I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 12:03 am Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
TonyPrep wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
KSA flow was 10.8-mbd in May.
Where did this figure come from? It's way bigger than the figures I've seen in recent months and years. The latest EIA IPM has Saudi Arabia at 9.200 mbpd, for the first 3 months of this year, so you are suggesting a 1.6 mbpd increase since then.
EIA All Liquids production was 86.1-mbd in May. The KSA component was 10.8-mbd. Perhaps your reference does not include the KSA share of the Neutral Zone, NGL & other liquids that comprise EIA's figure.
You're right with your last point. The IPM includes the neutral zone in the Persian Gulf figure. However, the IEA OMR, last month, put the neutral zone production at 0.58 mbpd. The Saudi share is normally taken to be half of that. That would put Saudi production at about 9.5 mbpd. Are you saying that the neutral zone production increased by 2.6 mbpd last month? If so, or if not, where did you get your figure from?
As a side note, the IEA-only estimates, for April, showed Saudi production at 9.05 mbpd, including half of neutral zone production.
NGL component is 1.427-mbd. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 2051 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 1:37 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
FreddyH wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
The STEO estimated a sharp downturn in consumption, for May, which left the world awash with oil. By their estimates, inventories should have regained almost all of the draw that had been made this year, up to May. Consumption is not expected to exceed production again until December.
If this is true, we should see prices falling for most of the rest of this year (barring some climatic or geopolitical event).
Agreed. Consumption figures have been aggressively cutback by EIA, to the degree that 2007Q4 regains the Consumption Qtr'ly Record: 86.6-mbd.
The latest STEO has revised figures. The shortfall in April was less but the surplus in May has also been revised lower, from about 1.2mbpd to about 800 mbpd. In fact the figures seem to be all over the place, in this lastest STEO. March's consumption has been revised sharply down, with a huge drop, compared to February and followed by a very large increase in April. June saw a much reduced surplus over May.
Prices have not been dropping (apart from today!), so one wonders if these STEO estimates are any good. By their figures, there has been a surplus for 3 of the last 4 months, and an overall surplus this year.
Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 2:27 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
The_Virginian wrote:
Freddy,
In your site you make a very poor call when you find "all liquids" a good description of available energy. while you may think that we don't care where it comes from... the truth is Ethanol and Bio-diesel are ALREADY impacting prices of commodities (rain/ soy/ coconut etc.)
Peoples are already going hungry, or at the least paying more for basic foodstuffs.
This WILL impact our lives, and may force a re-think of the whole Bio-fuels issue. (thus hastening the peak)
And while I agree we may never "run out of oil", it can't be said that a long tail of production will sustain an industrial lifestyle for the full theoretical lifespan of petroleum as a fuel source and a feedstock.
It's simply as ludicrous as the "doomers" to think that shale and tar sands will sustain an advanced society.
The dependence on foreign oil, especially in the recent Bush administration, hurts the U.S. economy with the roaring gas prices. That in turn affects food prices and many more. Why rely on oil? I found an amazing movie which explains all these issues very clearly, and I highly recommend watching it… and showing it at work, school, or anywhere there are large groups of people. It truly raises awareness of global warming, 9/11, and how we can turn to alternative fuel such as biofuel to save costs and moreover, combat the impeding destruction of the environment. Biofuel does not put C02 into the atmostphere like gasoline.. which causes global warming!
http://www.fieldsoffuel.com http://www.myspace.com/fuelthefilm
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