I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:44 am Post subject: The Final Result
I just recently joined this site and it is great. BUT I wonder just how much planning and preparation will be effective in the long run.
I agree that there will be an eventual meltdown in America. Some pockets will do well, others will not. The large city's will block and confiscate all food and fuel for their own citizens. Some smaller towns will band together for survival.
You and I can prepare for some worst case events, but I see hungry and armed people searching out those of us that have prepared. We can't all live in a remote area and be self sufficient to the extent that no one will find us and we live happily ever after.
My point is that we each have to do what we think is necessary to provide for our family in the short run and hope we can connect with others of the same mind set so we can provide and defend our families. I have read here that "community" is the best way to survive....and I think that is the way to go. But that community will generally be those that we live close to where we are at the time "IT" starts.
SO I am preparing for my family where we are today, with what we have on hand and what we can collect...but I feel it is still for the short term.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:59 am Post subject: Re: The Final Result
Which is exactly why people need to band together.
Times are going to get harder and people have to work together for any progression.
Whether it means everyone watches out for the other in your town, community, or neighborhood or people working to keep theives out of areas.
Crime will go up(I soon see gas bandets for everyday cars.) and people are going to have to cope with these changes.
Society doesn't have to fall if people work together.
That could mean everyone pitches in with things like feeding eachother and keeping the streets safe(and the police arent going to vanish either.).
Farmers markets will probably grow quiet a bit as people try and find ways to make extra money here and there.
ppl need to work together so we can soften the blow of these economic hardships.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:23 pm Post subject: Re: The Final Result
Is the long run 20 years? Or are we talking about 1,000 years? No one knows what the future holds, that is why I prepare in an open-ended fashion focusing more on sustainable activities, not hoarding. Hoarding will only last as long as your supplies. If I knew the answer to that question, I wouldn't have anything to worry about.
Being able to make something over and over will have a better chance of getting you through the hard times. I think getting in shape, being mobile, having good health, and having tools are of primary importance. Self-defense is important, but there are many ways to do that, not just guns (hiding, staying un-noticed, etc.).
I think this discussion is going to be too open ended too for the moderators. The push is for discussion about how to do and complete stuff, not "what if".
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:47 pm Post subject: Re: The Final Result
socrates1fan wrote:
Which is exactly why people need to band together.
Times are going to get harder and people have to work together for any progression.
Whether it means everyone watches out for the other in your town, community, or neighborhood or people working to keep theives out of areas.
Crime will go up(I soon see gas bandets for everyday cars.) and people are going to have to cope with these changes.
Society doesn't have to fall if people work together.
That could mean everyone pitches in with things like feeding eachother and keeping the streets safe(and the police arent going to vanish either.).
Farmers markets will probably grow quiet a bit as people try and find ways to make extra money here and there.
ppl need to work together so we can soften the blow of these economic hardships.
Theres a card game, each player is required to place 1 or more cards face down in consecutive order. Such that player 1 plays 1's, player 2 has 2's, 3 has 3's then back around to player 1 having 4's.
If any other player doubts the validity of what was played he calls BULLSHIT. The player who placed the cards turns them over and if he played what he said the player calling bullshit gets the pile. If the cards are not what was played, then the player who played then takes the pile.
Well.
BULLSHIT.
Tell this guy we need to band together. http://www.dickproenneke.com/
Now for "We the people" it will be better to band together. But frankly, theres not too many of them that I really care to see survive. Its too bad you cant pick and choose whos in your community you know? _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:27 pm Post subject: Re: The Final Result
I think that PO carries in itself a positive message after all. Newcomers oftentimes get afraid and follow the 'hide' complex.. meaning how can I survive best as an individual.
As if that would make any difference...
The task is of greater magnitude and touches on mortality, not the individuals mortality but that on a larger scale, which is a novelty as concept.
PO simply kicks the photographer in the face, which is why the media tends to stay away from it.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:40 pm Post subject: Re: The Final Result
albente wrote:
I think that PO carries in itself a positive message after all. Newcomers oftentimes get afraid and follow the 'hide' complex.. meaning how can I survive best as an individual.
As if that would make any difference...
The task is of greater magnitude and touches on mortality, not the individuals mortality but that on a larger scale, which is a novelty as concept.
PO simply kicks the photographer in the face, which is why the media tends to stay away from it.
