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lowem
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 19, 2004
Posts: 1172
Location: Singapore
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 Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 8:13 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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USDX has burst past 74 and heading for 76 and people are ready to flush crude oil down the proverbial drain and throw gold bars into the proverbial toilet. For once, the US dollar is showing more spine than the supposed speculators who have been pushing up commodity prices.
Great show going on.
Sit back and watch the fireworks.
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Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
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emersonbiggins
Moderator
Joined: Jul 10, 2005
Posts: 5065
Location: Dallas
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 8:18 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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Repetition doesn't make something a fact.
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"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin |
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chuck6877
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 16, 2005
Posts: 526
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| lowem wrote: | USDX has burst past 74 and heading for 76 and people are ready to flush crude oil down the proverbial drain and throw gold bars into the proverbial toilet. For once, the US dollar is showing more spine than the supposed speculators who have been pushing up commodity prices.
Great show going on.
Sit back and watch the fireworks. |
This was a huge move in the dollar. It's the first time in a year and a half that the USDollar has gone above the 100 day moving average.
Look at the chart below. Where's it going? Going to skyrocket and save the US? Probably not! Look at the 200 day moving average which is just above 75. It probably won't break that by much!
Below:
100 day(20 week) moving average is blue
200 day(40 week) moving average is red
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joewp
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 1628
Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:35 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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Doesn't crude look like it's forming a bullish pennant? That's like classic technical analysis textbook stuff there.
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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 5714
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:05 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| joewp wrote: | | Doesn't crude look like it's forming a bullish pennant? That's like classic technical analysis textbook stuff there. |
Looks like, but the volume behavior is off. It should decrease as the pennant goes on, not increase.
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"So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS |
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yesplease
Fission
Joined: Oct 03, 2006
Posts: 2312
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 1:11 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| emersonbiggins wrote: | | Repetition doesn't make something a fact. |
It doesn't, but the likelihood of a possibly positive change in the Country's administration seems to IMO have resulted in some optimism for the dollar. The current administration has killed many efficiency measures and leveraged markets to the point where, regardless of whether or not they knew the outcome, prices spikes were seen. They've also likely dumped enough money to buy an efficient EV for everyone in America as well as all the electricity needed to power them for the next decade into a conflict that was impossible to win, to the point where "winning" had to be redefined, while preaching about addressing our oil "addiction". Not to mention the debacle w/ meds, w/ the government not able to negotiate w/ drug companies. The list probably goes on for quite some time given what I've seen of the administration's track record. So, do you think investors would be more willing to invest in a weak dollar if they felt that the country was going to stop, albeit slowly, flushing money down the drain at a rate never seen before, while certain sectors who are buddy-buddy w/ "you know who" are seeing record profits/revenues?
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| Professor Membrane wrote: | | Not now son! I'm making...TOAST! |
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Smudger
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 05, 2007
Posts: 155
Location: Great Britain
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 4:17 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| vetusfirma wrote: | | I really don't see how we are going to cope with $4 gas. If you look at what is happening in Europe, and look at the rise in food prices here, you gotta think its getting hard for a lot of people. Our consumer economy will shrink as a result and jobs will go away. The lower end will go first, so people will be losing their 'make ends meet' second job and will spend even less. Unemployment in europe is well over 12%, (can't remember exactly) and we could see those levels by then end of 2009. Congress is already talking about extending unemployment compensation. That just makes the printing presses run faster to make more money, meaning inflation galore. Mr. Good bar has left the building. |
In europe we are nearly at $10 a gallon. There have been a few demonstrations from truck drivers etc but generally people are getting on with it even though it is getting expensive. This problem the US has is the classic addicts problem-$4 is actually cheap so america will be forced to become more efficient which will be painful. The US uses over twice the amount of oil as Europe for the same tasks because we have much higher energy taxes (should be even higher frankly) we have learnt to be more efficient over the past 40 years.
EU15 unemployment is 10.2%.
the employment rates is because europe has a strong social welfare system and the extra taxes for this results in a less efficient employment system. but this does mean that a 10% unemployment rate given the welfare support probably has a better community quality than the US's 5% with much less welfare support. the uk is basically a mix having lower unemployment but also slightly lower welfare support than mainland europe. |
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joewp
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 1628
Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| smallpoxgirl wrote: | | joewp wrote: | | Doesn't crude look like it's forming a bullish pennant? That's like classic technical analysis textbook stuff there. |
Looks like, but the volume behavior is off. It should decrease as the pennant goes on, not increase. |
True, but the very strong volume on the flagpole and the classic lower highs, higher lows might make people unconcerned about the volume.
Oh, the heck with it, it's all a guess anyway. I still think it's going up inexorably do to supply constraints and increasing demand! 
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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 5714
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| Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 11:07 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| joewp wrote: | | True, but the very strong volume on the flagpole and the classic lower highs, higher lows might make people unconcerned about the volume. |
It's a pretty interesting question. I'm just learning about pennants and flags. Apparently their typical behavior is to breakout before the point and replicate the flagpole on the opposite end. That would mean another huge jump next week similar to the one last week. The issue with volume is suppose to be that as it consolidates at a range people lose interest and the volume progressively drops off until a sharp increase in volume which signals the breakout. When the volume pattern is reversed, like now it MAY signal an upcoming reversal instead of a continuation breakout.
| Quote: | | Oh, the heck with it, it's all a guess anyway. I still think it's going up inexorably do to supply constraints and increasing demand! |
Yeah sure. People will be forced to do the rational thing over time, but they'll also predictably do a lot of irrational things on their way there.
_________________
"So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS |
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olekriri
Tar Sands
Joined: Apr 22, 2008
Posts: 33
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| Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 6:52 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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I've bet $100 with a friend of mine on a new record today  |
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charliehelyes
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 27, 2005
Posts: 105
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| Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| the price is flirting with the record at $139.05 |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 5714
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| Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 7:10 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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Well, you made $100. The high so far was $139.89.
_________________
"So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Last edited by smallpoxgirl on Mon Jun 16, 2008 7:12 am; edited 1 time in total |
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dorlomin
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 05, 2007
Posts: 1062
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| Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 7:11 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| $139.89 |
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charliehelyes
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 27, 2005
Posts: 105
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mcgowanjm
Tar Sands
Joined: May 23, 2008
Posts: 63
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| Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 7:43 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($139.16) |
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| joewp wrote: | Doesn't crude look like it's forming a bullish pennant? That's like classic technical analysis textbook stuff there.
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Breakout today.
Flagpole replication says $160 min the next traget. |
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