I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Saudi Arabia is completing a huge expansion program in its oil industry that is expected to bring its production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009. As part of that expansion, Saudi Aramco, the country’s national oil company, is planning to start soon an oil field, called Khursaniyah, with a daily production rate of 500,000 barrels.
Never mind, my 5th grade daughter does a better job of reading critically than you've managed.
You appear to be reading this statement as "Saudi Arabia has announced that it is increasing it's production by 500,000 barrels next month, all of which will come from their Khursaniyah oil field." Read it again. Carefully this time. That is not what it says.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1371 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 8:42 pm Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia Plans Increase in Oil Output
Let's see . . . Saudis say they're gonna increase oil production by 500K bpd. It just so happens that they're also about to start production at an oil field named Khursaniyah which will produce . . . 500K bpd. So I wonder where this new 500K bpd is gonna come from? Hmmm . . . _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 9:17 pm Post subject: Re: 'North Sea oil will last for 100 years'
So it might be in the oil companies interests to understate their reserves, thereby hoping to duck beneath the radar of government revenue raisers and also managing to keep on producing longer than expected thus keeping shareholders happy for longer. But, about three quarters of global production comes not from private oil companies, but from state enterprises and they (or at least those in OPEC) have been shown to be probably grossly overstating their reserves. Taking what may be the case in part of the oil industry and extrapolating it out over the globe may be drawing a bit of a long bow.
As for the North Sea lasting another 100 years and producing the same again as it has over the last 35 years. Big deal. Production rates are unlikely to ever rise back to where they were a few years ago (or even rise again, full stop).
These sort of reports get leapt on and reported in the press, with the implication being that it's OK, don't worry, go back to sleep, there's plenty more oil. But the UK is now a net importer of oil and, if they carry on as they are, they will have to import increasing amounts of foreign oil in the future. The best they can hope for is that the decline in their domestic production is less steep than expected.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 10:46 pm Post subject: Re: 'North Sea oil will last for 100 years'
AlCzervik wrote:
Graeme, do you believe this horseshit when North Sea is already in decline?
As a professional earth scientist working outside the oil industry, I do believe what the chief executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry says, i.e. there is likely to be twice as much oil than previously thought still be extracted not only from the North Sea but also worldwide (see the New Scientist article). I don't think he said that oil will last 100 years.
In any case, what we have now is a problem of demand exceeding supply which the oil industry will exploit to obtain maximum profit in order to extend their exploration activities and give returns to their shareholders. If they are not careful, they will shoot themselves in the foot because there may well be a permanent global move away from oil to alternative fuels, which is possibly what Saudi Arabia and other producers now fear. Hence their recent announcement to increase supply in the hope that this will reduce prices, and to have meetings with all producers and consumers.
Fatih Birol has already stated that the world will have an increasingly difficult task of keeping supply up with demand from China, India and Middle Eastern counties. He told us to increase supply, use more alternative fuels, and increase efficiency (use economical transport) - see also his motto below.
I agree with thylacine that the decline in North Sea oil will be less steep than expected. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3623 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 11:26 pm Post subject: Re: 'North Sea oil will last for 100 years'
Pike said his hunch was based on "anecdotal evidence" (in the stories from last week), now it's a bit more meaty:
Quote:
Oil companies produce a bell-shaped probability distribution for how much each oil reservoir might hold, and then quote as an indicator of the reservoir's capacity a figure they are 90 per cent certain they can exceed. When publishing a result for multiple reservoirs, they simply add up the figures for each one. And this is where the problem lies.
"They should be combining the bell curves for each reservoir," says Pike. Adding the numbers for each reservoir ignores statistical information about the extremes of the distribution, giving a result which underestimates the true total figure for all the reservoirs.
According to published estimates, there are 1200 billion barrels still to be extracted, but Pike says there could in fact be twice as much. "The figures are almost meaningless and just provide a conservative estimate for shareholders."
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Dec 02, 2007 Posts: 181 Location: Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 11:46 pm Post subject: Re: 'North Sea oil will last for 100 years'
Question #1 - what alternatives are oil executives afraid the world is going to turn to that in themselves will require no OIL/NG/COAL to create and bring online in the first place? (ie. wind, solar nuclear) Have I missed some alternative fuel source that require zero energy to invent/research/manufacture/implement?
Question #2 - if these figures are true, and if the cost of fossil fuels et al are more tomorrow than they are today, what's the point of extracting them if the cost to produce the infrastructure to extract these fossils will simply make these extracted findings MORE MONEY?
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 2:30 am Post subject: Gazprom Neft Aims to Become Russia’s Leading Oil Producer
Gazprom Neft Aims to Become Russia’s Leading Oil Producer
Quote:
Gazprom Neft (GZPFY.PK), the oil production subsidiary of Gazprom (OGZPY.PK), has stated in its 2007 Annual Report that it expects to more than double oil output to 2.0 million barrels per day by 2020 from a production average of 864,000 bpd in 2007.
