Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 1:31 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
Yeah, Expat, it will be interesting. Do you think the price will drop a bit now as people start seeing last weeks run up as emotional reaction? Or was that the beginning of a new, longer run up?
I don't pretend to be able to predict day-to-day prices, but I very much doubt any new "correction" will be any deeper or last any longer than the last one.
For me, the important new record was not so much the new high, but the amount and the suddenness of the swing. Such gyrations are likely to get wilder and more extreme as doomerish glimpses of reality alternate with denial...
James, I don't completely follow you, but keep in mind that this "wave" is almost surely of a qualitatively and quantitatively different sort than 1979. That was a blip in the rising side of a bell curve; this is the other side of that whole curve--very different in magnitude, duration, finality...
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 9:40 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
Just my observations dohboi, but it almost always drops during the weekend and then starts gathering strength again. Unlike previous weeks, this weekend there were not good news to soothe the markets, I would guess that by Tuesday things are going to start moving again. _________________ Stocking up on popcorn
Joined: May 07, 2008 Posts: 452 Location: Chaska, MN
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
I don't think that there is too much doubt on the part of people who post on this thread that oil will top $140 this week. Do we think that it will top $150 this week? That is my question.....I'm guessing we will top out at $147.62 for the week.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:18 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
I think my 1.421 times the 200 day moving average theory is going to be a rising ceiling until something CRAZY happens in the markets like Iran being attacked, another hurricane, or an admission that Saudi is way past peak.
When oil hit $135.09 the 200dma was about 95.06
135.09/95.06= 1.421 times the 200dma
When oil hit $139.12 the 200dma was 97.88
139.12/97.88= 1.421 times the 200dma
Strange Coincidence! (or not a coincidence)
1.421 X the 200dma is an amazing amount to be stretched above the 200dma. This is a phenomenal bull market with fundamentals out the WAZOO but I think until massive chaos happens this might be a rising top for a while.
I predict we'll go down below $130 and then maybe run up to $145 then run below about $135 and then run up to $150 when the 200dma is $106. (106x1.421=150.60!!)
The 200dma should be at $106 in about 6 weeks to allow for $150 if my theory holds!
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:32 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
I've found a strange coincidence (or not a coincidence) in the last two run ups......
When oil hit $135.09 the 200 dma was 95.06
135.09/95.06= 1.421 x the 200dma
When oil hit $139.12 the 200 dma was 97.88
139.12/97.88= 1.421 x the 200dma again!!
1.421 x the 200 dma is recurring... I think 1.421 x the 200dma will be a rising ceiling until there is widespread panic over something... hurricane, war with Iran, Saudi past peak admission, or widespread undeniable shortages...
In my new opinion we'll go down to just below $130 then run up to about $145, then run down to about $134 and run up to break $150 in about 6 weeks.
If my theory holds the 200 dma will have to be $105.55 to allow oil at $150 (105.55x 1.421= 150) At the rate it's rising that will be about 6 weeks........
Let's see if I finally get something right.........
Oh and I made the blue line the 40 day moving average in the chart below.Look how it appears to be the floor!! The red line is the 200 dma.
Looking at the chart below with the 40dma as the floor and 1.421 percentage as the ceiling, you have to admit technical analysis can be pretty amazing and make things look orderly atleast after the fact
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
Thanks for pointing out that very interesting, weirdly precise match up between the two surges. It looks like we may be heading down to your $130 mark already, with a four dollar drop within the first hour of trading! Maybe you really are on to something this time.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 8:17 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
"For me, the important new record was not so much the new high, but the amount and the suddenness of the swing. Such gyrations are likely to get wilder and more extreme as doomerish glimpses of reality alternate with denial...
James, I don't completely follow you, but keep in mind that this "wave" is almost surely of a qualitatively and quantitatively different sort than 1979. That was a blip in the rising side of a bell curve; this is the other side of that whole curve--very different in magnitude, duration, finality...[/quote]"
OK. 'the amt and suddenness of the swing' is exactly right.
We're nearing a blow off. Which is why I think time is more important than price now.
Think of an EKG screen and the 2 movements of the heart.
The first is rapid/most volatile. After "resting", the second movement climbs to near the level of the first.
But stays up longer on a gradually descending plateau
until collapsing to rest.
Rinse and repeat.
The problem here is that oil is our life's blood.
And no one puts a price on their life's blood.
Which is why I'm saying that after a certain time, say the next month and a 1/2, the price of oil will not matter.
We'll be to the end of Bahktiari's T2 (Transition 2).
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
My best explanation so far for the current record is this paragraph from the Financial Times:
Quote:
Wall Street banks contributed to the rally as they bought crude oil futures to cover their obligations under agreements that compensate investors and companies such as airlines if crude rises above $140 a barrel.
In short, a lot of big companies set about the same limit to what they could cope with if oil kept getting higher. Maybe more and more were getting wise about peak oil, who knows. But the crucial point is that their trigger point was a certain level of oil prices. Now we are reaching that trigger point, and it makes oil prices jump.
It's underpricing of risk, all over again. _________________ What are you doing about peak oil?
I am doing this
(click on the www button) v
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
chuck6877 wrote:
I still think a MAJOR correction will happen back to the 200dma. It will probably be after the summer though.
We've still in an uptrend channel. No crystal ball here, but I'd say consolidation in the $130-140 range for now, and if there is to be a correction, at the most working its way down to support levels at $120 and $110.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 9:00 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
Very nice! If this holds true, you may have discovered the key to a logrithmic equation to roughly describe all the factors that are currently affecting oil. (catastrophies not included )
In plain english, we may be looking at "200 days is the amount of time it takes oil to increase in value by 42.1%"
Which actually if we back up 200 days, isn't that far off: puts us around $80 in November/December, when we were actually moving between about $85 and $90.
That puts us at $197.74+/$5 in 200 days...so December 26th?
That's where my money is
chuck6877 wrote:
I've found a strange coincidence (or not a coincidence) in the last two run ups......
When oil hit $135.09 the 200 dma was 95.06
135.09/95.06= 1.421 x the 200dma
When oil hit $139.12 the 200 dma was 97.88
139.12/97.88= 1.421 x the 200dma again!!
1.421 x the 200 dma is recurring... I think 1.421 x the 200dma will be a rising ceiling until there is widespread panic over something... hurricane, war with Iran, Saudi past peak admission, or widespread undeniable shortages...
In my new opinion we'll go down to just below $130 then run up to about $145, then run down to about $134 and run up to break $150 in about 6 weeks.
If my theory holds the 200 dma will have to be $105.55 to allow oil at $150 (105.55x 1.421= 150) At the rate it's rising that will be about 6 weeks........
Let's see if I finally get something right.........
Oh and I made the blue line the 40 day moving average in the chart below.Look how it appears to be the floor!! The red line is the 200 dma.
Looking at the chart below with the 40dma as the floor and 1.421 percentage as the ceiling, you have to admit technical analysis can be pretty amazing and make things look orderly atleast after the fact
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 3:36 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)
So that would be a doubling every 15 months or so? If that holds, it represents a significant reduction in the timescale for doubling from the two years its taken to double over the last few years.
My question is: What if the time scale for doubling continues to shrink? Do you have any models for that?
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