Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:06 am Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
kublikhan wrote:
Wind power is profitable on its own. Yes, even if you remove the government credit.
If that is true then maybe right now should be a good time to remove that government credit. Ahhh but it's not being done.
Can wind power truly stand on it's own?
There are other "subsidies" too aside the government credit of course.
kublikhan wrote:
Also, oil has subsidies today, as it has since it's infancy. Coal has subsides as well.
Coal and oil is being subsidized by what energy source?
The profits generated from burning wood?
kublikhan wrote:
What is your basis for your belief that nuclear is cheaper than wind?
Lets save that for another thread. We have plenty to talk about here already.
kublikhan wrote:
Quote:
The lifetime cost of new generating capacity in the United States was estimated in 2006 by the U.S. government: wind cost was estimated at $55.80 per MWh, coal (cheap in the U.S.) at $53.10, natural gas at $52.50 and nuclear at $59.30
My gut tells me these numbers are not accurate.
If wind is comparable to coal in price (as the study suggests) then how do you explain Germany's announcement to build 20 new coal fired power plants!
Despite Climate Concerns, Germany Plans Coal Power Plant
Quote:
Yet over 20 coal-fired power plants -- major producers of greenhouse gases -- are planned for Germany.
(estimate) 20 coal power plants would be double the equivalent of all the windmills in Germany.
If this is the energy policy of a socialistic liberal country proud to label itself as green, I wonder what a conservative country would look like.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 676 Location: Illinois
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 2:00 am Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
cube wrote:
If that is true then maybe right now should be a good time to remove that government credit. Ahhh but it's not being done.
Can wind power truly stand on it's own?
There are other "subsidies" too aside the government credit of course.
To be fair, you should remove all energy subsidies, not just wind. And i'm talking about both direct and indirect subsides, like the liability waivers nuclear gets in the event of a catastrophe. It's not fair to dole out subsides to nuclear, coal, etc, then laugh when wind can't compete with subsidized competition. I say rip out all flavors of all subsides. Then slap a carbon tax on CO2 emitters(including the construction of the plant/turbine). Let's see who is left standing at the end of that game.
cube wrote:
Coal and oil is being subsidized by what energy source? The profits generated from burning wood?
During the transition from wood to coal, coal infrastructure was built on the back of wood, yes. Same with the transition from coal to oil, oil infrastructure was built on the back of coal.
cube wrote:
My gut tells me these numbers are not accurate. If wind is comparable to coal in price (as the study suggests) then how do you explain Germany's announcement to build 20 new coal fired power plants!
These are complete life cycle numbers, including the savings for not having to buy fuel. Savings that add up over the 40 year life span of a coal power plant, but savings that do not show up under this year's budget. It's the same way Janitrol became the number 1 furnace maker. Janitrol sux. Yet all those housing developers making 1000 unit developments of cookie-cutter homes want the lowest price possible. Who cares if it won't last 5 years without hundreds of dollars of new parts, and that it will cost more money to run? They don't want to spend the extra money now, let the homeowner pay for it when they are long gone.
Also, the wind turbine market is being constrained by a shortage of turbines at present. As you said, these are just growing pains and will ease up as the market matures. But if Germany needs power now, then they must get it from somewhere.
cube wrote:
If this is the energy policy of a socialistic liberal country proud to label itself as green, I wonder what a conservative country would look like.
Bah, sometimes I think greenies are hypocrites. They protest every time someone tries to build ANY power plant, than go home and plug in their hairdryers. Germany appears especially hypocritical signing accords to reduce their CO2 production, then turning around and building 20 new coal power plants. Or importing the power from someone else, letting them generate the CO2 that Germany benefits from. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:22 am Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
kublikhan wrote:
....I say rip out all flavors of all subsides.
