I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 5:59 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia Plans Increase in Oil Output
OilFinder2 wrote:
The API of Khursaniyah is actually around 28-29, which is on the border between light and medium grade. So it's not really "heavy" oil. The sulfur content is about 2.8%, which is moderately high, but not the highest (source). So overall, this sounds like about "average" grade oil.
Sure, but I don't see any announcements that all of the 500,000 bpd increase will be solely from Khursaniyah's average crude. Do you?
Is there anything stopping the Saudi's from adding 50,000 bpd of Khursaniyah oil and 450,000 of existing heavy crude that refiners have already said they don't have the capacity to deal with and calling it a 500,000 bpd increase?
My hat's off to you if you really know the profile of this "new" Saudi production before it comes on the market. I'd just as soon be skeptical until it gets to customers.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 6:15 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia Plans Increase in Oil Output
Niagara wrote:
What happens if KSA actually does increase production by 500,000/day but the markets aren't calmed?
Then what?
It's like aging. We can go the gym, run about parks like twats, bo tox, liposuction- whatever inevitability staving off one does and you still get old.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 9:08 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia Plans Increase in Oil Output
I can't access the article below at this time, but it seems to confirm Platts Oilgram report that Khursaniyah is not gearing up for full production soon. So - where is SA going to get that 500,000 bpd???
Quote:
Saudis See Project Deadlines Slip
As Saudi Aramco struggles to start pumping from the 500,000 barrel per day Khursaniyah project, its next set of oil projects looks likely to miss start-up deadlines too. These include the high-profile 1.2 million b/d Khurais field, which may be facing delays of at least six months, and the smaller Shaybah and Nuayyim projects, which could also be pushed back. (Monday, June 16, 2008)
International Oil Daily _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 9:27 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia Plans Increase in Oil Output
DantesPeak quoted:
Quote:
As Saudi Aramco struggles to start pumping from the 500,000 barrel per day Khursaniyah project, its next set of oil projects looks likely to miss start-up deadlines too. These include the high-profile 1.2 million b/d Khurais field, which may be facing delays of at least six months, and the smaller Shaybah and Nuayyim projects, which could also be pushed back. (Monday, June 16, 2008)
I didn’t save the link, but I read somewhere that their stated problem was getting an NG reclamation plant going! I guess it’s possible, but it doesn’t sound likely.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 10:16 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia Plans Increase in Oil Output
I remember seeing a recent article in Middle East Oil and Gas Journal that suggests Shaybah has been fast tracked and that Khurais was back on track. I'll have to dig around to find that. My suspicion is that not all of the 500 K will come from Khursaniyah...again need to dig a bit.
I think it is important to note that the Saudis have the best track record in the industry for delivering projects on time and on budget. A couple of months delay is small beer compared to the years of project delays we've seen in the Caspian, West Africa and the GOM.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 11:12 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia Plans Increase in Oil Output
shortonoil wrote:
DantesPeak quoted:
Quote:
As Saudi Aramco struggles to start pumping from the 500,000 barrel per day Khursaniyah project, its next set of oil projects looks likely to miss start-up deadlines too. These include the high-profile 1.2 million b/d Khurais field, which may be facing delays of at least six months, and the smaller Shaybah and Nuayyim projects, which could also be pushed back. (Monday, June 16, 2008)
I didn’t save the link, but I read somewhere that their stated problem was getting an NG reclamation plant going! I guess it’s possible, but it doesn’t sound likely.
Yes, the NG plant is the hang up, as far as I can tell. Check out this very good (free!) article. Seems I was right that Khursaniyah has hardly got going.
Quote:
Farther, deeper, colder is now the mantra as crude producers scour the globe. But new finds require costly technologies - ones that only a high oil price can sustain
OTTAWA -- If Saudi Aramco's $7-billion (U.S.) Khursaniyah oil project had come on stream at the end of 2007 as scheduled, the world economy might not be staggering under $135 crude prices.
