Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)

DantesPeak

Has it begun? Did it start yesterday when well known oil tanker tracking firm, Oil Movements, said most OPEC oil exports in June were expected to go to Asian locations - and not to the US or Europe? Was it today when Israel implied that the bombing of Iran's new nuclear plant was under active consideration?

Or is this just a speculative bubble or the work of greedy traders?

Here are some recent threads on what the 'Superspike' is about:

New 'Superspike' Report Update: $200 Oil Possible

Goldman: Oil to hit $150-200 in 6-24 months

Goldman Sachs 2005 "super-spike" prediction just h...
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It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.

joeltrout · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 1317

I voted no. Call me crazy.

A superspike gives the impression of a temporary peak in prices and then prices will afterwards fall. I am seeing a dramatic upward trend that will not drop back down to previous levels of $40-$50 oil.

I think what we are seeing is markets realizing supply/demand issues are real and have no solution as of now. Speculation plays a healthy role in that.

joeltrout

yull

Historically, looking over the past decades, the whole last few years could be classed as a super spike. Recent price movements though certainly seem to show an acceleration of things and perhaps we are now reaching a tipping point where the price explodes as the peak, declining exports, and declining net oil energy break the buffer systems that have been adsorbing things over recent years. Now they are broke, if they have, who knows what will happen.

Maybe time to head for the hills!

TireFire · Tar Sands Joined: May 27, 2008 Posts: 32

Major cities are already seeing people adjust to high oil prices. just look at the public transportation sector.

Demand will drop in the near future, prior to the end of the year. I believe prices will remain very high (150$ per barrel) and remain there, but world demand and consumption will drop eventually and signs of this happening are already starting to emerge.

joeltrout · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 1317

yull

Depends on your definition I suppose. I agree though that this is something that is permanent, minus some unforeseen event, and that will be temporary itself.

GoghGoner · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 10, 2008 Posts: 514

pstarr

errorist · Tar Sands Joined: May 28, 2008 Posts: 77

Now everybody in the bussiness has read trough Peak Oil issue and is familar of things to come. Bye-bye keeping old models alive.

Must buy a roll of high quality tinfoil and some popcorn.

Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 3076 Location: UK

I voted yes. At the end of last year, I thought the price action would settle down somewhat. In hindsight the oil price had already blasted off vertically and has now set record after record ahead of the difficult time of year. There was room for differences of interpretation then. There is only one direction it is going in Q3. After that, I still think a sharp pullback is possible.
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emersonbiggins

Superspike started- maybe not, but hoarding - hell yes! Twisted Evil

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dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1472

As I've said elsewhere, we've already been on an exponential curve the last few years, doubling every two years or so. Now we're on track to double in six months (having gone up ~50% in ~three). If unabated this is either a great acceleration of the exponential curve or the beginning of kind of hyperbolic curve, where the period of doubling keeps shrinking.

Either one is pretty damn scary.

I ask the esteemed economists on the thread to please inform us where their vaunted "demand destruction" is? Why hasn't it kicked in to greatly lower prices so far? When do they think it will finally show up?

This is getting to feel like the Samuel Becket absurdist play "Waiting for Godot" where the hapless characters aimlessly wait around for a mysterious character to appear, but he never does.

mmasters

No.
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dohboi wrote:

DantesPeak