I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:46 pm Post subject: Re: Debt moratorium or massive homelessness in the US?
nocar wrote:
This scenario of course rests on the assumption that there are lots of people not being about to afford their mortgages.
It also rests on the assumption that the banks have the experienced staff needed to work out all those agreements, and that the banks actually bother about it at all.
The loan origination processes were largely automated and now the banks are swapping defaulted loans against fresh treasury notes in obscure alphabet soups of "loan programs".
Frankly, I don't think the banks bother very much about such petty details as people living in houses or not. They just go trough the movements and don't bother about the outcome on the ground.
Joined: May 21, 2008 Posts: 86 Location: Edmonton, tar-berta
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:46 pm Post subject: Re: Debt moratorium or massive homelessness in the US?
Well if it gets any worse. Every single Canadian is going to own a home in the USA. I know if it gets any worse I am going to buy a couple of homes in the US.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:54 pm Post subject: Re: Debt moratorium or massive homelessness in the US?
Yes. My parents were teenagers in the 1930's. My mom is still alive and doing well. They went throught the whole WWII thing and ration coupons and the whole bit. Bottom line the world did not end. I grew up on stories of the great depression. My mom still saves on social security. My dad said there will always be a market for babes, booze, bibles and beans even in the hardest of times. I think Capone averaged about $60 million a year during the depression. Hustlers will survive. People will always make money.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:19 pm Post subject: Re: Debt moratorium or massive homelessness in the US?
During the Depression, 1/3 of all farmers lost their farms before the government did anything. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 2:46 am Post subject: Re: Debt moratorium or massive homelessness in the US?
Quote:
My mom is still alive and doing well. They went throught the whole WWII thing and ration coupons and the whole bit. Bottom line the world did not end. I grew up on stories of the great depression.
American always seem to think that the great depression was the worst period to be in. Then imagine being a civilian in Germany in WWII. Those were tough times, with bombs falling allover, and very little to eat, and all men being drafted. Still, the world did not end, there was no real Madmax scenario, and most civilians survived. WW1, and the depression in between with run-away inflation, were bad there too. Not all Germans liked Hitler and his ideas, but they got no exemption from bombs and hardship (rather the opposite since they were less likely to have good connections with the ruling Nazis.)
More recently, the Russians have had their savings snatched away more than once in various money reforms. Still no general chaos.
That is why I do not believe in a total breakdown of society due to Peak Oil. Although there will be lots of changes and adjustments that people have to make. And it is good to grow some food in a garden.
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 637 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:06 am Post subject: Re: Debt moratorium or massive homelessness in the US?
Serial_Worrier wrote:
The banks built a model based on the hope that evicted FBers wouldn't trash the home. I wouldn't count on that hope. Also are the banks going to pay for extra round-the-clock security to make sure the homes don't get trashed?
Years ago, trashing a foreclosed house was a great way to get in even worse trouble. Today, the McMansion kills your credit so bad that nobody cares what happens next. The banks, in their typical short sighted "how much can I make today" view of the world, have been simply doing the same thing they've done for years. For the most part, they are still reacting like there is a forclosure rate of under 1% and have yet to understand (or care) that they have created a monster.
They also understand that 24hr security is extremely expensive and that there is no good way out of the mess they made without "giving in" and admitting they caused the mess and spending lots of money to fix it. Many bank managers probably look at it as "it's not my money" and are just playing the old foreclosure game. They simply do not care what happens to the houses and are just collecting their paycheck until they are booted out when the FDIC closes the bank.
Remember, most of them are there simply there for the paycheck and have few marketable skills in the real economy. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:38 am Post subject: Re: Debt moratorium or massive homelessness in the US?
Captain_Meh wrote:
"Debt moratorium or massive homelessness in the US?"
IMO, neither. I predict another bailout, moral hazard be damned.
Seems like such bailout would be too broad and would cover almost everything. The gov would see falling tax income yet be shelling out money as fast as they can magnetize silicone chips to create it.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:42 am Post subject: Re: Debt moratorium or massive homelessness in the US?
nocar wrote:
Quote:
My mom is still alive and doing well. They went throught the whole WWII thing and ration coupons and the whole bit. Bottom line the world did not end. I grew up on stories of the great depression.
American always seem to think that the great depression was the worst period to be in. Then imagine being a civilian in Germany in WWII. Those were tough times, with bombs falling allover, and very little to eat, and all men being drafted. Still, the world did not end, there was no real Madmax scenario, and most civilians survived. WW1, and the depression in between with run-away inflation, were bad there too. Not all Germans liked Hitler and his ideas, but they got no exemption from bombs and hardship (rather the opposite since they were less likely to have good connections with the ruling Nazis.)
More recently, the Russians have had their savings snatched away more than once in various money reforms. Still no general chaos.
That is why I do not believe in a total breakdown of society due to Peak Oil. Although there will be lots of changes and adjustments that people have to make. And it is good to grow some food in a garden.
nocar
Though, in Russia if you complain you disappear.
I think people back then had a little more ethics than the generation of now. Or maybe it is just that gambling fever has taken over so many lives and polluted the normally respectable professions that were once looked upon as being beyond the corruption.
We used to look at a CPA's report as gospel. Now I look at it like a piece of dirty toilet paper.
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