*laughter*
I lost count how many liberals like to say "lets get rid of subsidies" and then they turn around and propose subsidies for their preferred programs. Have you decided to become a libertarian kublikhan? A subsidy is a subsidy regardless of how popular the program may be. Why stop at energy? Lets also end subsidies for college education, 401K retirement plan, public transit, and everything else. The ONLY political ideology that is truly serious about ending subsidies is Libertarianism. That's perfectly fine with me. I think the world would be better off if there were NO subsidies. *I'm part of the extreme minority*
kublikhan wrote:
cube wrote:
My gut tells me these numbers are not accurate. If wind is comparable to coal in price (as the study suggests) then how do you explain Germany's announcement to build 20 new coal fired power plants!
These are complete life cycle numbers, including the savings for not having to buy fuel.
A life cycle analysis sounds fair enough. For example, if we were to look at upfront costs only then natural gas plants are cheapest. But natural gas fuel is expensive so in the long run a natural gas plant would actually be more expensive than coal. Getting back to wind does this study also factor in some very disadvantageous properties of wind power?
1) The wind doesn't necessarily blow where people live:
Electric cables have to be strung much further.
2) Wind power is not a concentrated energy source:
Therefore a ridiculously long chain of windmills have to be spaced out. That's just more electric cables that have to be put up.
3) Wind is intermittent:
--a) this makes for a very inefficient use of electric transmission lines. Suppose there's a 3MW windmill. The power can fluctuate from 0MW to 3MW but if averaged out it would be like 1MW. However you still need to build a 3MW capacity cable even if the average power output is only 1MW.
--b) the end user cannot accept a fluctuating power load. Therefore some type of sophisticated load balancing equipment would have to be used. And this difficulty would only rise as more windmills are put up.
Does the study also factor in these extra costs of wind power?
kublikhan wrote:
Also, the wind turbine market is being constrained by a shortage of turbines at present. As you said, these are just growing pains and will ease up as the market matures. But if Germany needs power now, then they must get it from somewhere.
Are you trying to say the decision to resort to coal had nothing to do with believing coal to be cheaper? It was all a matter of a shortage of wind turbines at the moment? That would be a very bold statement to make.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 10:42 am Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
kublikhan wrote:
...I think greenies are hypocrites. They protest every time someone tries to build ANY power plant, than go home and plug in their hairdryers. Germany appears especially hypocritical signing accords to reduce their CO2 production, then turning around and building 20 new coal power plants. Or importing the power from someone else, letting them generate the CO2 that Germany benefits from.
Germany plans to shut down all of its nuclear power plants by 2021 (at the moment Germany is still the 2nd biggest producer of electricity from nuces within Europe).
Germany also has to replace(!) many of its old coal fired power plants in the Western part of the country, all of them not as efficient as the best available technology now.
So what would you suggest for a country with one of the highest energy demands by area (only few countries are worse here, i.e. Japan and the Netherlands), for a country with almost no recources on oil, natural gas and Uran and for a country with quite low solar radiation and wind potential and very little hydro power potential?
Do you really think that we should replace all of our nukes AND many of our old coal plants with gas (from Russia) and renewables within a few years?
Last friday the governement raised EEG-payment for electricity on biogas and wind power plants to increase production of renewables. The plans a 27-30% renewables by 2020, now it is 14% and in 1995 we started at around 4%.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 676 Location: Illinois
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 11:34 am Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
cube wrote:
Does the study also factor in these extra costs of wind power?
I could not find a link to the study, so I can't answer precisely what factors were considered.
cube wrote:
Are you trying to say the decision to resort to coal had nothing to do with believing coal to be cheaper? It was all a matter of a shortage of wind turbines at the moment? That would be a very bold statement to make.
Are we talking dirty coal, clean coal, CCS, and/or carbon taxes? If you are referring to plain old dirty coal, the numbers from the study mentioned above show it is still cheaper than wind. If you are talking CCS, that adds 30-60% to the cost.
CCS
cephalotus wrote:
Germany plans to shut down all of its nuclear power plants by 2021 (at the moment Germany is still the 2nd biggest producer of electricity from nuces within Europe).
Germany also has to replace(!) many of its old coal fired power plants in the Western part of the country, all of them not as efficient as the best available technology now.