Gazprom Neft's production target is assessed to be attainable, mainly due to the Company's ownership of the massive, and largely undeveloped South Priobskoye oil field, one of Russia's largest known oil fields, known in Russia as "the Pearl of West Siberia."
The total Priobskoye oil field is a relatively new oil field in Russia, with oil production only starting up on a large scale in 2001 in the Northern portion of the field. Production for the field is ramping up rapidly on a large scale. Gazprom Neft produced approximately 125,000 barrels per day of oil from Priobskoye in 2007, and announced in mid 2007 that it plans to increase production by 2.6 times to over 300,000 bpd in 2010. ("Russian Gazpromneft-Khantos Oil Output To Rise 2.6-Fold by 2010,” Energy and Commodities Digest, 8/21/07). Gazprom Neft also announced a development budget of $US11.22Bn for the next three years for all undeveloped fields, with a large chunk to South Priobskoye.
Can production increase further beyond 2010 at Priobskoye? The entire Priobskoye oil field is very large, measuring between 5466 square kilometers as a whole in size compared to Ghawar (world's largest oil field, located in Saudi Arabia), which totals approximately 7,500 square kilometers in size.
The study indicated 27.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil at Priobskoye -- it is ambiguous, however, if the study refers to all of Priobskoye or the Northern portion of the field. In the case that the number refers to the total field, the number of 27.6 billion recoverable barrels would place Priobskoye as one of the 10 largest oil fields in the world.
seekingalpha _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2736 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 3:39 am Post subject: Re: 'North Sea oil will last for 100 years'
killercane, Your questions are not easy to answer in a few minutes but I'll try. At the moment, the dominant alternative fuel is ethanol. You can see from the RFA web site that many countries are planning to introduce blends of ethanol into gasoline mix, and most have import tariffs. The latter is what Brazil is complaining about because there is no global free trade for ethanol yet. The USA and other countries may lift tariffs in the near future. Of course, ethanol production will increase worldwide and this will displace oil consumption. Production in the US is moving from corn to other sources such as switchgrass, wood and waste.
Other alternative fuels are biobutanol, and "renewable petroleum". There are likely to be others that I'm not aware of or missed (biodiesel). In addition, manufacture and sale of battery and fuel-cell vehicles, as well as increasing use of public transport (bus/train) possible compulsory rationing will also reduce oil demand.
I'm sure that the cost of producing conventional (and unconventional) oil is not yet prohibitive, and that this energy source will be sold on world markets for many years to come. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 4:58 am Post subject: Re: Saudi Arabia Plans Increase in Oil Output
I'm wondering what exactly "start soon" means. Next month? Next year? Next decade?
Edit: SA might increase production, but I'm sceptic untill they say something official. "People in the know" doesn't cut it really. _________________ "We cut the earth until it bleeds, rain ashes from the sky
Just to make a light that no one can see"
-- VNV Nation - Carbon
Last edited by Pholostan on Sun Jun 15, 2008 11:37 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 7:14 am Post subject: Re: 'North Sea oil will last for 100 years'
Drifter wrote:
Yes, the North Sea is in decline and I seriously doubt this article is correct. But let's give Graeme a break, shall we? I don't agree with much of what he posts, but at least he is offering a mature, intelligent counter-argument without name calling and such.
Things are looking pretty bad lately in the news, but we should all try to remain at least a little bit open-minded.
I agree with you in spirit but would like to point out that the way he chooses the subjects for his threads is very peculiar behaviour. Almost as if he is asking for people to come in and start a discourse in a very aggressive manner. If you ask me, its borderline trolling. Just in a more sophisticated manner. You can reason around my argument of course, but sometimes the sheer volume of his threads with almost all of them titled in a very fighty manner makes me feel sad.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4753 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 7:18 am Post subject: Re: 'North Sea oil will last for 100 years'
phaeryen wrote:
Drifter wrote:
Yes, the North Sea is in decline and I seriously doubt this article is correct. But let's give Graeme a break, shall we? I don't agree with much of what he posts, but at least he is offering a mature, intelligent counter-argument without name calling and such.
Things are looking pretty bad lately in the news, but we should all try to remain at least a little bit open-minded.
I agree with you in spirit but would like to point out that the way he chooses the subjects for his threads is very peculiar behaviour. Almost as if he is asking for people to come in and start a discourse in a very aggressive manner. If you ask me, its borderline trolling. Just in a more sophisticated manner. You can reason around my argument of course, but sometimes the sheer volume of his threads with almost all of them titled in a very fighty manner makes me feel sad.
This story is about LS9 - e coli that leave crude oil as their waste product. Up to a barrel a week, I see. "Renewable Petroleum" sounds like a pumpjack powered by a wind turbine. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
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