Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2256 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Something interesting brewing in my little Oz here. For those that don't know, ANB was closed by the FDIC. It was from my area. One thing that was happening around here is the banks were sitting on massive amounts of bad loans, developments and houses, and not foreclosing hoping things would get better. Well, guess what, the FDIC doesn't screw around. They are apparently getting ready to start sending a bunch of unsold properties to market, which will drive existing property values down the toilet. This is spooking the other banks around here who are sitting on properties whose values only have values ascribed to them on some appraisal done two years ago. I know of one bank, one that is supposedly safe, that is trying to beat the FDIC to the selling block and send a massive block of properties for sale in 3 weeks. HA HA HA HA HA. Its all going to go down the toilet bowl real quick. Our office has a client that owes this partcular bank over $500k (belly up builder). If he would allow his properties to be sent to the chopping block now, they were going to reduce his note to $500k (that is a big discount). He said no. They came back and said $150k. He said no, but he would pay them $75k cash. They said OK. And this is the bank that everyone here thinks is safe! Nothing is safe out there right now.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:33 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
nobodypanic wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
dohboi said:
Quote:
OK, I'm interested. Do have any sources on the 9th c. No. Europe resource depletion driven depression? I hadn't heard of it.
On line? Not that I know of, but take a look at “The Hidden History of the Human Race” by M.Creamo Ph.D. and R. Thompson Ph.D.
Also try “The Cycle of Cosmic Catastrophes” by Richard Firestone, Ph.D. and Allen West Ph.D. and associates.
Like I said, there is very little in written materials remaining for about a 150 year span. Much of what we do know is found in tapestries from the period that did survive. Rivers and water supplies became toxic, crops failed, mutations were apparently common and trade must of all but ceased. There are almost no metal artifacts remaining from that period.
What was a prosperous civilization during the Roman occupation, virtually disappeared for 150 years. Depletion of resources is probably not quite the correct term, elimination of resources would be closer. There are several theories as to what happened, from anthropographical causes to an asteroid, comet fragment strike.
We will probably never know exactly what happened, but we do know that the resource base of that time and place disappeared for some extended period of time. The consequences were devastating.
and where would i find those books, next to something like the concise ecology of bigfoot?
i don't think you do your arguments any favors by citing fringe literature, especially when it isn't necessary for supporting your points.
Look Kid, Keep a civil attitude. Your ridicule of a highly respected poster here, says way more about you, than him.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 9:06 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Twilight wrote:
Was Lehman's share issue underwritten? My search skills fail me.
According to the leading New Jersey newspaper, NJ pension funds didn't actually buy very much Lehman stock. If they did, I would be complaining to my state senator right now.
Quote:
6/13/08 Star-Ledger (Newark N.J.) 38
Star-Ledger, The (Newark, NJ)
June 13, 2008
Section: BUSINESS
Lehman dumps its top execs
JOE BEL BRUNO
ASSOCIATED PRESS
The hope at Lehman Bros. is yesterday's management shakeup will contain the damage of a stunning quarterly loss, yet some on Wall Street fear this is one more step toward a more dramatic outcome for the embattled investment bank. The ouster of Chief Financial Officer Erin Callan and Chief Operating Officer Joseph Gregory was an attempt to quell investor anger Lehman's leadership has failed them. But, with a four-day stock plunge that wiped $4.5 billion from the investment bank's market value, it was unclear if the upheaval will be enough to satisfy critics.
Confidence in the company eroded last week, after it announced a nearly $3 billion loss for the second quarter and unveiled a plan to raise $6 billion of fresh capital. The New Jersey Division of Investment, which manages about $81.5 billion for the state's retirement plans, bought $120 million in newly issued common stock and another $60 million in preferred stock.
Callan has been busy trying to convince analysts Lehman's books were in order and the fresh dose of capital would allow traders to pursue new opportunities. But her pep talk failed and shares began to plummet toward a record low.
_________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 3:46 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
threadbear wrote:
nobodypanic wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
dohboi said:
Quote:
OK, I'm interested. Do have any sources on the 9th c. No. Europe resource depletion driven depression? I hadn't heard of it.
On line? Not that I know of, but take a look at “The Hidden History of the Human Race” by M.Creamo Ph.D. and R. Thompson Ph.D.
Also try “The Cycle of Cosmic Catastrophes” by Richard Firestone, Ph.D. and Allen West Ph.D. and associates.
Like I said, there is very little in written materials remaining for about a 150 year span. Much of what we do know is found in tapestries from the period that did survive. Rivers and water supplies became toxic, crops failed, mutations were apparently common and trade must of all but ceased. There are almost no metal artifacts remaining from that period.
What was a prosperous civilization during the Roman occupation, virtually disappeared for 150 years. Depletion of resources is probably not quite the correct term, elimination of resources would be closer. There are several theories as to what happened, from anthropographical causes to an asteroid, comet fragment strike.
