Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Nov 28, 2004 Posts: 12730 Location: Neither Here Nor There
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:30 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
From a consideration of the trends of the past three years and the rate at which the doubling time is decreasing we get the following ( vastly more severe than an exponential function):
Sept 1 $250
Oct 15 $500
Nov 7 $1,000
Nov 17 $2,000
Nov 22 $4,000
Nov 24 $8,000
Nov 25 $16,000
etc.
In other words, it goes hyperinflationary this Fall.
Last edited by PenultimateManStanding on Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:50 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
I voted no.
This run appears to be a result of U.S. economic data which caused some to believe (me, among them) that the Fed will not actually work for a strong dollar, but rather will opt for more stimulus.
When the real superspike hits, there won't be any involvement with the value of the dollar.
Joined: Nov 28, 2004 Posts: 12730 Location: Neither Here Nor There
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 4:45 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
Jack wrote:
When the real superspike hits, there won't be any involvement with the value of the dollar.
Right, it would seem, based on the inflation data coming in from around the world to be history's first Global Hyperinflationary event. The End Of Money Everywhere At The Same Time. _________________ Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 5:07 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
PenultimateManStanding wrote:
Jack wrote:
When the real superspike hits, there won't be any involvement with the value of the dollar.
Right, it would seem, based on the inflation data coming in from around the world to be history's first Global Hyperinflationary event. The End Of Money Everywhere At The Same Time.
Well I'm going off topic on my own thread (somebody stop me!) but the world is going to have a heck of a time adjusting to $140 oil (if that's were it ends up). As I said above, basically we are only now adjusting to $70 oil, and we had two years to gradually do that. Now we are going to double the price in one year. The adjustment this time won't be pretty.
I expect rampant government intervention around the world to smooth the effects - mostly by subsidies and price controls. Even then, many won't be happy as the price of food and energy soars out of sight.
New government subsidies will porbably be paid by fiat money, so yes a vicious inflationary cycle is about to kick off - unless this latest price spike can somehow be deflated.
On another topic, Forbes votes 'yes' - and is calling this a superspike.
Quote:
Markets Brief
How Crude! Oil Jolts Wall Street
Steve Schaefer, 06.06.08, 4:30 PM ET
Crude had the largest single-day gain on record, spiking $10.15, to settle at a new record $138.54 a barrel.
After closing above $131 for the first time May 28 oil began to dip, going into a holding pattern around $127 before dropping to a $122.30 close Wednesday. Then came an impressive jump to $127.79 Thursday, following hints from the European Central Bank that a rate hike could be on its way, which sent the dollar reeling and foreshadowed Friday's super-spike.
Morgan Stanley (nyse: MS - news - people ) came out with a bullish forecast early Friday, predicting oil will hit $150 a barrel by July 4, and from that point it was off to the races.
Forbes _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Nov 28, 2004 Posts: 12730 Location: Neither Here Nor There
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 5:39 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
DantesPeak wrote:
Well I'm going off topic on my own thread (somebody stop me!)
My contention is that the trends are clear and the superspike is at hand within months. Of course if Deffeyes is right it'll all come crashing down before the trend gets much further. Of course I get your drift (somebody stop me!) but this is all quite on topic. _________________ Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 5:43 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
DantesPeak wrote:
expect rampant government intervention around the world to smooth the effects - mostly by subsidies and price controls. Even then, many won't be happy as the price of food and energy soars out of sight.
Agreed. It will be exacerbated by the superspike that comes shortly thereafter.
We'll know when the superspike hits. It will include an address from the Oval Office.
Joined: Nov 28, 2004 Posts: 12730 Location: Neither Here Nor There
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 5:56 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
As far as government intervention and subsidies go, that's being phased out now is it not? The situation brewing seems to be beyond government action to remediate. _________________ Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
PenultimateManStanding wrote:
As far as government intervention and subsidies go, that's being phased out now is it not? The situation brewing seems to be beyond government action to remediate.
Most countries are trying to phase them out, by the energy price is rising faster than the phase-outs are taking place - or in the probable coming case of the US and Canada, we will move to subsidies (or fuel tax cuts) that we didn't have before. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4853 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
Jack wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
expect rampant government intervention around the world to smooth the effects - mostly by subsidies and price controls. Even then, many won't be happy as the price of food and energy soars out of sight.
Agreed. It will be exacerbated by the superspike that comes shortly thereafter.
