I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:14 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
When I look at our civilization (first world/industrialized) it seems to me that we have become hyper-specialized and I truly doubt that the end of the oil age will happen with only a few thousands/millions of deaths.
Most people in the first world expect and require significant amounts of calories delivered every day to them as food stuffs. Production of these food stuffs have now reached the point of diminished returns WITH the help of petroleum products. As petroleum becomes increasing less available so will food for that reason. Then there is the need to transport food products to the consumers. Those costs are reaching diminishing returns also .. that is part of what the protests by fishermen and truckers are about in Europe I think.
First world ( and now many second world nations as well) are nuclear powers. As crucial resources decline and hunger /anger/nationalism/"us against them" mentalities spread it is only a matter of time before some leader somewhere decides to use such weapons (and/or other weapons of mass destruction) to try to improve their own nations chance of survival. Such exchanges are likely to degenerate very rapidly with catastrophic effects that will only further degrade future carrying capacity of this planet.
I used to think that our inability to find extra terrestrial evidence of intelligence was probably secondary to pure interstellar distance issues. Now I am beginning to think it may well be that intelligence tends to lead to it's own destruction as part of it's very nature.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:31 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
I am 56 years old, well off, and healthy. I do not expect to make 65 and I would not be surprised to see earth's population down from the 7 billion or so it is at now by 30=50% before I die. I am very happy to have no children.
Of course .. I hang out at this site and may be projecting;-).
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:49 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
VMarcHart wrote:
Hi, Serial. I second your PO.com's cultish point-of-view. If it's so bad, or fixing to, shouldn't some folks help us with population cap?
Regarding the relation between fossil fuel farming and population, you're probably right, one is the fruit of the other. So, until the next technology can replace fossil fuel, it's fair to assume some may die, but doubtfully 90%, or even 50%. Monte will disagree.
We'll probably eat more carrots instead of Oreos. All the fossil fuel energy spent in non-essentials will be diverted to the essentials. Someone posted earlier something to the effect of "do we need more new chairs?"
Already eat carrots. Oreos never liked them. I eat very very "processed foods" in general. The problem is that everything takes lots of fuel to grow and harvest. We might have to return to being a peasant class, but there will be much riots and starvation until we get there I think.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 2:00 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
hiperhiper wrote:
Serial_Worrier wrote:
Basically PO is a doomsday-cult site. No doubt about that now.
I suggest that all members contribute couple of 100 USD ( as they will be worthless soon anyway ) we buy a desert ranch somewhere in Texas and establish a cult as many here are already in that stage. We can all worship Monte, and our first door neighbor will be GWB ( i bet he is also prepared ) and he actually probably has some room left now that Jenna has moved out )
and we can start a band called "Monte and the doomers...." and it'll probably go global and, and,....
Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 1439 Location: Somewhere there
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 2:20 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
VMarcHart wrote:
But, hey, it's the proverbial "life's given you a lemon, make a lemonade." It serves no purpose to be pessimistic, down, gloomy, etc, 99% of the time/postings. 6 billion will not die.
We've ruined the planet, Long Nick. Its dying, as we speak. We are the most catastrophic event in the history of Earth. So, if you have a gram of conscience, you will realize that a die-off, a long needed correction, is a lemonade.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1154 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 3:39 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
Pretorian, congrats on your 1000th posting.
Alas, I don't know what a Long Nick is. And I didn't know conscience was a mass metric. You sure are a smart cookie.
True, a correction is long overdue. But do we need to be so sour, pessimist, or so "realistic" about it? Perhaps there are ways we can reduce the population, reduce the dependency on oil-driven comforts, and go back to be peasants, as Serial_Worrier put it.
As I don't see you volunteer to be the first in the correction, I say we put our heads together and find a solution.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
VMarcHart wrote:
I say we put our heads together and find a solution.
Some of us have been looking at solutions here for years.
How about you put your head to it and let us know what you come up with.
For instance, what are you doing about this problem, yourself? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:45 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
Serial_Worrier wrote:
I'd rather dieoff then live like a 1600s peasant.
Solves that problem, doesn't it?
Some of us will die because we can't live like 1600s peasants. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:02 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
VMarcHart wrote:
Please rid us of your dark cloud. Thanks!
The reality of ecology and biology are not dark clouds and have little to do with pessimism or optimism. I am considered a moderate in my die-off views on this site. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1154 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:04 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
Ludi wrote:
For instance, what are you doing about this problem, yourself?
Hi, Ludi. I answered that the other day. In a nutshell, I preach, teach, explain, lead by examples, etc. I'm not going to make people do what they don't want to do, nor allienate all my friends and relatives, nor live more a moron than I already do.
Ludi, I don't see the purpose of being overly negative. I think that's not your style either. Those who think the end is eminent and so painful, like you wrote, would solve the problem if they weren't here any longer.
No, there is no way 2-3-4 billion people will die because we're out of gas. If there is, I'm sure I'll be among them, and you can tell me, posthumously, "I told you so."
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:16 pm Post subject: Re: 6,000,000,000 die-off
oreopride wrote:
I understand you're a vet and have been harking on a die-off for years but it's just not going to happen (in the 1st world nations).
At first. As I have written:
Montequest wrote:
The inevitable die-off necessitated by overshoot will apply differently depending upon where you are in the Petri dish. In the third-world, the inability to purchase or grow food will cause starvation, malnutrition, and markedly increase the death rate. Many starving countries rely on exports of cash crops to survive. They won’t be able to afford IMF debt, nor the energy required for irrigation, petrochemicals, or fertilizers.
In the 1st world, our standard of living will decline markedly. In some ways, modern civilization has allowed us to redirect or satisfy the desire to reproduce by allowing us to acquire things—material possessions—in place of having children. Our "material infant mortality" will increase dramatically. I see an end to NASCAR and long commutes, long-haul trucking, and an implosion of our urban sprawl and financial systems. Unemployment will rise beyond belief. People will have to actually work for a living, rather than live off investments.
This might seem, in principle, an alternative to the more literal form of die-off which is an abrupt increase in human mortality. Of course, there will be a lack of available, affordable medical care, resulting in a lower life expectancy. Poorer diets will also lower life expectancy. As the standard of living declines, more of the lower income and elderly will starve, freeze to death, or die from heat exhaustion, as do every year. Depending upon the rate of decline of available energy, the attrition could be slow or quite fast.
Or depending upon a pandemic that starts in the third world and spereads to the 1st world. then you will have a 1st world die-off.
Quote:
The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish flu) was an influenza pandemic that was first found in the United States, appeared in Sierra Leone and France, and then spread to nearly every part of the world. It was caused by an unusually severe and deadly Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1. Many of its victims were healthy young adults, in contrast to most influenza outbreaks which predominantly affect juvenile, elderly, or otherwise weakened patients. The Spanish flu lasted from March 1918 to June 1920,[1] spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. It is estimated that anywhere from 20 to 100 million people were killed worldwide, or the approximate equivalent of one third of the population of Europe,[2][3][4] more than double the number killed in World War I.[5] This extraordinary toll resulted from the extremely high infection rate of up to 50% and the extreme severity of the symptoms, suspected to be caused by cytokine storms.
Quote:
How many people could we feed using the same resources we use to create chairs?
Carrying capacity is not about just feeding people. Wish it were that simple. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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