Very high minded, but I usually don't see anything high minded in the machinations of the real world. The truth is that it's a dog eat dog world.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:45 pm Post subject: Re: The Final Result
I think, speaking for myself and the people I've kept close over the years, that the final result will at least be survival and with some luck, a little bit of prosperity.
I grew up in a rural area and my family still lives there. My parents, uncle, grandmother have all been active members of the community (about 4000 people) through church, fire department, boyscouts, etc. People know them and respect them. It actually gives me a pretty severe inferiority complex... I don't feel like I can ever live up to the excellent example they set for me. However, I've been working hard at forging my own path, yet one that reflects many of the values they instilled in me.
I have also maintained contact with several of my friends from that area, one of whom I just turned on to Peak Oil. I've known the kid since I was six (20 years now, damn time moves fast). We're in the process of tracking down some reasonably priced wooded land to manage and develop into a viable post PO refuge. I've got knowledge of plants, forestry and most things biological. He's got great people skills and should also be good to work with from a defense angle. We plan to talk softly but I pity the fool(s) that gives us any reason to take out the big stick....
I'm working on getting my own house in order first, which I am increasingly optimistic I can make happen. From there I should be able to bring some heavy resources to bear to help protect those I love and remedy problems they might have.
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 4:05 pm Post subject: Re: The Final Result
That's what we all do, we pretend that it does not exist (I exclude the outgoing Peak Oilers who feel the urge to tell the world what's going on..).
I for myself live a normal live and strive to keep it that way. This also is obviously a reflection of the 60's (of which I am a product of) when the perspectives were more stable.
It is an advanced stage of mind to handle denial (since we are trained from day one to be 'honest' and the like..
There are two components of honesty after all (and in hind sight):
- personal (meaning opinionated)
- radical (developing one's own mind - and opinion for that respect)
Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: Re: The Final Result
MeadowMuffin wrote:
I just recently joined this site and it is great. BUT I wonder just how much planning and preparation will be effective in the long run.
I agree that there will be an eventual meltdown in America. Some pockets will do well, others will not. The large city's will block and confiscate all food and fuel for their own citizens. Some smaller towns will band together for survival.
You and I can prepare for some worst case events, but I see hungry and armed people searching out those of us that have prepared. We can't all live in a remote area and be self sufficient to the extent that no one will find us and we live happily ever after.
My point is that we each have to do what we think is necessary to provide for our family in the short run and hope we can connect with others of the same mind set so we can provide and defend our families. I have read here that "community" is the best way to survive....and I think that is the way to go. But that community will generally be those that we live close to where we are at the time "IT" starts.
SO I am preparing for my family where we are today, with what we have on hand and what we can collect...but I feel it is still for the short term.
What will the long term hold for us?
Meadow Muffin
What will the long term hold for us?
No one knows.
Survival is also about comfort...we try to be as comfortable as possible in uncomfortable circumstances. When we get too uncomfortable we can die. It is that simple.
None of us will be ultimate survivors, we all have to die one day. But the successful survivor extends his or her life beyond an earlier death...a death that was caused by ignorance of how to make that life last longer.
A community is like a family - you are stuck with what you got.
You can't dictate what sort of community you wish to have.
We can see this within our households. Many of us can't even get our loved ones on board with survival preparedness, let alone a community.
In addition, if you talk too much about your own work to others you run the risk of a security problem.
Desperate people do desperate things when times are tough.
I prefer to make things less desperate by doing the actual work of preparedness as opposed to having tea with the ladies to chat about doing the hard work that needs to be done.
It is conceivable that a well prepared survivalist could save a small community (neighborhood) whereas an ill prepared neighborhood could not save anyone.
In Richard Heinberg's book 'Power-Down' he contrasts the survivalist mentality with that of the preservationist.
The wiki on this topic:
"A survivalist is a person who anticipates and prepares for a future disruption in local, regional or worldwide social or political order."
"Preservationism...as a term distinguishing between survivalist groups who wish merely to survive a collapse of civilization, and communities who wish to preserve as much of human culture as is possible in the event of collapse."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivalist http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preservationist
Mr. Heinberg talked about a gene bank founded by Nikolai Vavilov in Russia and the dedicated preservationists that guarded the seed and gene pool. He went on to say how 9 of the scientists and workers starved to death because they refused to eat the seeds and tubers in the gene bank.