The planned 500,000 barrels a day of Khursaniyah production would have been like a cool drink of water for an oil market thirsting for additional supply.
Instead, the project was stalled by delays in the construction of a processing plant needed to treat the natural gas liquids that Khursaniyah would produce along with the light, relatively sweet crude oil.
Not far from Khursaniyah, in the eastern part of the kingdom, the state-owned oil monopoly, Saudi Aramco, is spending $17-billion to develop the vast Khurais field.
Facing unrelenting pressure from the U.S. government to boost production and ease soaring crude prices, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi recently said the Khursaniyah project had begun to pump small volumes of oil.
The biggest volume increases in May came from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Saudi production was estimated at 9.24 million b/d, up 140,000 b/d from April's 9.1 million b/d. Saudi Arabia said last month its June production would average 9.45 million b/d. Iraqi volumes, which averaged 2.38 million b/d in April, rose to 2.49 million b/d in May, an increase of 110,000 b/d. Other smaller increases came from Angola, Ecuador, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Venezuela. The increases were partly offset, however, by output drops in Iran and Libya.
The survey shows the OPEC-12 exceeding their 29.673 million b/d target by 77,000 b/d. A senior OPEC delegate said Monday that OPEC ceilings and quotas had become largely irrelevant and that OPEC had a "tacit" understanding that those members capable of boosting crude production should supply as much oil as world oil markets needed.
Holy shti! Is this 1970 in the lower 48? _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2730 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 7:19 pm Post subject: Learning From the Oil Shock
Learning From the Oil Shock
Quote:
The world may have arrived at the equivalent of Peak Oil. Old fields are in decline, while governments limit new oil projects.
Do not underestimate oil's fallout. As a practical matter, the world may have arrived at Peak Oil: that condition when dwindling oil reserves no longer permit much, if any, annual increase in production. This may not be literally true; estimates of vast undiscovered oil reservoirs imply that Peak Oil is decades away. But governments that control 75 percent or more of known oil reserves are behaving as if Peak Oil is already here. They're hoarding a scarce commodity by limiting new exploration projects. Meanwhile, production at some old fields is dropping rapidly. Spare capacity has been depleted, as demand outruns new supply.
newsweek _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2730 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 7:33 pm Post subject: 'North Sea oil will last for 100 years'
'North Sea oil will last for 100 years'
Quote:
Dr Richard Pike, a former oil industry consultant and now the chief executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry, said: "Rather than only getting 20 to 30 billion barrels [from the North Sea] we are probably looking at more than twice that amount."
His analysis is supported by petroleum experts who believe there are some 300 fields off the coast of Britain still to be explored and tapped properly. If energy prices continue to soar, companies will become increasingly willing to tap previously uneconomic oil fields.
Dr Pike claims that the industry knows the true figures but refuses to release them because of commercial secrecy.
newscientist _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1369 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia Plans Increase in Oil Output
kjmclark wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:
The API of Khursaniyah is actually around 28-29, which is on the border between light and medium grade. So it's not really "heavy" oil. The sulfur content is about 2.8%, which is moderately high, but not the highest (source). So overall, this sounds like about "average" grade oil.
Sure, but I don't see any announcements that all of the 500,000 bpd increase will be solely from Khursaniyah's average crude. Do you?
Is there anything stopping the Saudi's from adding 50,000 bpd of Khursaniyah oil and 450,000 of existing heavy crude that refiners have already said they don't have the capacity to deal with and calling it a 500,000 bpd increase?
My hat's off to you if you really know the profile of this "new" Saudi production before it comes on the market. I'd just as soon be skeptical until it gets to customers.
Saudi Arabia is completing a huge expansion program in its oil industry that is expected to bring its production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009. As part of that expansion, Saudi Aramco, the country’s national oil company, is planning to start soon an oil field, called Khursaniyah, with a daily production rate of 500,000 barrels.
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