So what would you suggest for a country with one of the highest energy demands by area (only few countries are worse here, i.e. Japan and the Netherlands), for a country with almost no recources on oil, natural gas and Uran and for a country with quite low solar radiation and wind potential and very little hydro power potential?
Do you really think that we should replace all of our nukes AND many of our old coal plants with gas (from Russia) and renewables within a few years?
For starters, I would suggest stop shuttering all your nuke plants. Those things represent a large investment of capital, why are you shuttering them? Second, I would not let my politicians sign treaties with obligations you can't meet. I read that those plants would be putting out more CO2 than prior agreements allow. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 11:48 am Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
PeakOiler wrote:
JJ wrote:
dinopello wrote:
BigTex wrote:
Ludi wrote:
BigTex wrote:
You can't test nuclear weapons in Texas. The landscape is so bleak and lifeless to start with that there would be no way to tell if the nuclear device actually did any damage.
That's right. Nothing but rocks and maybe a small cactus.
You've got a cactus?!?!?!?
I don't have anything but small and medium sized rocks.
You have two sizes of rock ?! Last time I was in Texas (El Paso) all I saw was dust.
woooahh there hoss....without that dust my kids wouldn't have anything to eat...
Well I don't know about y'all, but I've got lots of cedar trees around here I can eat:
Spiced, of course, with ground up scorpions and dust. The cacti are for dessert.
hey peakoiler the guy at work said amybe you can make ethanol from cedars....
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 11:56 am Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
I just got off the phone with the Austin Green Choice energy program folks. If you own your own home and will be here in a few years, I really think this would be a smart thing to do. Austin energy is guaranteeing 5.5 cents per kilo-watt hour through 2022, if you sign up for this program now. I just called and they said they were about 70% full and they only have so many spots that they are opening.
Prices are currently 3.5 cents for 2008. There was a 17% increase in price from 2007-2008, and they expected a 15% increase from 2008-2009. If that rate of increase holds, prices would be 31 cents per kilo-watt hour in 2022.
I asked the guy a little about the program, and he wasn't a complete muppet so he actually had some good info. He said that they had to structure the program so business got a certain portion of the offering to a capped limit per year, and residential got the rest with no cap. He told me that Dell called in the beginning and wanted to buy EVERYTHING they were selling, all the kilo-watt hours offered under the program. All of it. Which makes total sense when you think about it, as their electricity usage is probably the single largest in the area, except for all the state offices and agencies.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 3:30 pm Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
cephalotus wrote:
....
Germany plans to shut down all of its nuclear power plants by 2021 (at the moment Germany is still the 2nd biggest producer of electricity from nuces within Europe).
Germany also has to replace(!) many of its old coal fired power plants in the Western part of the country, all of them not as efficient as the best available technology now.
So what would you suggest for a country with one of the highest energy demands by area (only few countries are worse here, i.e. Japan and the Netherlands), for a country with almost no recources on oil, natural gas and Uran and for a country with quite low solar radiation and wind potential and very little hydro power potential?
Do you really think that we should replace all of our nukes AND many of our old coal plants with gas (from Russia) and renewables within a few years?
Last friday the governement raised EEG-payment for electricity on biogas and wind power plants to increase production of renewables. The plans a 27-30% renewables by 2020, now it is 14% and in 1995 we started at around 4%.
cephalotus I do not understand why is Germany so against nuclear power?
//
There has been a massive increase in wind power capacity installed in Germany for the past 10 years.
Do you see this trend continuing for the next 10 years or has Germany "hit a brick wall" and cannot go any further with wind?
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 3:40 pm Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
GeoJAP wrote:
I just got off the phone with the Austin Green Choice energy program folks. If you own your own home and will be here in a few years, I really think this would be a smart thing to do. Austin energy is guaranteeing 5.5 cents per kilo-watt hour through 2022, if you sign up for this program now. I just called and they said they were about 70% full and they only have so many spots that they are opening.[/url]
That's a pretty awesome kwh price. I was paying the standard 8.9c/kwh from Austin Energy (natgas/coal?) up until the beginning of this year (moved to Dallas). _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 3:52 pm Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
To: emersonbiggins
Woah be careful.
