Another Record ($143.67)

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1271

Thanks for pointing out that very interesting, weirdly precise match up between the two surges. It looks like we may be heading down to your $130 mark already, with a four dollar drop within the first hour of trading! Maybe you really are on to something this time.

chuck6877 · Intermediate Crude Joined: May 16, 2005 Posts: 528

Thanks for the pat on the back Dohboi Smile

I knew you'd like it when I turned bullish!

If it's going to keep going up I think that 40 day moving average has to hold. Isn't it amazing how in the chart it keeps becoming a floor?

Edited to add: I still think a MAJOR correction will happen back to the 200dma. It will probably be after the summer though.

Chuck

mcgowanjm · Tar Sands Joined: May 23, 2008 Posts: 63

"For me, the important new record was not so much the new high, but the amount and the suddenness of the swing. Such gyrations are likely to get wilder and more extreme as doomerish glimpses of reality alternate with denial...

James, I don't completely follow you, but keep in mind that this "wave" is almost surely of a qualitatively and quantitatively different sort than 1979. That was a blip in the rising side of a bell curve; this is the other side of that whole curve--very different in magnitude, duration, finality...[/quote]"

OK. 'the amt and suddenness of the swing' is exactly right.

We're nearing a blow off. Which is why I think time is more important than price now.

Think of an EKG screen and the 2 movements of the heart.

The first is rapid/most volatile. After "resting", the second movement climbs to near the level of the first.

But stays up longer on a gradually descending plateau
until collapsing to rest.

Rinse and repeat.

The problem here is that oil is our life's blood.
And no one puts a price on their life's blood.

Which is why I'm saying that after a certain time, say the next month and a 1/2, the price of oil will not matter.

We'll be to the end of Bahktiari's T2 (Transition 2).

eXpat · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 08, 2006 Posts: 971

Very good points chuck6877, we´ll how it behaves.
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Stocking up on popcorn Smile

Doly · Expert Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 4034

My best explanation so far for the current record is this paragraph from the Financial Times:

lowem · Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)

jbrovont · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 16, 2006 Posts: 675

Very nice! If this holds true, you may have discovered the key to a logrithmic equation to roughly describe all the factors that are currently affecting oil. (catastrophies not included Smile

)

In plain english, we may be looking at "200 days is the amount of time it takes oil to increase in value by 42.1%"

Which actually if we back up 200 days, isn't that far off: puts us around $80 in November/December, when we were actually moving between about $85 and $90.

That puts us at $197.74+/$5 in 200 days...so December 26th?

That's where my money is Smile

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1271

So that would be a doubling every 15 months or so? If that holds, it represents a significant reduction in the timescale for doubling from the two years its taken to double over the last few years.

My question is: What if the time scale for doubling continues to shrink? Do you have any models for that?

charliehelyes · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2005 Posts: 105

oil is back at $137.88 could today be another record setting day?

Barbara · Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:16 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16)

Looks like the whole thing is computer controlled...
Rolling Eyes

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**no english mothertongue**
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Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.

darren · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 07, 2005 Posts: 133

I see the ~~astrologers~~ technical analysts have been hard at work..... Rolling Eyes

And yes, we may well set a new record today! Oil can't seem to give up any gains for long.... "bad news" keeps coming out, since the situation is, in fact, fundamentally poor.

smallpoxgirl · Moderator Joined: Nov 08, 2004 Posts: 5722

joeltrout · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 1317

chuck6877 · Intermediate Crude Joined: May 16, 2005 Posts: 528

Ikes, that's freekin' ugly.

I'm sure the 40 day moving average will hold though which is currently at $122.85 and climbing fast. THings are just too fundamentally strong right now.

We'll have to see how the inventory report affects things tomorrow..... Even if it's a bullish report, the price will probably still have a lower low and lower high than today I bet, which is bearish.

The price seems to want to go down right now like Smallpoxgirl is saying.

I'm absolutely sure Smallpox was talking about that two day run up.....

Chuck

smallpoxgirl · Moderator Joined: Nov 08, 2004 Posts: 5722