We will probably never know exactly what happened, but we do know that the resource base of that time and place disappeared for some extended period of time. The consequences were devastating.
and where would i find those books, next to something like the concise ecology of bigfoot?
i don't think you do your arguments any favors by citing fringe literature, especially when it isn't necessary for supporting your points.
Look Kid, Keep a civil attitude. Your ridicule of a highly respected poster here, says way more about you, than him.
you're right. i shouldn't hold you people to such high standards. what was i thinking?
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 5:52 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Nobodypanic,
Since I started here, I haven't used the ignore button yet. I'll use it now. I come here to learn, and contribute if I can. Discord isn't constructive. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2691 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 6:44 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
nobodypanic,
They're correct. You can start trouble/bickering in any other thread at this site, other than this one (please). Most of us have used this thread as a tool to (seriously) save our financial asses.
This one thread is too important to let it degrade into bickering of any sort.
I also, use it to learn alot & contribute when I can. We simply ask that you do the same. _________________ Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 9:18 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
threadbear said:
Quote:
Look Kid, Keep a civil attitude. Your ridicule of a highly respected poster here, says way more about you, than him.
He’s the one who started the derogatory comments about two publications, that were extremely well researched, and by extremely well qualified and recognized researchers. They have been pier reviewed and critiqued by hundreds. If he has his own personal disagreement with these studies, fine. If he wishes to attack them with ad hominem assaults, he has then defined his own criteria for those who deserve respect.
In my book - this subject is closed, and I will not respond to any other comments on it.
RonMN said:
Quote:
This one thread is too important to let it degrade into bickering of any sort.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 9:34 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
shortonoil wrote:
threadbear said:
Quote:
Look Kid, Keep a civil attitude. Your ridicule of a highly respected poster here, says way more about you, than him.
He’s the one who started the derogatory comments about two publications, that were extremely well researched, and by extremely well qualified and recognized researchers. They have been pier reviewed and critiqued by hundreds. If he has his own personal disagreement with these studies, fine. If he wishes to attack them with ad hominem assaults, he has then defined his own criteria for those who deserve respect.
In my book - this subject is closed, and I will not respond to any other comments on it.
RonMN said:
Quote:
This one thread is too important to let it degrade into bickering of any sort.
I agree.
For anyone who is interested, Amazon's web site has quite a lot of extensive comments about these books.
Is there any other books about the 9th/10th centuries that would provide some background about economic collapse? _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 756 Location: Illinois
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 12:24 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
DantesPeak wrote:
Is there any other books about the 9th/10th centuries that would provide some background about economic collapse?
Thats around the time of Charlemagne. I have not read too much on that era, but it seems Europe was actually in an ascent during that period, starting to claw its way out of the dark ages.
Quote:
Conditions in Western Europe began to improve after 700 as Europe experienced an agricultural boom that would continue until at least 1100.[10] A study of limestone deposited in the Mediterranean seabed concludes that there was a substantial increase in solar radiation received between 600 and 900.[11] The first signs of Europe's recovery on the battlefield are the defense of Constantinople in 717 and the victory of the Franks over the Arabs at the Battle of Tours in 732....Under the Macedonian dynasty (867–1025), Byzantium enjoyed a golden age and a revival of classical learning.
# Around 800 A.D., Charlemagne, the grandson of Charles Martel, did much to pull Europe out of the trenches of darkness–building schools, emphasizing education and even trying to learn how to read and write himself. In his reign, he nearly doubled the size of his kingdom, converted countless pagans to Christianity and sparked the first real cultural renaissance in more than three centuries.
Dark Ages _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 7:57 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
shortonoil wrote:
threadbear said:
Quote:
Look Kid, Keep a civil attitude. Your ridicule of a highly respected poster here, says way more about you, than him.
He’s the one who started the derogatory comments about two publications, that were extremely well researched, and by extremely well qualified and recognized researchers. They have been pier reviewed and critiqued by hundreds. If he has his own personal disagreement with these studies, fine. If he wishes to attack them with ad hominem assaults, he has then defined his own criteria for those who deserve respect.
In my book - this subject is closed, and I will not respond to any other comments on it.
RonMN said:
Quote:
This one thread is too important to let it degrade into bickering of any sort.
I agree.
I hope you realize I was addressing the other poster, not you, Shorty. BTW, I'm very familiar with the books, and think they show solid scholarship.
Joined: Mar 28, 2005 Posts: 399 Location: Northern California, USA
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 11:56 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
kublikhan wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
Is there any other books about the 9th/10th centuries that would provide some background about economic collapse?
A while back I listened to Dr Ken Harl's series of lectures on the history of Asia minor. 800 to 900ad was not terrible. It's just that the Arabs and the Bulgarians on either side were on quite the rampage and there was constant warfare. However, Byzantium lasted longer than any other civilization besides the Egyptians, almost 1000 years. Here's a little slice of life from the period care of Wikipedia...
