Has the Oil 'Superspike' Started? (Poll)

PenultimateManStanding

From a consideration of the trends of the past three years and the rate at which the doubling time is decreasing we get the following ( vastly more severe than an exponential function):

Sept 1 $250
Oct 15 $500
Nov 7 $1,000
Nov 17 $2,000
Nov 22 $4,000
Nov 24 $8,000
Nov 25 $16,000
etc.

In other words, it goes hyperinflationary this Fall.

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 5085

I voted no.

This run appears to be a result of U.S. economic data which caused some to believe (me, among them) that the Fed will not actually work for a strong dollar, but rather will opt for more stimulus.

When the real superspike hits, there won't be any involvement with the value of the dollar.

Not to worry. The superspike will be here soon.

Cool

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PenultimateManStanding

DantesPeak

PenultimateManStanding

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 5085

PenultimateManStanding

As far as government intervention and subsidies go, that's being phased out now is it not? The situation brewing seems to be beyond government action to remediate.
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DantesPeak

vision-master

eastbay

thuja

Forget all the mental gymnastics of what a bigger spike that never ends looks like. Just think of it this way-

In the last two days alone the price of oil has jumped from 122 to 138, an 11% jump of 16 dollars. If this were the Dow Jones, that would look like a 1400 point jump...in two days. That is phenomenal in and of itself.

Then you look at the price of oil doubling in one year. Spike? Heck yeah. But bigger spikes (and plunges) are on the way...30 dollar spikes, 15 dollar plunges. Volatility will be the name of the game but I would not be surprised by 200$ oil this year at this point...

PenultimateManStanding

This is where responsible serious discussion is held. This is where we learn that Monte was approached by CNN. This is where egos grapple over the seriousness of Peak Oil. See you in the Open Forum.
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Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places

DantesPeak

Basically I agree that we will are about to undergo a price spike of some significance, but it's not a spike that will bring us back on a round trip ride to where we started. Where we ened up is going to be a very different place.

The author of the superspike report has a brief update. Actually it is his concept that high prices can only be temporary, and they will return back to earth. I do not agree with that part.

Superspike Report Update - Oil to Peak Around $200 [June 7]
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It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.

nekcmo · Coal Joined: Jun 08, 2008 Posts: 2

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1271

Yes, but it looks like that change will have to be forced upon us rather than being chosen by us. Even with hell visibly crashing down upon us and even on this mostly enlightened forum, many insist that any replacement to their current ICE car have the exact same capabilities of their current ICE.

We have all been hopelessly spoiled by the age of cheap oil, and spoiled children do not adjust easily to new realities involving going with out or even just with much, much less.

Any argument for serious powerdown based on the desirability of prudent planning or the morality of not absolutely trashing the resource base and ecology for future generations is completely ignored (or ridiculed...) by the vast majority of cheep-oil-spoiled children.

Even doom, to some extent, can be a typical spoiled-child kind of reaction: "If I can't have everything I've always had exactly as I've always had it, everything might as well go straight to hell."

My doom is based on the observation that pretty much all of us are too spoiled to even consider the kinds of sacrifices it would take to begin to address the converging catastrophes crashing down upon us. That, and the run-away global warming that now seems to be swinging into play (see neighboring thread).