If something sounds too good to be true it probably is.
If the average price of electricity these days in Texas is 10 cents/kWh then I don't see how any company can stay in business selling something for a 50% discount. That sounds very suspicious. Does this company require some type of upfront payment? If the answer is yes I'd run away and wouldn't look back.
cube's financial advice:
If you try to buy wine at beer prices you'll end up with moonshine!
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 3:56 pm Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
cube wrote:
To: emersonbiggins
Woah be careful.
If something sounds too good to be true it probably is.
If the average price of electricity these days in Texas is 10 cents/kWh then I don't see how any company can stay in business selling something for a 50% discount. That sounds very suspicious.
I've actually been trying to figure that out myself by looking over their webpages. I'm going to call them back. It's the City of Austin's utility company, to answer your question.
Edit: I talked to them again and this is what I was able to gather. This guy wasn't as knowledgeable as the first, so it took some effort to get a formula from him.
The "fuel charge rate" is currently 3.5 cents, and would be locked at 5.5 cents under the Green Choice program. The first 500 kilo-watt hours are charged at the "fuel charge rate". Everything after the first 500 hours is charged at the seasonal rate (which is 7.8 cents in the summer currently) plus the fuel charge rate. So Austin customers are currently paying 11.3 cents after the first 500 kWh right now. It's a little complicated but it will still produce savings in the long run.
I asked and I used 1036 kWh last month when we turned on the AC.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 676 Location: Illinois
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
cube wrote:
Do you see this trend continuing for the next 10 years or has Germany "hit a brick wall" and cannot go any further with wind?
I wouldn't call it a brick wall, but growth has definitely been falling lately in Germany. Growth in Germany will continue, but slower. USA, Spain, China, India, and France are the hot markets right now for wind growth.
Quote:
Herdan said the German outlook was gloomy, despite a draft law that seeks to make wind energy production more attractive amid plans to shut down the country's nuclear power plants.
"Even respective of this, there will be a fall, definitely. It could happen that we have a fall of around 1,000 MW," Herdan said. Germany is the world's largest producer of electricity from wind power and has 22,247 MW installed.
Hermann Albers, President of the German Wind Energy Association, said the German market was under pressure from high raw material and energy costs, which make up around 10-20 percent of total manufacturing costs, according to the VDMA.
Around 1,666 MW worth of wind turbines were installed in Germany in 2007, down 25 percent from a year earlier
Germany is still the frontrunner in total installed wind power capacity, with 22,200 megawatts, but in 2007 it lagged the United States, Spain, China, and India in terms of new capacity added. (See data.) Growth in Germany is slowing because of a saturation of suitable onshore sites and a decrease in the feed-in tariff for wind power. Countrywide, Germany generates more than 7 percent of its electricity from the wind. In the northern states of Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and Schleswig-Holstein, wind meets an impressive 30 percent of electricity needs.
Spain proved to be the shocker in the European market in 2007, installing 3,520 megawatts—the highest number ever in Europe in a single year. Spain now ranks third in total installed wind capacity with 15,100 megawatts. And with wind energy supplying 10 percent of the country’s electricity, Spain is second only to Denmark in terms of percentage of electricity generated this way.
France also demonstrated impressive gains in 2007, increasing its total installed wind capacity by 57 percent to 2,450 megawatts. The French government’s goal is to increase installed wind capacity to 25,000 megawatts by 2020.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Texas Wholesale Electricty Prices Soar 10X
cube wrote:
To: emersonbiggins
Woah be careful.
If something sounds too good to be true it probably is.
If the average price of electricity these days in Texas is 10 cents/kWh then I don't see how any company can stay in business selling something for a 50% discount. That sounds very suspicious. Does this company require some type of upfront payment? If the answer is yes I'd run away and wouldn't look back.
cube's financial advice:
If you try to buy wine at beer prices you'll end up with moonshine!
Probably a long-term contract? I'm sure the subsidy shows up as a line-item on the city's budget, so you're paying one way or the other.
_________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
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