We'll know when the superspike hits. It will include an address from the Oval Office.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4983 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 6:26 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
joeltrout wrote:
I voted no. Call me crazy.
A superspike gives the impression of a temporary peak in prices and then prices will afterwards fall. I am seeing a dramatic upward trend that will not drop back down to previous levels of $40-$50 oil.
I voted 'yes' but afterwards I realized I should have voted 'no' for the reason offered above. The price will rise upwards indefinitely never to return. Spike implies an eventual return to the previous lower level much like gold and silver did a few decades ago.
So, change my vote to 'no'. Well, maybe yes and no. The first half of the super spike, not the second half. Yes? No? _________________ Got Dharma?
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1632 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 6:54 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
Forget all the mental gymnastics of what a bigger spike that never ends looks like. Just think of it this way-
In the last two days alone the price of oil has jumped from 122 to 138, an 11% jump of 16 dollars. If this were the Dow Jones, that would look like a 1400 point jump...in two days. That is phenomenal in and of itself.
Then you look at the price of oil doubling in one year. Spike? Heck yeah. But bigger spikes (and plunges) are on the way...30 dollar spikes, 15 dollar plunges. Volatility will be the name of the game but I would not be surprised by 200$ oil this year at this point...
Joined: Nov 28, 2004 Posts: 12730 Location: Neither Here Nor There
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 6:54 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
This is where responsible serious discussion is held. This is where we learn that Monte was approached by CNN. This is where egos grapple over the seriousness of Peak Oil. See you in the Open Forum. _________________ Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 8:06 am Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
Basically I agree that we will are about to undergo a price spike of some significance, but it's not a spike that will bring us back on a round trip ride to where we started. Where we ened up is going to be a very different place.
The author of the superspike report has a brief update. Actually it is his concept that high prices can only be temporary, and they will return back to earth. I do not agree with that part.
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 2:26 am Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
joeltrout wrote:
I voted no. Call me crazy.
A superspike gives the impression of a temporary peak in prices and then prices will afterwards fall. I am seeing a dramatic upward trend that will not drop back down to previous levels of $40-$50 oil.
I think what we are seeing is markets realizing supply/demand issues are real and have no solution as of now. Speculation plays a healthy role in that.
joeltrout
Do we even want oil prices to come down? Getting people to start thinking about conserving oil would be a way to get a slow downward grind instead of running into a brick wall. Even at $4 a gallon my friends hardly flinch from it and still go about buisness as usual.
I read on another thread about how many people the OP worked with comuted long distances to work. I myself worked at the Post Office in Kansas City Kansas and knew people that drove to work clear from Topeka. How high does oil need to get before people really rethink their lifestyles?
China is the only country that I know of that has a population control system in place. You mention population controls in the United States and you might as well be anti-christian. Places in Africa can not sustain the populations that they have. Agencies keep sending them food, and they keep popping out babies. Seems we should be sending them birth control pills instead of food. At least with a form of birth control, it makes a long term difference to the region, not a stop-gap measure that may not be sustainable.
The oil that we have left could last for some time. But, it will take a drastic change of lifestyle for the whole world. One that should have been made some time ago. I'm only 35, and the world has already added 2 billion people from when I can remember.
My grandfather walked to worked. He didn't get a job 40 miles from where he lived. We are going to have to change the way we think.
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 1:58 pm Post subject: Re: Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)
Yes, but it looks like that change will have to be forced upon us rather than being chosen by us. Even with hell visibly crashing down upon us and even on this mostly enlightened forum, many insist that any replacement to their current ICE car have the exact same capabilities of their current ICE.
We have all been hopelessly spoiled by the age of cheap oil, and spoiled children do not adjust easily to new realities involving going with out or even just with much, much less.
Any argument for serious powerdown based on the desirability of prudent planning or the morality of not absolutely trashing the resource base and ecology for future generations is completely ignored (or ridiculed...) by the vast majority of cheep-oil-spoiled children.
Even doom, to some extent, can be a typical spoiled-child kind of reaction: "If I can't have everything I've always had exactly as I've always had it, everything might as well go straight to hell."
My doom is based on the observation that pretty much all of us are too spoiled to even consider the kinds of sacrifices it would take to begin to address the converging catastrophes crashing down upon us. That, and the run-away global warming that now seems to be swinging into play (see neighboring thread).
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