shorter. |
Damn, I'm eating some crow!!! I was WRONG.
I knew fundamentals were bullish but I thought we'd for sure have a larger pullback than $13.00!
One technical note:
When WTIC went to $135.09 it reached the highest above the 200 day moving average it had for this bull market as it went to 1.422 times the 200 dma
When WTIC hit $139.01 it was 1.424 times the 200 day moving average.... THAT'S THE SAME PERCENTAGE BASICALLY!
We MAY!! NEVER GOING TO COMMIT AGAIN!!! MAY GO DOWN TOMORROW and the next couple days if 1.42X200day moving average is going to act as an upward sloping ceiling.....
We'll see.........
Personally I think Israel isn't bluffing and that the attack on Iran will happen before the Olympics to tie China's hands. We don't want China getting involved because China and Iran are allies.....
If the attack happens we may see 5.42Xthe 200 Day moving average!!!  
Chuck
Last edited by chuck6877 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:27 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Shannymara
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Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 5709
Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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When are the Olympics?
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dunewalker
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 30, 2005
Posts: 765
Location: northern California
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:26 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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I think that an attack on Iran would very soon be followed by a declaration of martial law in the U.S., due to the subsequent events.
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chuck6877
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 16, 2005
Posts: 532
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:28 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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Shannymara,
The Olympics begin August 8th.
Doesn't it make sense to attack Iran now if you're a neocon?
China doesn't want to get involved while they're having to host the Olympics. They are Iran's greatest allie except for Russia.
Even Russia's hands might be tied.
Chuck |
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IndigoMoon
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 25, 2008
Posts: 215
Location: NE Ohio
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:30 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| Shannymara wrote: | | When are the Olympics? |
Aug. 08-24 2008
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Live simply, love generously, care deeply, and speak kindly.
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass;
It's about learning how to dance in the rain. |
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chuck6877
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 16, 2005
Posts: 532
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:32 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| dunewalker wrote: | | I think that an attack on Iran would very soon be followed by a declaration of martial law in the U.S., due to the subsequent events. |
Bush might try to keep power by pulling this one off. I've been worried about this.
Think Obama might get assassinated too? The powers that be (international bankers) wanted Hillary or McCain in my opinion.
We live in scary times.
Hence $139 WTIC!!! These prices are freekin' crazy! |
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Shannymara
Moderator
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 5709
Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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These scenarios are along the lines of what roccman is expecting.
What a day.
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"Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young |
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TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 3626
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:36 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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$10+ gain in a single freakin' day!
"When Black Friday comes
I'll stand down by the door
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor
When Black Friday comes
I'll collect everything I'm owed
And before my friends find out
I'll be on the road
When Black Friday falls you know it's got to be
Don't let it fall on me"
YouTube - Steely Dan - " Black Friday "
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Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe? |
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3206
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:40 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| dunewalker wrote: | | I think that an attack on Iran would very soon be followed by a declaration of martial law in the U.S., due to the subsequent events. |
Me, Roccman and Dukey have been saying this for a while . A flase flag op will probably occur first. |
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dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 05, 2007
Posts: 1151
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| Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:41 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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Some mood music for the day folks? (perhaps more for the younger members.) From a group with a big link to the Oil Drum on there web site....
House of Cards - radi0head
Love the lyrics "...denial, denial, infrastructure will collapse with voltage spikes....." |
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