Quote:
Although traditionally attributed to Basil I (867–886), initiator of the Macedonian dynasty, the "Byzantine renaissance" has been more recently ascribed to the reforms of his predecessor, Michael III (842–867) and his wife's counsellor, the erudite Theoktistos. The latter in particular favoured culture at the court, and, with a careful financial policy, steadily increased the gold reserves of the Empire. The rise of the Macedonian dynasty coincided with internal developments which strengthened the religious unity of the empire.[63] The iconoclast movement was experiencing a steep decline: this favoured its soft suppression by the emperors and the reconciliation of the religious strife that had drained the imperial resources in the previous centuries. Despite occasional tactical defeats, the administrative, legislative, cultural and economic situation continued to improve under Basil's successors, especially with Romanos I Lekapenos (920–944). The theme system reached its definitive form in this period. The church establishment began to loyally support the imperial cause, and the power of the landowning class was limited in favour of agricultural small holders, who made up an important part of the military force of the Empire. These favourable conditions contributed to the increasing ability of the emperors to wage war against the Arabs.
The Great Famine of 1315–1317 (occasionally dated 1315-1322) was the first of a series of large-scale crises that struck Europe early in the 14th century, causing millions of deaths over an extended number of years and marking a clear end to an earlier period of growth and prosperity during the 11th to 13th centuries. Starting with bad weather in the spring of 1315, universal crop failures lasted through 1316 until the summer of 1317; Europe did not fully recover until 1322. It was a period marked by extreme levels of criminal activity, disease and mass death, infanticide, and cannibalism. It had consequences for Church, State, European society and future calamities to follow in the 14th century.
I found this part of the article particular analogous to Peak Oil
Quote:
During the Medieval Warm Period (the period prior to 1350) the population of Europe had exploded, reaching levels that were not matched again in some places until the 19th century (parts of France today are less populous than at the beginning of the 14th century). However, the yield ratios of wheat (the number of seeds one could eat per seed planted) had been dropping since 1280 and food prices had been climbing. In good weather the ratio could be as high as 7:1, while during bad years as low as 2:1—that is, for every seed planted, two seeds were harvested, one for next year's seed, and one for food. By comparison, modern farming has ratios of 200:1 or more.
and the recent food price rises
Quote:
In the spring of 1315, unusually heavy rain began in much of Europe. Throughout the spring and summer, it continued to rain and the temperature remained cool. Under these conditions grain could not ripen. Grain was brought indoors in urns and pots. The straw and hay for the animals could not be cured and there was no fodder for the livestock. The price of food began to rise. Food prices in England doubled between spring and midsummer. Salt, the only way to cure and preserve meat, was difficult to obtain because it could not be evaporated in the wet weather; it went from 30 shillings to 40 shillings. In Lorraine, wheat prices increased by 320 percent and peasants could no longer afford bread. Stores of grain for long-term emergencies were limited to the lords and nobles. Because of the general increased population pressures, even lower-than-average harvests meant some people would go hungry; there was little margin for failure. People began to harvest wild edible roots, plants, grasses, nuts, and bark in the forests.
Some even thought it was more devastating than the bubonic plague...
Quote:
The height of the famine was reached in 1317 as the wet weather hung on. Finally, in the summer the weather returned to its normal patterns. By now, however, people were so weakened by diseases such as pneumonia, bronchitis, tuberculosis, and other sicknesses, and much of the seed stock had been eaten, that it was not until 1325 that the food supply returned to relatively normal conditions and the population began to increase again. Historians debate the toll but it is estimated that 10%-25% of the population of many cities and towns died. While the Black Death (1338–1375) would kill more, for many the Great Famine was worse. While the plague swept through an area in a matter of months, the Great Famine lingered for years, drawing out the suffering of those who would slowly starve to death, face cannibalism, child-murder and rampant crime.
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 3:22 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
The 14th Century really was a crummy time to be alive... the Four Horsemen were positively rampant. War, climate change, crop failure, plague..
Plus ca change... _________________ "Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 7:25 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
DantesPeak wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
threadbear said:
Quote:
Look Kid, Keep a civil attitude. Your ridicule of a highly respected poster here, says way more about you, than him.
He’s the one who started the derogatory comments about two publications, that were extremely well researched, and by extremely well qualified and recognized researchers. They have been pier reviewed and critiqued by hundreds. If he has his own personal disagreement with these studies, fine. If he wishes to attack them with ad hominem assaults, he has then defined his own criteria for those who deserve respect.
In my book - this subject is closed, and I will not respond to any other comments on it.
RonMN said:
Quote:
This one thread is too important to let it degrade into bickering of any sort.
I agree.
For anyone who is interested, Amazon's web site has quite a lot of extensive comments about these books.
Is there any other books about the 9th/10th centuries that would provide some background about economic collapse?
The economy that was great was that of ancient Rome, and its collapse, atleast economically, started during the second century and reached incredible heights (of stupidity) during the third century.
middle ages started with a completely collapsed economy: most money became useless/obsolete and regular folk went back to bartering goods against other goods... not pretty.
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