http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp ... 4#25007434

Yes, and tell me Bush looks and sounds like a man who isn't feeling guilty. Something is up.

Whatever's up, one thing's for sure; there's little coming out of his mouth that isn't 'bread & circuses'...

Look at that spike! Makes me feel a little warm inside.

Sat phones don't grow on trees either, not even in Paraguay. It takes major engineering to get that stuff working. Analphabet hut-dwellers cant get satellites launched however much you whip them.

The system which feed the Rockefeller's and the Rothschild's can only do two or three things:

1) Force people to manufacture more and more stuff in order to borrow more and more money in order to keep interest payments flowing.

2) When the earth is exhausted the system can inflate the money supply for a short while in order to keep interest payments flowing.

Sooner or later their money will become worthless, and if they don't intermingle in the town square they will probably starve or freeze to death.

Tell me technical analysis isn't working on the US dollar trade!

LOOK HERE at the Dollar hitting the 100 day moving average which is the red line which represents the 20 week moving average. This has held for the last year and a half!:
[web]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&b=4&g=0&id=p35105816734[/web]

That 100 day moving average is a freekin' wall for the dollar...

Chuck

New here.

I hang at TOD.

I see $167-172.61 w/in a month and a half. Continuation of the parabolic.

That'll be the top.

After that we'll be in a different world.

Technical analysis all by it's lonesome is only as good as the statistics you base it on. That is to say the in situ statistics for commodities like the one you are trading in circumstances like the one it is currently in, you still have to qualify it with fundamentals, even if those fundamentals are irrational. You'll get burnt bad eventually if you ignore fundamentals. Fortunately all the old timers here see the real fundamentals of the oil market and the way peak oil is driving more and more of what is going on. If the speculators wanted it they could probably cause a run on oil prices to over $200 and force the dollar down even further. That would create a true bubble sure to burst soon. We are still not really bubbly yet on oil prices. Most all this stuff in the media is just cotton candy for the masses. Keep them intellectually and physically stimulated with all the new shows about their swingin' glory days. The operative historical word for the baby boomer generation is going to be 'Boom.' Thanks for the oil Dad!

Valid points. But I am sure their money is in gold, land and hard assets which will always make them elitists. We, the people of the world, are the only suckers who use paper money with no backing. Debt = enslavement

Welcome to the forum and the madness, mcgowanjm. I like your style, but I would like to know why you think the $170 range will be the breaking point, and what exactly you think will happen at that point.

Tracing the tops of the peaks on the charts does seem to give us a new trend line. I am wondering if this is merely the new rate of increase that will now hold until collapse, or if we will start seeing ever steeper rates of hyperinflation on oil (and so eventually everything else).

Gold? What do you want that for? Pretty useless, unless you have a well functioning stratified society where the top use gold to manifest their position. They have, however, done everything they can to take the magic out of gold the last 50 years. Ha!

Land? Ask the white farmers in Zimbabwe about the value of "land ownership". The concept of "ownership" is just an agreement and is not worth anything if the agreement is canceled.

I strongly recommend reading Nicola Machiavelli's "The Prince". Written by an eyewitness of the power struggles between the Italian city-states the 1400's. Dear old Machiavelli fill page after page with rather dry descriptions of a rather high degree of... ehh.. "social mobility". Both up and down.

In general, things tend to correct back to ma lines. A short term trend will check itself back to a 20 day ma periodically. A long term trend will tend to check itself back to a 200 day ma. When the short term trend gets too far above the 20 day moving average, eventually the bulls lose their nerve and it corrects back down.

Sharp upspikes at the beginning of a swing are often followed by correction. Some of those enthusiastic bulls that drove the price up so sharply decide it's time to take profits. My general expectation for the next couple of days is that it will probably either drop back a bit (maybe $3-$5) or trade sideways for a while and let the 20day ma catch up. If you're so inclined, that would be a good time to get in on the trend before it moves again. Eventually new bulls that missed the first move will buy in, and it will move up again.

If you look back at the last year of oil prices, most of the upwards legs have lasted a month or so before a correction. The last couple have been getting shorter and steeper. That could be an indication that a trend reversal is coming somewhere in the near future. At some point, economies are going to tank. Demand for oil will go down, and there will be either a trend reversal back to the 200 day ma, or at least an extended period of sideways movement that allows the 200d ma to catch up. We saw a beginning inkling of that this week with the unemployment numbers



Looking at Exxon, Shell, and Chevron, what all of them did is gap up open and then retrace. They all exhibited higher highs and higher lows than the prior day. It is said that in markets the amateurs control the open and the professionals control the close. How I would interpret that is this: A lot of people got home from work on Thursday, turned on the CNN, saw that there was an oil price spike, ran to their computers and placed market buy on open orders for Exxon. Because all those orders were sitting there piled up, the market gapped up at open. Later in the day, the pros stepped in. Their thinking is that this is a two day phenomenon that doesn't change all that much the long term profitability of Exxon. So they push the price back down to a more reasonable level.

Tell me about it!

Funny things seem to happen in the markets whenever I take a break.

I go on holiday for a couple of days and oil goes and shatters two records at one go, the straight price record as well as the largest intra-day rise ever! How about that! Gimme a break!

The last time was when I went on holiday back in August 2007 and the markets crashed big time. Credit crisis and all.

Maybe I should go on vacation more often ...

"

Good Morning, dohboi, and thanx for the welcome.

Great ideas from you that I'll try to answer.

Looking to stay humble, I traced the tops, as you pointed out.

At this point time is the factor. Price will rise rapidly until we
hit that time, which will then be the peak.

But here's where things get interesting.

I believe in wave theory. Sort of like Kondratieff/Elliott but
more "Heart beat".

1979 was the first "wave", crashing rapidly. This one is the second
and will only "slowly" descend (months/years) until it crashes to
"rest."

I'll stop here and you tell me if the above makes sense.

yours,
James

OPEC sees no need to pump more after price surge, article link



Not good news during the weekend to calm the markets, and tomorrow the madhouse opens again, this may be a very interesting week (from a doomerish point of view)

Yeah, Expat, it will be interesting. Do you think the price will drop a bit now as people start seeing last weeks run up as emotional reaction? Or was that the beginning of a new, longer run up?

I don't pretend to be able to predict day-to-day prices, but I very much doubt any new "correction" will be any deeper or last any longer than the last one.

For me, the important new record was not so much the new high, but the amount and the suddenness of the swing. Such gyrations are likely to get wilder and more extreme as doomerish glimpses of reality alternate with denial...

James, I don't completely follow you, but keep in mind that this "wave" is almost surely of a qualitatively and quantitatively different sort than 1979. That was a blip in the rising side of a bell curve; this is the other side of that whole curve--very different in magnitude, duration, finality...