Now, I don't know if a few seeds or tubers would have made much difference in their surviving. But I can say a survivalist would have eaten the first one to die. While their efforts were most admirable, we can say their life was not an enviable one for us to emulate. And in the end they failed miserably at self preservation and survival.
Mr. Heinberg brings up a good point though, balancing the two areas of survival with preservation. For we may well survive, but if we do not preserve a semblance of a somewhat livable world to survive in, we may not wish to survive in what remains.
There is a famous saying: "First you get rich...then you get holy."
This applies especially to our topic at hand. Our first instinct is to survive. The foundation of our survivalist attitude is grounded in mental preparedness, knowing we have the tools and skill to survive. Then, once we have a semblance of peace, knowing we can survive with our skill level and necessities of survival, we can work on community and preservation.
This is how it has always been with a drowning man...we save ourselves first and others second. And if we balk at natures way...both men drown. It is part of natural law as well and is imbedded in our instinct.
I've written to many big names in the peak oil biz. Some even promote community this and community that. Almost none of them had the courtesy to even respond to my emails...and this is from the 'champions of community.'
We cannot save others if we have 'not prepared' to save them.
It is a hard fact of life that the Survivor must be Selfish in order to SURVIVE.
Just be authentic with what you do and you can be at peace with whatever the outcome is.
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 873 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 6:48 pm Post subject: Re: The Final Result
socrates1fan wrote:
Which is exactly why people need to band together.
Times are going to get harder and people have to work together for any progression.
Whether it means everyone watches out for the other in your town, community, or neighborhood or people working to keep theives out of areas.
Crime will go up(I soon see gas bandets for everyday cars.) and people are going to have to cope with these changes.
Society doesn't have to fall if people work together.
That could mean everyone pitches in with things like feeding eachother and keeping the streets safe(and the police arent going to vanish either.).
Farmers markets will probably grow quiet a bit as people try and find ways to make extra money here and there.
ppl need to work together so we can soften the blow of these economic hardships.
You have hit nail on the head socrates1fan. If you read some of the very hostile posts by some long time members (3 or 4 years) of this blog, you begin to wonder how isolated are these individuals? Some of them talk about going off to their farms ‘in the woods’ with their guns and protecting themselves from the hoards that will be coming.
I have sometimes wondered about the mental health of some of the posters (most are sane other than being obsessed with the certainty of Peak Oil-a reality!).
I believe those that prosper, or even just survive what is coming will do better with a support group than somebody who has prepared alone. There is a scene in the popular movie ‘Gladiator’ where Russell Crowe’s character Maximus Meridius is thrown into the Coliseum with a group of other condemned men waiting for what ever is released to kill them. Maximus shouts to the others “What ever comes through that gate we have a better chance to live if we fight as one”
I believe the first order of business in preparing is to cultivate family and close friendships, as many as you can (remember the old saying ‘friends are the family you choose’-they me be more valuable then your actual blood relatives!). If you can inform them of what is coming great! But don’t write them off if they don’t. Everyone will know about this in about 3 years- they could be invaluable in the future!
Survival and even prospering in the future is going to take many minds. I know I don’t have all the answers and I doubt anyone posting here does either _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 948 Location: I have a whole ward
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 8:09 pm Post subject: Re: The Final Result
Quote:
I have sometimes wondered about the mental health of some of the posters
I agree with SILENTTODD on this point. I think some of the posts reflect a "false bravado" achieved by the annonimity the internet provides. I do not think some of the opinions voiced here would be said if one knew their real identity would be made public.
To me the more disturbing issue is a willingness of free people to sacrifice their liberty in the face of an external threat. Looking for a strong central government to save them.... at the expense of others. I think this can said of the "right wing" and the curtailing of rights under the patriot act due to the threat of radical Islam. It can also be said of the "far left" and the "militant environmentalist" who are willing to take property, increase taxes, and curtail free speech in achieving their goals of political correctness and a more socialist style of government.
We must all work together to suvive peak oil. But that being said, we must all become self sufficient where possible, and not expect government to be able to save us from all our misfortunes.
What can the individual do?
Get out of debt and save, learn how to garden, store at least a six month supply of food and water, learn new things, help your fellow citizens where you can.......and hope for the best! _________________ Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
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